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  • 标题:Inference for VARs identified with sign restrictions
  • 作者:Eleonora Granziera ; Hyungsik Roger Moon ; Frank Schorfheide
  • 期刊名称:Quantitative Economics
  • 电子版ISSN:1759-7331
  • 出版年度:2018
  • 卷号:9
  • 期号:3
  • 页码:1087-1121
  • DOI:10.3982/QE978
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
  • 摘要:

    There is a fast growing literature that set‐identifies structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign‐restricted SVARs). Most methods that have been used to construct pointwise coverage bands for impulse responses of sign‐restricted SVARs are justified only from a Bayesian perspective. This paper demonstrates how to formulate the inference problem for sign‐restricted SVARs within a moment‐inequality framework. In particular, it develops methods of constructing confidence bands for impulse response functions of sign‐restricted SVARs that are valid from a frequentist perspective. The paper also provides a comparison of frequentist and Bayesian coverage bands in the context of an empirical application—the former can be substantially wider than the latter.

  • 关键词:Bayesian inference ; frequentist inference ; set‐identified models ; sign restrictions ; structural VARs ; C1 ; C32
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