摘要：In this article, a new method for fatigue reliability analysis of crack growth life based on the maximum entropy theory and a long crack propagation model is proposed. A modified generalized passivation-lancet model for long fatigue crack propagation rate is presented with explicit physical meaning. Experimental results for turbine disk alloy ZSGH4169 under different strain ratios and temperatures (at 650°C and room temperature) are used to verify the applicability of the new model. Results show that predictions by the proposed model are almost identical to the experimental data. The presented model is better than the other three models to reflect the rapid propagation characteristics of the crack. In order to perform fatigue reliability estimation, the probabilities of failure are calculated using the maximum entropy theory based on the fatigue crack growth life that derived from the proposed modified crack propagation model and the above existing three models. Results have shown that maximum entropy theory is very apt for fatigue reliability analysis of turbine disk under different loading conditions with a limited number of samples because it does not need any distribution assumptions for random variables. The effectiveness and accuracy of the combination of fatigue crack propagation models and maximum entropy method for fatigue reliability analysis are demonstrated with examples.
关键词：Crack propagation model; life prediction; maximum entropy theory; fatigue reliability; failure probability
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