摘要：Objectives. We examined the probability of an obese person attaining normal body weight. Methods. We drew a sample of individuals aged 20 years and older from the United Kingdom’s Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 2004 to 2014. We analyzed data for 76 704 obese men and 99 791 obese women. We excluded participants who received bariatric surgery. We estimated the probability of attaining normal weight or 5% reduction in body weight. Results. During a maximum of 9 years’ follow-up, 1283 men and 2245 women attained normal body weight. In simple obesity (body mass index = 30.0–34.9 kg/m2), the annual probability of attaining normal weight was 1 in 210 for men and 1 in 124 for women, increasing to 1 in 1290 for men and 1 in 677 for women with morbid obesity (body mass index = 40.0–44.9 kg/m2). The annual probability of achieving a 5% weight reduction was 1 in 8 for men and 1 in 7 for women with morbid obesity. Conclusions. The probability of attaining normal weight or maintaining weight loss is low. Obesity treatment frameworks grounded in community-based weight management programs may be ineffective. Overweight and obesity are growing global health concerns. 1 Strategies to control obesity emphasize obesity management and weight reduction as well as obesity prevention. In the United Kingdom, a national strategy report recommends that the management of obesity be an integral part of clinical practice. 2 This envisages that patients may transition from obesity to a more healthy body weight. A target of 5% body weight loss is often recommended for obese individuals who intend to lose weight. 3 However, access to weight management interventions may be limited, 4 and weight management interventions have only small and poorly maintained effects on body weight. 5,6 To understand the frequency with which reductions in body mass index (BMI, defined as weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters) may occur in a large population, we estimated the probability of an obese individual attaining normal body weight or a reduction of 5% in body weight.
