摘要：Objectives. We explored differences in criminal convictions between holders and nonholders of a concealed handgun license (CHL) in Texas. Methods. The Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) provides annual data on criminal convictions of holders and nonholders of CHLs. We used 2001 to 2009 DPS data to investigate the differences in the distribution of convictions for these 2 groups across 9 types of criminal offenses. We calculated z scores for the differences in the types of crimes for which CHL holders and nonholders were convicted. Results. CHL holders were much less likely than nonlicensees to be convicted of crimes. Most nonholder convictions involved higher-prevalence crimes (burglary, robbery, or simple assault). CHL holders’ convictions were more likely to involve lower-prevalence crimes, such as sexual offenses, gun offenses, or offenses involving a death. Conclusions. Our results imply that expanding the settings in which concealed carry is permitted may increase the risk of specific types of crimes, some quite serious in those settings. These increased risks may be relatively small. Nonetheless, policymakers should consider these risks when contemplating reducing the scope of gun-free zones. In 2007, American civilians owned 270 million firearms (88.8 firearms/100 persons), making the US population the most heavily armed civilian population in the world. 1 These firearms are in the hands of approximately 40% of the population. More than 60% of gun owners own multiple firearms, with 13% of Americans owning 4 or more firearms. 2,3 Estimates indicate that 39% of firearms owned by Americans are handguns, and 61% are rifles or shotguns. 3 In recent decades, the number of individuals legally permitted to carry concealed handguns has increased dramatically. In 1987, 10 states allowed citizens to carry concealed handguns; by 2010 more than 40 states had concealed carry laws. 4 Not only are more states allowing concealed carry, but those states are issuing many more licenses each year. In 2000, Pennsylvania officials issued 95 334 concealed carry licenses. In 2009, that number had increased by 74%, to 165 857 licenses to carry a concealed handgun. 5 In Texas, 2.6% (461 724 individuals) of the population aged 21 years or older held a concealed handgun license (CHL) in 2011. 6 The public heath impact of firearms on American society is a contentious issue. With the growth in CHL legislation, the legal carrying of concealed handguns has become an element in the ongoing academic and policy debates over the relationship between public health and firearms. Thus far, empirical results indicate that CHL legislation lowered crime rates, 7,8 increased crime rates, 9 or had no significant effect on crime rates. 10 As the National Research Council concluded in 2004, “with the current evidence it is not possible to determine that there is a causal link between the passage of right-to-carry laws and crime rates.” 11 (p150) However, discussion of different aspects of CHL legislation and the behavior of those who seek or have a CHL has been limited. We will not have a complete picture of the relationship between CHL legislation and criminality until we consider the behavior of individuals holding a CHL. The limited research available on this population indicates that CHL holders with a felony record are more likely to be involved in firearm-related crimes than are applicants with a felony record who are denied a license. 12 Other research indicates that crime rates for CHL licensees with a previous criminal record vary significantly from criminality among CHL licensees with no criminal record. 13 CHL advocates do not focus on the CHL population and differences within that population. They focus on the more general argument that those allowed to carry concealed handguns are much less likely than the average American to engage in criminality. 13,14 Handguns are, therefore, being legally placed in “safe hands.” The most common evidence provided to support the safe hands argument involves a broad comparison of rates of criminality between CHL licensees and those not licensed to carry a concealed handgun. Figure 1 provides an example of this style of analysis. Open in a separate window FIGURE 1— Texas Department of Public Safety rates of convictions data used to prove that holders of concealed handgun licenses commit few crimes. Note. CHL = concealed handgun license. Source . DemocraticUnderground.com. 15 Data such as these lead to statements like that of Charles Cotton on the Texas CHL Blog: The latest comparison of crime statistics between Texas Concealed Handgun Licensees and the general population (over age 20) is shocking—shockingly good that is! … In spite of a 56% increase in the number of Texas CHL’s (258,168 in 2006; 402914 in 2009). CHL’s were 15 times less likely to commit a crime than the general public in Texas, as compared to 7 times less likely in 2006. That’s right, and [ sic ] already excellent track record was over twice as good. 16 These data also led to commentary from Harold Nemerov, a columnist for the Texas State Rifle Association’s Sportsman magazine, who noted that CHL holders “voluntarily undergo background checks normally reserved for sensitive jobs or criminal arrests, in order to certify that they rank among the most law-abiding citizens prior to receiving their license. These data prove that trust has not been in vain.” 17 Our research should add to our understanding of the relationship between CHL holders and public health because it focused on the issue of criminality among CHL holders. Previous studies supporting the safe hands argument compared overall conviction rates between CHL holders and other Texans (nonholders). We analyzed the same data source often used to promote the safe hands argument to investigate a different question: in Texas, how did the crimes for which CHL holders were convicted differ from the crimes for which other Texans (nonlicensees) were convicted?
