摘要： The article is devoted to the development of an innovative approach in the risk management of the business activity of economic agents, which is based on the application of economic and mathematical methods. The approach provides the implementation of the following phases. At the first stage, the formation of four groups of the main risk-generating factors of the business activity in the internal and external environments is proposed, taking into account the stimulant and disinfectant factors, their intensive and extensive nature of the impact. At the second stage, the study of the selected factors for abnormal emissions is conducted. For this purpose, the factors are given in the form of time series, which are checked for anomalies with the modified Irwin criterion. The third stage defines the procedure for selecting relevant factors for each of the four groups that determine the risk of business activity. The authors propose to conduct a regression analysis, in which the standardized regression equations are constructed to assess the importance of the factors and their impact on the risk of the business activity. The fourth stage of the innovative approach is devoted to the development of integrated indicators of risk groups based on the Minkowski Metric. The value of the integral indicator, which is approaching 1, will indicate that there is no risk, otherwise, the factors generate excessive risk. At the fifth stage, a risk business model based on four components and a quadrangle centroid are built. The standard model was built using the software package "GeoGebra Classical". As a result, a square whose centre of mass lies at the intersection of its diagonals, which also coincides with the centre of the described circle is obtained. At the sixth stage, an analysis of the results of simulation and the definition of strategies is carried out. The authors proposed to construct a scenario of probable variants of relations between the four groups of risk factors, which includes possible directions for improving the components of one or another group of risks. The construction of such scenarios will increase the efficiency of management decisions since it allows you to gradually track the impact of changes in risk and get the predicted result.
关键词：business activity; the risk of the business activity; economic agent; risk management; innovative approach; risk-generating factor; graphics model; the centre of mass.
Loading...
