摘要：We used a random-digit-dialed survey of 434 smokers to demonstrate that approximately three quarters of young adult (aged 19–24 years) smokers overestimated by 20% or more the proportion of their peers who smoked. The effect of this normative fallacy was significantly greater in young adult smokers than in smokers aged 25 years or older. Because of the strength of this false consensus effect in young adult smokers, normative feedback interventions might be especially effective in this age group. Considerable attention has been focused on the false consensus effect among high school students, that is, the overestimation of the number of one’s peers who smoke cigarettes. 1 – 7 This normative fallacy has been identified as a predictor of smoking and as a target mechanism for intervention. Interventions that incorporate normative feedback are theorized to be effective because normative feedback acts as a powerful source of social comparison that motivates smokers to reevaluate their use of cigarettes. 6 What of young adults? For alcohol, normative feedback interventions in college-aged students have been found to consistently reduce the prevalence of problem drinking (e.g., heavy drinking occasions, negative consequences of drinking). 8 , 9 These interventions are thought to be especially effective in this age group because many young adults who drink heavily believe that their peers drink more than their peers actually do. Is the same true for smoking? Are young adults more likely to overestimate the proportion of their peers who smoke as compared with the rest of the adult population? To answer these questions, we compared young adult smokers’ perceptions of how many people their age and gender smoked to the actual prevalence of smoking in this age group.
