期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2018
卷号：115
期号：43
页码：E9994-E10002
DOI：10.1073/pnas.1802987115
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Future state prediction for nonlinear dynamical systems is a challenging task, particularly when only a few time series samples for high-dimensional variables are available from real-world systems. In this work, we propose a model-free framework, named randomly distributed embedding (RDE), to achieve accurate future state prediction based on short-term high-dimensional data. Specifically, from the observed data of high-dimensional variables, the RDE framework randomly generates a sufficient number of low-dimensional “nondelay embeddings” and maps each of them to a “delay embedding,” which is constructed from the data of a to be predicted target variable. Any of these mappings can perform as a low-dimensional weak predictor for future state prediction, and all of such mappings generate a distribution of predicted future states. This distribution actually patches all pieces of association information from various embeddings unbiasedly or biasedly into the whole dynamics of the target variable, which after operated by appropriate estimation strategies, creates a stronger predictor for achieving prediction in a more reliable and robust form. Through applying the RDE framework to data from both representative models and real-world systems, we reveal that a high-dimension feature is no longer an obstacle but a source of information crucial to accurate prediction for short-term data, even under noise deterioration.
关键词：prediction ; nonlinear dynamics ; time series ; high-dimensional data ; short-term data
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