期刊名称：IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
印刷版ISSN：1755-1307
电子版ISSN：1755-1315
出版年度：2018
卷号：186
期号：3
页码：012059
DOI：10.1088/1755-1315/186/3/012059
语种：English
出版社：IOP Publishing
摘要：The extreme rainfall from the adjacent hydro-zone might have impact on the local hydro-zone. A method is prompted to estimate the risk probability of synchronous occurrence of extreme rainfalls in this paper. The Taihu Basin is taken as an example. The K-S test and AIC are employed to identify the marginal distribution. The Frank Copula is used to construct the joint distribution. Finally, the risk probability is estimated by the conditional probability. The extreme rainfalls of the South of the Taihu Basin belong to the Lnorm distribution. Most of the extreme rainfalls of the North of the Taihu Basin belong to the PIII distribution, except the max 30 days rainfall of YCD which belongs to the Lnorm distribution. The return period of different hydro-zones could have different impact on the risk probability of synchronous occurrence of extreme rainfalls. The conditional probability of Rain-zone II could increase with the time of rainfall series given the return periods of the other hydro-zones are taken as constant.
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