摘要：Objectives. We examined the relationship between alcohol outlets, drug markets (approximated by arrests for possession and trafficking), and violence in Boston, Massachusetts, in 2006. We analyzed geographic and environmental versus individual factors related to violence and identified areas high in violent crime. Methods. We used data from the Boston Police Department, US Census, and Massachusetts State Alcohol Beverage Control Commission. Spatial modeling was employed at the block group level, and violent crime, alcohol outlets, and drug markets were mapped. Results. Relative to other block groups, block groups in the highest decile of violent crime (n = 55) were found to be poorer (e.g., lower incomes, higher percentages of vacant homes), and they had greater numbers of alcohol outlets and higher drug arrest rates. Alcohol outlets and drug possession and trafficking arrests were predictive of violent crime. Also, spatial effects resulting from neighboring block groups were related to violent crime. Both alcohol outlet density and type were associated with violent crime in a differentiated and complex way. Conclusions. With drug possession and trafficking arrests as a proxy for drug markets, spatial relationships between alcohol outlets and violence were found in addition to typical sociodemographic predictors. Understanding the environmental and social contexts in which violence occurs has been an increasingly important area of research, one that has broad applicability to public policies on violence mitigation far beyond purely research issues. Increased theoretical understanding of the spatial and environmental contexts of violence, such as theories relating alcohol outlets to violence, have gone hand in hand with improvements in spatial techniques and computing power, transforming this area of research. Furthermore, although there have been studies on violence related to types and densities of alcohol outlets, 1–5 there has been less research attempting to include measures of drug arrests and to more fully incorporate spatial features such as characteristics of adjacent geographic areas. Locations of alcohol outlets are frequently related to occurrence of violence. The incidence of interpersonal violence appears to increase in and around locations with alcohol outlets, particularly bars and liquor stores. 1,3–5 There are several possible mechanisms. First, bars and liquor stores often attract individuals likely to be involved in violent interactions, such as young males (alcohol availability theory). 6 Second, these retail alcohol outlets are often located in areas with less guardianship than others (social disorganization theory). 1,3,7 Third, these types of outlets provide opportunities for social interactions that may lead to violence (alcohol availability and niche theory). Finally, establishments serving alcohol can foster increased expressions of aggression. 6 Empirical studies have shown a correlation between higher rates of violence and increased proximity to bars and liquor stores 1,8–10 as well as sales through alcohol outlets. 11 Similar arguments have been suggested to support empirically observed cross-sectional relationships between rates of violence and locations of off-premise establishments. 9,12 Establishment effects, however, may be related to other crime-related aspects of the environments of off-premise outlets, such as illegal drug activity and prostitution. 13 Questions remain as to whether effects related to alcohol outlets are due to the outlets themselves or the general characteristics of the areas in which they are located. Recent criminological research on bars and taverns suggests that managers of these establishments create environments that suppress or facilitate violence through business-related choices such as types of activities and entertainment, staff and training, and property characteristics. 14 Two theoretical concerns have guided much of the empirical work over the past 2 decades. First, alcohol outlets might serve as markers for other population or environmental features that are related to violence. These markers could consist of specific population characteristics related to greater levels of violence (e.g., poverty, female-headed households) 10 or place-based characteristics related to lower levels of police enforcement and surveillance (e.g., vacant retail establishments). 15 Second, violence and alcohol outlets are part of the continuous spatial fabric of communities, and thus standard statistical analyses of data, which assume independence of observations, are complicated by spatial autocorrelation between observations. 16 Spatial models have been applied to help correct for bias or increased sampling variation of effect estimates arising from a lack of spatial independence in modeling violence outcomes. 17 We examined the relationship between alcohol outlets and violent crime in an analytical framework that treats alcohol outlets as potentially both “producers” of violent behavior and markers or attractors of violence. Our initial assessments of the effects of typical sociodemographic measures demonstrated that there remained effects of alcohol outlet presence not accounted for by these features. Subsequently, to capture more spatial and environmental characteristics and to illustrate the presence of spatial effects that were distinct from the 2 types of effects just mentioned, we assessed how adjacent area characteristics relate to violent crime in the target area. To deal with the different ways in which outlets are posited to be related to violence, we accounted for outlet density and type and whether a violent crime occurred on a weekend or weekday. In addition, we included information on drug arrests for trafficking and possession (as estimators of drug markets) to properly account for the relationship between violence and drug markets when assessing the effects of alcohol outlets. Although Martinez et al. 18 found a significant relationship between drug markets and violence when accounting for social disorganization, our analysis is the first, to our knowledge, to also include alcohol outlet type and density.
