摘要：Objectives. We sought to assess the impact of several tobacco control policies and televised antismoking advertising on adult smoking prevalence. Methods. We used a population survey in which smoking prevalence was measured each month from 1995 through 2006. Time-series analysis assessed the effect on smoking prevalence of televised antismoking advertising (with gross audience rating points [GRPs] per month), cigarette costliness, monthly sales of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) and bupropion, and smoke-free restaurant laws. Results. Increases in cigarette costliness and exposure to tobacco control media campaigns significantly reduced smoking prevalence. We found a 0.3-percentage-point reduction in smoking prevalence by either exposing the population to televised antismoking ads an average of almost 4 times per month (390 GRPs) or by increasing the costliness of a pack of cigarettes by 0.03% of gross average weekly earnings. Monthly sales of NRT and bupropion, exposure to NRT advertising, and smoke-free restaurant laws had no detectable impact on smoking prevalence. Conclusions. Increases in the real price of cigarettes and tobacco control mass media campaigns broadcast at sufficient exposure levels and at regular intervals are critical for reducing population smoking prevalence. Population-wide interventions that can reduce adult smoking prevalence are important for curbing the pandemic of tobacco-related disease. 1 – 3 However, evaluating the effects of tobacco control policies and mass media interventions on populations is difficult. 4 , 5 Generally, there are few comparable control populations to which policy or media interventions are not delivered. Tobacco policies and media campaigns often co-occur, complicating assessment of the relative contribution of each. In addition, most studies in which smoking prevalence is the outcome measure rely on annual population surveys to track change over time, despite policy and media interventions being generally implemented throughout the year, and at differing strengths relative to the time of survey administration. Small or transient impacts on smoking prevalence are difficult to detect and may be underestimated. Over the past decade, the Australian population has been exposed to changes in several tobacco control policies, including changes in taxes on tobacco products resulting in increases in the real price of cigarettes, increasing availability of pharmaceutical smoking cessation products such as nicotine replacement therapies (NRT) and bupropion, and the introduction of smoke-free restaurant laws. In addition, there has been considerable variation in exposure to public health–sponsored mass media campaigns and pharmaceutical advertising for NRT. We have assessed the independent effect of each tobacco control policy and type of media campaign with a data series in which self-reported smoking prevalence was measured every month over a period of 11 years. This method has the advantage over annual population surveys of more closely matching the timing and extent of policy implementation and media exposure to smoking prevalence, and it has the ability to examine the pattern of change in prevalence, such as the lag time to a measurable impact and the duration of influence.
