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文章基本信息

  • 标题:A Family of Stochastic Unit GARCH Models
  • 作者:Mamadou Abdoulaye Konte
  • 期刊名称:International Journal of Economics and Finance
  • 印刷版ISSN:1916-971X
  • 电子版ISSN:1916-9728
  • 出版年度:2013
  • 卷号:5
  • 期号:1
  • 页码:177
  • DOI:10.5539/ijef.v5n1p177
  • 出版社:Canadian Center of Science and Education
  • 摘要:

    A class of Asymmetric GARCH models is presented. It shares the same unconditional variance and volatility forecast formula as the standard GARCH(P,Q) model under the assumption of a symmetric conditional distribution for innovations. use three models of this class to assess their ability to forecast S&P 500 market volatility and to make better decisions for the purpose of risk management and investment. Subsequently, a comparison is made with respect to competing models (GARCH, EGARCH, GJR). It was found that for the in-sample evaluation, the best model is obtained from the Stochastic Unit GARCH (SUGARCH) model where leverage effects are introduced through the GARCH (i.e) parameter. For the out-of-sample evaluation (QLIKE loss function), it is better to use the SUGARCH class where the asymmetry appears on the ARCH (i.e ) parameter.

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