摘要：Objectives. We examined correlates of eviction and homelessness among current and former welfare recipients from 1997 to 2003 in an urban Michigan community. Methods. Longitudinal cohort data were drawn from the Women’s Employment Study, a representative panel study of mothers who were receiving cash welfare in February 1997. We used logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors for both eviction and homelessness over the survey period. Results. Twenty percent (95% confidence interval [CI]=16%, 23%) of respondents were evicted and 12% (95% CI=10%, 15%) experienced homelessness at least once between fall 1997 and fall 2003. Multivariate analyses indicated 2 consistent risk factors: having less than a high school education and having used illicit drugs other than marijuana. Mental and physical health problems were significantly associated with homelessness but not evictions. A multivariate screening algorithm achieved 75% sensitivity and 67% specificity in identifying individuals at risk for homelessness. A corresponding algorithm for eviction achieved 75% sensitivity and 50% specificity. Conclusions. The high prevalence of housing instability among our respondents suggests the need to better target housing assistance and other social services to current and former welfare recipients with identifiable personal problems. The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 ended the federal government’s guarantee of cash assistance to poor families by replacing the 60-year-old entitlement program Aid to Families with Dependent Children with the transition-to-work program Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). TANF imposed a cumulative 60-month time limit on receipt of federally funded cash benefits for most recipients, tied welfare receipt directly to work activity, and devolved a great amount of program authority to the states. 1 Many studies have explored the impact of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act on the work behavior and welfare status of low-income women. 2 , 3 Large declines in welfare case-loads, increased work activity among single mothers, and reductions in official child poverty rates are indicators of the success of welfare reform. However, related research on the material well-being of those who no longer receive welfare (welfare leavers) has documented high rates of hardships, including lack of health insurance coverage, food insecurity, and housing problems. 4 – 8 Housing problems are particularly acute among low-income families with children. Wood and Rangarajan, using 2003 survey data, reported that 16% of unsubsidized current and former welfare recipients in New Jersey had experienced eviction, homelessness, doubling up with friends or relatives, or frequent moves in the previous year. 9 In a review of welfare-leaver studies across many states, Acs and Loprest found that between 25% and 50% of welfare leavers reported falling behind on housing payments, and between 6% and 26% reported moving as a result of high housing costs. Smaller percentages experienced eviction (4% to 7%) or homelessness (1% to 3%). On average, rates of housing problems were somewhat lower for welfare leavers than for welfare stayers, although some of the studies reviewed by Acs and Loprest showed that more than 20% of welfare leavers continued to experience housing problems. 3 Despite high rates of housing problems among current and former welfare recipients, the characteristics of individuals and families that are associated with heightened risks of unstable housing conditions have not received much attention. Given the probable relationships between housing-related hardships, material well-being, and labor market outcomes, the lack of knowledge about these characteristics represents a significant gap in the literature. The studies published to date have tended to use observational data from samples of homeless or otherwise disadvantaged individuals. Few studies have compared the characteristics and circumstances of low-income women experiencing housing problems with those of women in similar socioeconomic situations who are not experiencing such problems. Observational studies of severely disadvantaged individuals may be especially misleading in light of evidence indicating a high prevalence of key risk factors among the broader population of low-income individuals. For example, previous research involving the panel data used in our study showed that more than one third of all current and former welfare recipients satisfied diagnostic screening criteria for at least 1 psychiatric disorder in a given year and that about two thirds experienced at least 1 disorder over the 6-year study period. 10 , 11 Such mental and physical health problems are likely to contribute to housing instability among low-income families.
