期刊名称：IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
印刷版ISSN：1755-1307
电子版ISSN：1755-1315
出版年度：2019
卷号：237
期号：4
页码：042024
DOI：10.1088/1755-1315/237/4/042024
出版社：IOP Publishing
摘要：The Hubbert model is widely used in forecasting the oil production. However, many scholars compared the history data to the data calculated by Hubbert model and got the conclusion that the Hubbert model was not suitable for forecasting oil production. In this paper, the Hubbert model is modified and the technical progress is considered in the model. An oil production forecast system is presented, which can be used to analyze the technical progress and dynamic change of reserves. This forecast system is decomposed into three models, namely the technical model, dynamic reserves model and production forecast model. The purpose of this paper is to show the powerful effect of technical progress and dynamic reserves on oil production. It is an innovative view that less research focus on this side. Furthermore, seismic technology, exploration theory, drilling technology and oil production technology are considered in technical model. These models are used to forecast world oil production from 2018 to 2030.
