摘要：Assessing the effects of climate change in high mountain basins is one of the main objectives in the planning and prevention of risk situations such as floods. However, it is not easy to predict with adequate precision the impacts on the main flows and storages that intervene in the system. Therefore, the objective of this study is to implement the TETIS hydrological model and use it as a prediction tool to assess the impacts of climate change on a cellular scale in a basin. The TETIS model is automatically calibrated using the Shuffled Complex Evolution optimization algorithm. In future projections of the precipitation and temperature variables used by the TETIS model, the climate multi-model of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and the scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have been used. The results obtained have shown that there is a modification in the dynamics of the system presenting a greater risk for extraordinary maximum avenues and floods.
