期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2018
卷号：115
期号：44
页码：11268-11273
DOI：10.1073/pnas.1800353115
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：The Janzen–Connell hypothesis is a well-known explanation for why tropical forests have large numbers of tree species. A fundamental prediction of the hypothesis is that the probability of adult recruitment is less in regions of high conspecific adult density, a pattern mediated by density-dependent mortality in juvenile life stages. Although there is strong evidence in many tree species that seeds, seedlings, and saplings suffer conspecific density-dependent mortality, no study has shown that adult tree recruitment is negatively density dependent. Density-dependent adult recruitment is necessary for the Janzen–Connell mechanism to regulate tree populations. Here, we report density-dependent adult recruitment in the population of Handroanthus guayacan , a wind-dispersed Neotropical canopy tree species. We use data from high-resolution remote sensing to track individual trees with proven capacity to flower in a lowland moist forest landscape in Panama and analyze these data in a Bayesian framework similar to capture–recapture analysis. We independently quantify probabilities of adult tree recruitment and detection and show that adult recruitment is negatively density dependent. The annualized probability of adult recruitment was 3.03% ⋅ year−1. Despite the detection of negative density dependence in adult recruitment, it was insufficient to stabilize the adult population of H. guayacan , which increased significantly in size over the decade of observation.
关键词：Bayesian state–space ; density dependence ; Janzen Connell ; population dynamics ; remote sensing
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