标题：Pseudo eliminação da hanseníase em estado no nordeste brasileiro: análise a partir de regressão por pontos de inflexão e modelo bayesiano empírico local
期刊名称：Revista de Epidemiologia e Controle de Infecção
印刷版ISSN：2238-3360
出版年度：2019
卷号：9
期号：1
页码：32-39
DOI：10.17058/reci.v9i1.11649
出版社：Revista de Epidemiologia e Controle de Infecção
摘要：Background and Objectives: Alagoas is a Brazilian state in which leprosy is eliminated, but there is evidence that it is a pseudo-elimination. To analyze the temporal and spatial dynamics of leprosy in the state of Alagoas, Brazil, in between 2010 and 2015. Methods: Ecological study. Six indicators of leprosy monitoring were analyzed. Secondary data from the National System of Notifiable Diseases were used to calculate the indicators. For the temporal analysis we adopted joinpoint regression model. The trend has been ranked in increasing, decreasing or stationary. For the spatial analysis, the Local Empirical Bayesian Model and the Global and Local Moran Statistics were used. Significance was set at 5% and 95% CI. Results: The analysis by joinpoint showed a tendency to reduce the prevalence coefficient (APC=-11.2, p=0.008) and to increase the proportion of contacts examined (APC=7.0, p=0.015). The general detection coefficient, the coefficient of cases with degree II of physical incapacity and the proportion of cure showed a stationary pattern. The coefficient of detection in children under 15 years showed an inversion of the trend from 2013 (APC=7.8, p=0.011). The Moran statistic showed spatial autocorrelation, with municipalities more priority in the hinterland of the state. Conclusion: Althought being considered as eliminated in Alagoas, the high burden in the general population, the presence in children under 15 years of age and of incapacitated individuals, the fragile cure rate, the dubious quality of the contact survey and the geographical location of the state constitute the set of elements that maintain that elimination is a purely virtual process.
