摘要：The random lane-changing behavior of electric bicycles brings a great safety hazard to urban transportation: According to the national traffic accident statistics in 2015, 8.22% of traffic accidents are caused by non-motor vehicle violations. Among them, the accident rate caused by electric bicycles is as high as 78%. In order to effectively analyze and quantify the risk of this lane-changing behavior, based on the non-cooperative strategy model under complete information, a Z-test of the speed before and after the “illegal” lane-changing behavior was carried out by using the data of the mixed-flow sections of Xi’an city. Constructing the judgment matrix to determine the weight value of motor vehicles’ game strategy and constructing the charge matrix, the utility income analysis of the electric bicycle and the affected motor vehicle is made by using the payment function, and the exceeding conflict model is established to quantify the risk level of the conflict number in the unit road. It is verified that the “illegal” lane-changing behavior of electric bicycles is a goal-oriented behavior for obtaining greater desired speed.
关键词：lane-changing behavior; strategic game model; Z-Test; conflict model; expected speed
