摘要：In 2013, Minnesota increased cigarette taxes by $1.75, the largest US state increase since 2000. We obtained convenience store data of cigarette sales from January 2012 to December 2013 from the Nielsen Company. Analysis revealed significantly greater year-to-year reductions in numbers of packs purchased during posttax (−12.1%) than pretax (−3.2%; P < .001) periods. The results provide contemporary evidence that, despite reduced prevalence and increased tobacco control efforts, tax increases remain an effective tobacco control strategy. Tobacco is the greatest cause of preventable death in the United States, leading to the premature deaths of more than 480 000 Americans annually. 1 Tobacco control strategies to reduce that harm include restrictions on marketing, 2 smoke-free policies, 3 persuasion and education through mass media, 4 assisting smokers to quit, 5 and increasing tobacco taxes. 6 Collectively these efforts have significantly reduced smoking rates, with prevalence declining from about 42.0% in 1964 to about 18.0% today. 1 Previous studies of the effects of past tobacco price increases have found a price elasticity of demand approximately equal to 0.4; that is, a 10.0% increase in the price of cigarettes has historically been associated with a 4.0% reduction in demand for cigarettes. 6 However, in a climate of decreased smoking prevalence, policymakers may question whether estimates from earlier eras remain applicable. For example, a sustained comprehensive tobacco control program in Minnesota has reduced adult smoking prevalence from 22.1% in 1999 to 16.1% in 2010. 7 Those individuals who continue smoking in 2014, despite statewide comprehensive indoor bans and strong antismoking norms, may differ in important ways from former smokers who have quit, potentially including their responsiveness to price increases. On July 1, 2013, Minnesota increased the combined cigarette excise and sales tax from $1.60 to $3.35 per pack, providing an opportunity for additional study of the impact of tobacco tax increases. The increase took Minnesota from having the 27th highest US state cigarette excise tax to the 7th highest and was the largest instantaneous state increase on tobacco taxes in the United States since 2000. 8 We investigated smokers’ behavioral responses to the tax increase, as measured through changes in sales of cigarette packs. We obtained the data from the Nielsen Company convenience store tracking service, which has been used to evaluate other tobacco control policies, including minimum pricing laws, 9 restrictions on locations where cigarettes may be sold 10 or advertised, 11 and the descriptor ban on advertising “light” cigarettes. 12 We used sales data to test the hypothesis that consumption of cigarettes would decrease after the tax increase was implemented.
