标题：Integrated Model of Economic Generation System Expansion Plan for the Stable Operation of a Power Plant and the Response of Future Electricity Power Demand
摘要：The current study aims to establish an optimal Generation System Expansion Plan that can satisfy the increasing electricity demand while maintaining operational elements and the stability of the energy supply. The architecture is composed of plan-level and operation-level models, which are basically based on optimization. In the first step, we estimated future power demand data through time series analysis. In addition, power plant data were defined and verified data were collected. In the next step, the previous Generation System Expansion Plan methodology was used to deduce a feasible solution and construction costs that satisfy the reserve rate. In the third step, mixed integer programming (MIP)-based power generation system operation plan methodology was used to deduce numbers on the operation of power generation system. In addition, power plants with similar characteristics were grouped to reduce the calculation complexity of unit commitment. In the last step, a feasible solution for the duration of the plan (deduced in Stage II) and operations and maintenance cost information were combined to produce the optimal solution that minimizes the total cost. Experiments were conducted to demonstrate the proposed integrated generation system expansion planning architecture for establishing the optimal generation system expansion planning. This study has academic implications for the establishment of optimal power plant expansion plans to meet future increasing power demand while maintaining operational considerations and supply stability. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is also illustrated through comparison and verification with the National Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand.
关键词：generation system scheduling; integrated model; basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand; forecasting model for electricity demand
