期刊名称：Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci, Časopis za ekonomsku teoriju praksu
印刷版ISSN：1331-8004
出版年度：2018
卷号：36
期号：2
页码：881-904
DOI：10.18045/zbefri.2018.2.881
语种：English
出版社：University of Rijeka Faculty of Economics
摘要：For stability and advance of the EU and prospective member countries, it is important to assess the best time for new enlargement. In this paper, we have tested a number of macroeconomic and macro-financial variables in order to check whether a number of countries were ready to join the EU, and whether the candidates are ready. Some variables present criteria of nominal convergence as defined in Maastricht Treaty, while the rest of variables indicate the level of real convergence. Univariate analysis has indicated that the membership in the EU is significantly affected by GDP per capita, general government final consumption expenditure, final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, gross national expenditure, and inflation. Following the univariate binary logistic analysis and separation of variables that affect the individual membership in the EU, a multivariate regression analysis was applied. Multivariate binary logistic regression confirmed significance of general government final consumption expenditure and gross capital formation. The analysis indicated the importance of selecting the timing of accession in terms of the achieved economic development, expressed through the selected macroeconomic indicators. Moreover, it appears that the list of tested economic criteria was played at best a secondary importance in past European enlargements.
关键词：macroeconomic indicators; European Union; regional integration; convergence criteria
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