摘要：We used a validated smoking simulation model and data from the 2003 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey to project the impact that a US menthol ban would have on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. In a scenario in which 30% of menthol smokers quit and 30% of those who would have initiated as menthol smokers do not initiate, by 2050 the relative reduction in smoking prevalence would be 9.7% overall and 24.8% for Blacks; deaths averted would be 633 252 overall and 237 317 for Blacks. The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act 1 authorized the Food and Drug Administration to establish the Center for Tobacco Products to regulate tobacco for the protection of the public health. The Center for Tobacco Products is charged with considering a ban on the menthol flavoring in cigarettes (menthols). The act specifies that in considering the impact of a ban, a broad public health standard is to be applied rather than a narrow individual standard of whether there is more or less harm to individual users of menthols. Although there is evidence that menthol plays a role in smoking initiation and cessation, 2 – 6 little is known about the anticipated impact of such a ban on population-level smoking behavior and subsequent deaths that may be averted. Of particular interest is the effect of a ban on the Black population, which has substantially higher rates of menthol use than do other racial/ethnic groups. 7 In the absence of an experimental or actual ban on menthols, simulation modeling can be a useful tool to understand the potential pathways and predict the anticipated effect of such a policy intervention. 8 In the current study, we used a validated smoking simulation model, SimSmoke, 9 – 14 in conjunction with plausible ranges of change in patterns of smoking behavior, to examine the potential impact of a menthol ban on future smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths.
