摘要：Motor vehicle accidents are the leading cause of death among young adults. Although automobile fatalities have declined in recent years, motorcycle fatalities are rapidly increasing. The purpose of our research was to quantify the relationship between changing fuel prices and motorcycle fatalities. Our findings suggest that people increasingly rely on motorcycles to reduce their fuel costs in response to rising gasoline prices. We estimate that use of motorcycles and scooters instead of 4-wheeled vehicles results in over 1500 additional motorcycle fatalities annually for each dollar increase in gas prices. Motorcycle safety should receive more attention as a leading public health issue. MOTOR VEHICLE FATALITIES are a leading cause of death and a major public health problem in the United States, particularly among young adults. Forty-one percent of all injury-related fatalities in 2005 resulted from motor vehicle crashes among individuals aged 15 to 24 years. 1 , 2 However, rising gas prices have had a substantial impact in reshaping consumers’ choices of transportation, and this has significant implications for motor vehicle fatalities. From 1998 to 2007, gasoline prices more than doubled in real terms, with much of the increase occurring from 2004 to 2007. 3 Whereas demand outstripped supply for hybrid gas-electric cars in the summer of 2008, automobile manufacturers continue to face difficulty in selling large, low-mile-per-gallon vehicles. 4 Other modes of transportation, such as public transportation, are becoming increasingly popular. 5 , 6 Research suggests that the decline in the number of miles driven in response to higher fuel prices has led to significant reductions in automobile fatality rates. 7 Another consequence of the higher prices, however, has been increased demand for motorcycles and motored scooters, which use less fuel than cars and trucks. According to a recent survey, 26% of consumers considered substituting a motorcycle or scooter for a car in response to escalating fuel prices. 8 Motorcycle fatalities have risen substantially since the mid-1990s. We examine the extent to which rising gasoline prices explain increasing road fatalities from motorcycle crashes and call for greater attention to motorcycle safety. The average fuel economy of new cars has never exceeded 30 miles per gallon in any model year. 4 For sport utility vehicles (SUVs), fuel economy ranged as low as 12 miles per gallon in 2008, and the most fuel-efficient standard truck for 2008 only managed 18 miles per gallon. By using electric motors to supplement power from a conventional gasoline engine, hybrid cars can achieve significantly higher fuel efficiency than equivalent gasoline-powered vehicles. The most fuel-efficient hybrid averages 48 miles per gallon in the city; 9 however, hybrids cost significantly more than conventional vehicles. 10 , 11 By contrast, motorcycles and scooters are known for significant fuel savings because of their smaller engines. In 2006, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the average motorcycle fuel economy was 56.1 miles per gallon. 12 A commuter choosing to ride a motorcycle instead of driving the average car would reduce his or her fuel costs by almost 50%, or by nearly two thirds compared with the average SUV. 4 Scooters commonly achieve higher levels of fuel efficiency than most motorcycles, with some as high as 100 miles per gallon. 13 New motorcycles and scooters are also typically priced much lower than cars and trucks. Retail prices for the most fuel-efficient scooters and motorcycles available from major manufacturers range from $2000 to $4000. Approximately half of motorized scooter and motorcycle models from the 4 largest Japanese manufacturers retail for less than $10 000. Considering both their significant fuel savings and lower ownership costs, it is not surprising that sales of motorcycles and scooters have been booming. 13 Motorcycles and scooters are more dangerous than 4-wheeled vehicles. An individual switching from a car to a motorcycle with no prior experience or training faces a high risk of injury or death. In fact, over 90% of motorcycle riders involved in a crash do not have formal training, relying instead on family or friends or being self-taught. 14 A high level of riding skill is necessary because 2-wheeled vehicles are more dangerous than 4-wheeled vehicles in situations involving hazards such as road debris, rain, snow, and significant pavement imperfections. Furthermore, many popular motorcycles have higher performance in terms of acceleration and braking than most sports cars, requiring highly developed throttle and braking skills. Riding a motorcycle also leaves less room for mistakes arising from distraction or impairments such as alcohol consumption or fatigue. In fact, two thirds of motorcycle crashes are caused solely by motorcycle rider error. 14 Using the Fatality Accident Reporting System (FARS) database, which contains information on every vehicular fatality occurring on public roads in the United States, we examined the extent to which rising gasoline prices contributed to increasing numbers of motorcycle road fatalities.
