期刊名称：IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
印刷版ISSN：1755-1307
电子版ISSN：1755-1315
出版年度：2019
卷号：237
期号：3
页码：032059
DOI：10.1088/1755-1315/237/3/032059
出版社：IOP Publishing
摘要：Jinan City, with rapid urban growth and prominent ecological environmental pressure, was selected for the research area. We used SLEUTH model to simulate scenes of urban dynamic growth. On the basis of the actual situation of Jinan urban area, this paper presents three urban growth models to reveal the trend of urban growth under different types of land protection intensity. The results show that scene 1 was based on a hypothesis that the intensity of urban development remained basically unchanged in the scene of future urban growth and changed with the form of simulation. At this time, urban land use growth was fast and the urban expansion was mainly marginal growth; Scene 2 increased the degree of water protection to 80%, and the degree of farmland and woodland protection to 50%, which effectively controlled the urban growth; Scene 3 increased the degree of cultivated land and woodland protection to 80% and 90% respectively, resulting in a significant deterrence of the urban growth trend. The study proved the applicability of the SLEUTH model to urban growth prediction in China, and provided a theoretical basis for urban planning of Jinan.
