摘要：This study contributes to understanding the physical and economic impacts of progressive, climate-driven
aquatic salinization on the spatial distribution of mangrove species in the Indian Sundarbans, which accounts for
about two-fifths of the 10,200 km2
tidal-wetland forest delta. To estimate future mangrove distribution, a
five-step analysis was undertaken, using high-resolution spatial assessments. A current (2015) basemap and
overlays of salinity tolerance for major mangrove species and their assemblages and projected location-specific
aquatic salinity for 2050 were used to predict salinity-induced migration. The results show gain-and-loss patterns,
with salt-tolerant species predominating at the expense of freshwater species. These changes are likely to reduce
the flow of ecosystem services, adversely affecting the livelihood options of poor people in adjacent areas.
Effective management will require establishing baseline data for monitoring system changes over time, protocols
for maintaining species health, and support for mangrove regeneration and restoration. Resources should also be
directed to alternative livelihoods for mangrove-dependent households. The study recommends an integrated
policy approach, focused on rising salinity, changes in mangrove dynamics, and the welfare of
mangrove-dependent communities.
