摘要：Objectives. To assess potential reductions in premature mortality that could have been achieved in 2008 to 2012 if the minimum wage had been $15 per hour in New York City. Methods. Using the 2008 to 2012 American Community Survey, we performed simulations to assess how the proportion of low-income residents in each neighborhood might change with a hypothetical $15 minimum wage under alternative assumptions of labor market dynamics. We developed an ecological model of premature death to determine the differences between the levels of premature mortality as predicted by the actual proportions of low-income residents in 2008 to 2012 and the levels predicted by the proportions of low-income residents under a hypothetical $15 minimum wage. Results. A $15 minimum wage could have averted 2800 to 5500 premature deaths between 2008 and 2012 in New York City, representing 4% to 8% of total premature deaths in that period. Most of these avertable deaths would be realized in lower-income communities, in which residents are predominantly people of color. Conclusions. A higher minimum wage may have substantial positive effects on health and should be considered as an instrument to address health disparities. The 1938 Fair Labor Standard Act (29 U.S.C.A. § 201 et seq.), which established a minimum wage in the United States, declared that its intention was the “elimination of labor conditions detrimental to the maintenance of the minimum standards of living necessary for health, efficiency and well-being of workers.” The US minimum wage reached its highest real dollar value in 1968, more than 45 years ago, and the federal minimum wage was last increased in 2009. As research on income and health consistently demonstrates that lower income and poverty are associated with worse health outcomes and earlier death, 1–5 the recent national advocacy across the United States to raise the minimum wage as a way of improving the income of the working poor could also have important health consequences. 6–11 In New York City (NYC), which is among the most expensive places to live in the United States, the standard minimum wage is currently $9.00 per hour. 12 Recent legislation has established a $15.00 per hour minimum wage in several municipalities, including San Francisco and Seattle, 11 and advocates in NYC are calling for a similar increase. 13 The impact of a $15 minimum wage on family and neighborhood income depends critically on the employment responses to a higher minimum wage. Recent studies have found a range of responses, from a small increase to a modest reduction in employment among low-wage workers following a minimum wage hike. 14–18 Although the economic impact of increasing the minimum wage has been the primary focus of debate in NYC, 19 less attention has been given to the possible health consequences of such a policy, including the reduction of health inequities. To fill that gap, we explored the potential impact of a $15 per hour minimum wage on all-cause premature mortality among NYC residents. We used area-based measures of income and premature mortality to create an ecological model and explore the reduction in premature mortality that could have been achieved from 2008 to 2012 if NYC’s minimum wage had been $15 per hour during that period. Recognizing the uncertain effects of a higher minimum wage on the NYC labor market, we assumed 3 alternative scenarios in the analysis.
