期刊名称：Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci, Časopis za ekonomsku teoriju praksu
印刷版ISSN：1331-8004
出版年度：2018
卷号：36
期号：2
页码：559-583
DOI：10.18045/zbefri.2018.2.559
语种：English
出版社：University of Rijeka Faculty of Economics
摘要：This article aims to answer the questions concerning the dynamics of unemployment rates, including whether there is a subsequent hysteresis in the selected sample of ten countries of the South East Europe. The linear and nonlinear tests have been used to determine the stationarity of unemployment rates. The findings show that in eight out of ten countries, unemployment is a stationary process which implies that the hysteresis hypothesis has not been confirmed. The unemployment rates in Albania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, Greece, Montenegro and Turkey manifest mean reverting behaviour. The movements of unemployment rates in the next period can be forecasted with a relatively high degree of certainty in terms of the mentioned countries. The unemployment in FYR Macedonia and Serbia is a non-stationary process. The results further emphasize the importance of allowing asymmetric adjustment and structural breaks, especially in the case of Romania, Montenegro and Turkey.
关键词：hysteresis; unemployment rate; non-linearity; stationarity and unit root
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