期刊名称：IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
印刷版ISSN：1755-1307
电子版ISSN：1755-1315
出版年度：2019
卷号：227
期号：3
页码：032033
DOI：10.1088/1755-1315/227/3/032033
出版社：IOP Publishing
摘要：To improve the accuracy of bus load forecasting under the environment of electricity market, a bus load forecasting framework considering user interaction response is proposed. Since bus load components are complex and the response of each load to real-time electricity price is different, the identification and proportion calculation model of bus load components is firstly established. Secondly, the interactive response models of each load to real-time electricity price are established from the perspective of overall price elasticity and time-price difference elasticity. Thirdly, four different forecasting strategies are proposed with considering of electricity price elasticity, and the sequence of interaction analysis and load forecasting. Finally, a case study is carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting framework using the actual bus load data of a certain area in Guangdong Province.
