摘要：Peak oil is the phenomenon whereby global oil supplies will peak, then decline, with extraction growing increasingly costly. Today's globalized industrial food system depends on oil for fueling farm machinery, producing pesticides, and transporting goods. Biofuels production links oil prices to food prices. We examined food system vulnerability to rising oil prices and the public health consequences. In the short term, high food prices harm food security and equity. Over time, high prices will force the entire food system to adapt. Strong preparation and advance investment may mitigate the extent of dislocation and hunger. Certain social and policy changes could smooth adaptation; public health has an essential role in promoting a proactive, smart, and equitable transition that increases resilience and enables adequate food for all. Peak oil is the point at which national and world oil supplies will peak, then decline in coming decades, with extraction growing increasingly costly per unit retrieved. Figure 1 shows how industrial food production systems depend heavily on petroleum for fueling farm machinery, producing pesticides, and transporting ingredients and food. 1 – 3 Also, as petroleum prices rise, cropland is diverted to biofuels production, affecting food supply. Oil so permeates today's food systems that, as prices escalate, business-as-usual processes will be unlikely to provide food security. As Kirschenmann wrote, the end of cheap energy will force us to begin redesigning our food economy as a subsystem of the ecosystem. 4 (p110–111) Open in a separate window FIGURE 1 Petroleum use in the industrial food system before peak oil. Public health has an essential role to play in joining with others to promote a healthy and equitable transition to an oil-independent, more resilient 5 food system. The challenge of ensuring future food security is compounded by the ecological and resource threats intertwined with that of peak oil, including climate change, population growth, projected peaks in other fuel sources (e.g., coal, natural gas, uranium), soil depletion and contamination, water shortages, and urbanization. 6 These threats—and our responses to them—will affect public health and society, not only directly through food security, but also via myriad economic, social, and environmental pathways. Food systems are systems—complex, and comprising all entities, processes, and relationships from soil and seed to table and waste. 7 , 8 In a system, changes to one component ramify elsewhere 9 , 10 ; systems-based solutions account for complexity to minimize unintended negative consequences. 11 We aim to leave the reader with a big picture understanding of the issues and their interconnections and related leverage points. Although we emphasize the tremendous implications of peak oil for international food security and agriculture, we focus on the US context. Without effective intervention, peak oil will exacerbate existing inequities; US food insecurity today falls disproportionately on the poor, minorities, single-parent families, and children. 12 Farmers and other workers could also suffer disproportionately as their costs rise, potentially without adequate compensation in food prices. Small and midsize farms and other businesses may not be able to adapt quickly to rising fuel prices if they have investments in petroleum-dependent equipment. We describe petroleum and dependence upon it in industrialized food systems, and how oil scarcity may affect food production and food security. As petroleum prices escalate, short-term consolidation of industrial agriculture and potentially significant increases in food insecurity may occur. Food systems are likely to adapt to an oil-constrained future in 4 ways: reduced oil in food production, increased food system energy efficiency and renewable energy, changed food consumption patterns, and reduced food transportation distances. These shifts may present substantial challenges for public health and equity; nonetheless, they may ultimately contribute to a more sustainable food system. We discuss the role for public health in working with others to ensure as proactive, smooth, and equitable a transition as possible. We also present policy and practice recommendations. Public health is a relative newcomer to both peak oil and agricultural issues. We have much to learn from the farmers, communities, advocates, consumers, sociologists, and scientists who have been addressing the issues over time. Public health, in turn, is a needed ally.
