摘要：This study aims to develop an integrated model of outcome budget forecast, to assist in tax planning of small business enterprises. For this, the integrated forecasting model was based on methods Exponential adjustment, HoltWinters Additive and Multiplicative Box and Jenkins (ARIMA), which were applied to the real data from a small trading company, between 2007 and 2014. The integrated model was set in six steps in order to demonstrate what is the best forecasting method for each variable of the outcome budget and what is the best tax alternative to the company. The expected results were compared with the actual results in 2014, demonstrating that the predictive power of the variables was satisfactory. After this, we designed the tax planning based on estimated variables, through the calculation of taxes (ICMS, PIS, COFINS, income tax and social contribution) and the preparation of the income statement in relation to the following types of taxation: National SIMPLES, taxable income and presumed income. Tax planning has shown that the less costly option for the company under study concerning the year 2014 was the taxable income, which proved to be consistent with the actual results reported by the company this year. Finally, the integrated forecasting model is concluded in the composition of a budget and tax planning, has utility in making tax decision, being efficient for the budget and tax planning.
