摘要：Objectives . In this study we explored the association between rates of household firearm ownership and homicide across the United States, by age groups. Methods . We used cross-sectional time-series data (1988–1997) to estimate the association between rates of household firearm ownership and homicide. Results . In region- and state-level analyses, a robust association between rates of household firearm ownership and homicide was found. Regionally, the association exists for victims aged 5 to 14 years and those 35 years and older. At the state level, the association exists for every age group over age 5, even after controlling for poverty, urbanization, unemployment, alcohol consumption, and nonlethal violent crime. Conclusions . Although our study cannot determine causation, we found that in areas where household firearm ownership rates were higher, a disproportionately large number of people died from homicide. The United States has higher rates of firearm ownership than do other developed nations, and higher rates of homicide. 1, 2 Of the 233 251 people who were homicide victims in the United States between 1988 and 1997, 68% were killed with guns, 3 of which the large majority were handguns. 4 Case–control studies suggest that the presence of a gun in the home is a risk factor for homicide in the home, 5 that the purchase of a handgun from a licensed dealer is associated with becoming a homicide victim, 6 and that gun ownership may be a risk factor for committing homicide 7 (although other studies found no association with homicide perpetration 8 ). Most, but not all, 9, 10 cross-sectional studies have found a positive association between various measures of firearm availability and overall rates of homicide, a trend that holds across regions, 11 states, 12– 14 cities, 15, 16 and counties. 17 Nationally representative studies of the effect of firearm prevalence on rates of homicide have been hampered by the lack of direct measures of firearm ownership within areas smaller than the 9 US Census regions and by uncertainty regarding the validity of firearm ownership proxies. Our study extends previous work by using recent data, looking across both regions and all 50 states, disaggregating victims by age, and adjusting for potential confounders, including poverty, urbanization, unemployment, alcohol consumption, aggravated assault, forcible rape, and robbery. In addition, we used the 2 best currently available measures of rates of household firearm ownership—direct survey-based measures for regional analyses 18 and a rigorously validated proxy of household gun ownership 19 for region- and state-level analyses.
