摘要：Program management is the structured and strategic process of managing multiple projects at a high level to maximize benefits. The essentials of programs include high costs and long implementation periods, and thus, the negative impacts caused by the failure of program management are more significant and greater than that of a project. Therefore, to achieve high program performance, it is essential for program management to be well defined during the early stages. However, the existing research is mainly focused on the performance prediction methodologies for projects, while the research pertaining to programs has concentrated on identifying the qualitative critical success factors (CSFs). Thus, this study developed a methodology for predicting the program performance. Forty-five CSFs were identified herein from literature review and expert interviews, then grouped through factor analysis. In addition, the Program Definition Rating Index (PgDRI) was developed by calculating the weights of the proposed CSFs through structured equation modeling in order to evaluate the quantitative program performance. For validation, the PgDRI was applied to three in-progress cases, and the PgDRI scores were compared with the actual performance of each case. The PgDRI developed in this study can contribute to the body of knowledge pertaining to program management by quantifying the performance management of a program. In addition, the PgDRI can be utilized in the performance management of a program in terms of the cost and schedule by allowing practitioners to apply the PgDRI repeatedly to the major decision-making processes during the early stages of a program.
关键词：construction program; program management; Program Definition Rating Index (PgDRI); critical success factors (CSFs); performance prediction
