摘要：Petroleum supplies have heretofore been abundant and inexpensive, but the world petroleum production peak is imminent, and we are entering an unprecedented era of petroleum scarcity. This fact has had little impact on policies related to climate, energy, the built environment, transportation, food, health care, public health, and global health. Rising prices are likely to spur research and drive efficiency improvements, but such innovations may be unable to address an increasing gap between supply and demand. The resulting implications for health and the environment are explored in the articles we have selected as additional contributions in this special issue. Uncertainty about the timing of the peak, the shape of the production curve, and decline rates should not delay action. The time for quick, decisive, comprehensive action is now. Petroleum is a remarkably versatile, useful substance; as a result, it has become deeply embedded in modern life and economic activity. Petroleum geologists first voiced concerns about the geological limitations of ever-increasing oil production more than 5 decades ago. 1 – 3 These pronouncements were quickly followed by dire interpretations of what peak oil might mean for modern, industrialized societies. 4 To date, the issue has had relatively little effect on climate policy or energy policy. Despite the broad, deep implications of declining petroleum production for public health and health care, only recently has peak oil received any attention from public health professionals or health practitioners. 5 – 8 This burgeoning discussion has still had virtually no influence on public health or health care delivery policy. Global environmental conditions, including climate change and continual degradation of global ecosystems, will make energy challenges more urgent and more difficult to solve. When oil prices increase significantly, societies likely will consider policy options that would further degrade the global environment and have significant adverse consequences for human health. We introduce the concept of petroleum scarcity, situate petroleum production concerns within the larger context of overall energy scarcity and other significant global challenges, highlight petroleum scarcity as a health issue, and identify prudent responses for planning, preparation, research, and action. We also provide a general introduction to the 7 other articles in this special issue that include discussions of the impact of petroleum scarcity on health care delivery, 9 public health, 10 agriculture and food systems, 11 the built environment and transportation, 12 global health, 13 resource wars and conflict, 14 and communication and messaging. 15 The authors of the other articles use a range of methods and have different perspectives, illustrating the variety of relevant approaches to the issue and the well-documented difficulties of generating, interpreting, and acting on evidence in a complex world. 16 We provide a framework and context for the articles in the series, tie this wide range of issues together and illustrate linkages among disparate yet related concerns.
