TAKING THE RED OR BLUE PILL?
Varoufakis, Yanis
TAKING THE RED OR BLUE PILL?
In standard neoclassical economics, with what does the textbook
begin? It begins with a highly philosophical assumption that is
presented as fact. It is the assumption that society comprises of atoms,
of individuals who are characterised fully and exclusively by their
preferences. All that they each do in life is to try to satisfy their
own bundle of preferences. This is the utility maximisation principle.
Utility is presumed to be capable of being modelled as a mathematical
function. The maximisation of these utility functions yields all the
familiar instruments of torture for first year economics students, like
demand curves, elasticities, supply curves and all that. Economics is
presented as mathematical physics.
The problem I had as a teacher of this discipline in the
traditional mainstream economics course (at the University of Sydney)
was that the students actually bought it. I would introduce the
principle of utility maximisation and then try to criticise it, pointing
out the important aspects of the human condition this do not fit into
it. The students would often resist the criticism, however, saying that
even if a person chooses to be relatively altruistic it is still their
own preference that is being satisfied, so the model works well. In a
desperate attempt to convince them that, no, there is still something
amiss, I tried to tell a story, creating a mental experiment for them. I
asked them to imagine being in a room in which there is a magnificent
computer that can read with perfect accuracy everyone's
preferences. There's also a team of nurses and medical staff who
connect electrodes to your brain. That enables the computer to create a
virtual reality in your mind which is completely in accordance with your
own preferences. This machine is your friend. It is not brainwashing
you: it is not implanting into your mind things that you don't
want. Think of it is as the ultimate utility maximiser. It reads your
utility function; it knows exactly what preferences you have, what you
like what you don't like, your desires and your passions; and it
creates a virtual reality. Life for you, when you're attached to
this machine, is as real as this one. You live your own dream. The
question is: will you join the machine? Ask yourself: would you press
the button and be connected to that machine, knowing that at that moment
you lose any sensation of reality as you get into this virtual reality
which serves your preferences best?
The reason I would give my students for doing this kind of mental
experiment was to incite them to cast a critical gaze upon utility
maximisation as a theory. What I would say to them is: 'If you
choose not to join that machine, then you can't agree with the
principle of utility maximisation. You must think that there is
something else other than utility that matters in life and this
something else is preventing you from joining the machine'. Of
course, there were usually some smart kids who would say: 'no,
Professor, this is not true: I have a preference for reality'. Then
I would say to them: 'this is a very interesting point. The actual
decision to switch off this reality to another reality is causing you so
much disutility that you choose not to make it. Imagine however that
this machine now has a version 2.0 which is more sophisticated than the
original one. The new machine can take over your mind without you making
a choice, without you choosing to join the machine. Maybe you faint and
the medical team takes you to the bed, but you haven't realised
that there is complete continuity between the present moment and the
life attached to the machine. Would you agree with me that the world in
which all of us have been taken over by the machine, living the dream
without ever having to make the decision to be attached to the machine,
is the ideal society? It would be a society in which there is one large
machine and billions of people lying down in beds, hooked up to
machines'.
Asking the students whether this is the ideal society, the majority
would usually say no. Some committed utilitarians might say that it is
the ideal life, but there would be other kinds of objections. Some would
say that they prefer to have a genuine experience, not a fake one in
their mind, or that they would like to be helping others if they are
altruistic. Then, of course, we would get into the standard
philosophical discussion about defining reality: how do you know that we
are not now attached some machine and that this is more real than
something else?
Anyway, this was my way of making the students think that there was
something profoundly wrong with utility maximisation. It is that
constraints not only stop us from doing things: they help us develop as
human beings. In other words, our preferences are evolving as a result
of hitting against the barrier of constraints. It means that we are
forced by life to often do things that give us a lot less utility then
we could like. It is in this process, however, that we develop as human
beings. Unlike the liberal, individualistic human tradition, successful
life cannot be defined on the basis of one's initial preferences,
because they may be immature or very stupid preferences. Unless one gets
an opportunity to develop better preferences, then one never gets to
grow the talents that one innately has. The utility machine doesn't
know this: by removing all constraints, it ensures that you will never
develop. You'll remain the same moron that you are now. You will be
so until you die because the machine knows nothing other than to serve
you. But the servant, in the end, becomes the master, having removed all
the liberating constraints. That was the story I was trying to tell
them.
The Matrix: choosing which pill to take
Now imagine my great pleasure and also slight disappointment when I
watched the movie The Matrix, which was filmed at the Fox studios in
Auckland. The Matrix is exactly that story. It's a dystopia, as I
meant to be for our students. Instead of choosing to join the machine or
not to join the machine you're already the machine. Morpheus
present you with a red pill and the blue. If you take the blue pill you
forget that your life is not real and that you're attached to the
machine that is creating this fake, virtual reality in your mind. If you
take the red pill you live a more difficult life of constant struggle
against dystopia, but it least you get the chance, firstly, to live a
very real life and, secondly, to change.
Political economy is the kind of discipline one indulges in if one
doesn't care about having an easy life. Speaking truth to power, in
particular, comes at a hefty price in many countries around the world,
including Australia. By comparison, the neoclassical tradition, which is
the mainstream of economics, is the blue pill. Think about what you
learn if you do a standard Master of Commerce or Master of Economics
degree.
You learn that we live in a Panglossean world, indeed the best of
all possible worlds. Even if there are market failures, still the social
market economy which we find ourselves is the best we could possibly
have. The only improvements that can be achieved are those that come
from moving closer to the model that we are learning from our textbooks.
That means privatisation, deregulation, getting rid of unions and all
those impediments to the fallacious operations of market forces. If you
get locked into that mindset, the world looks like a wonderful place as
long as you learn to adapt yourself to it and not to question its
fundamental function. It's another form of religion in a sense but,
as long as you accept the dogma, progression through the ranks of the
priesthood can be rapid. You are guaranteed a decent job. Maybe you
could get a mortgage by the time you are 26: this is a measure of
success in Australia, isn't it?
So, having taken the blue pill, all you need to do is to learn to
work within the confines of this model--to learn to recite the sermons
and have to create some variations on the theme, but without actually
rocking the boat too much. By contrast, the red pill is one that you
take at your own peril. Challenging the orthodoxy leads to more personal
obstacles, whether in academic or business institutions.
There have been economists who challenged the orthodoxy and
didn't suffer. One, Kenneth Arrow, was a guru of the mainstream. He
was a standard mathematical economist, probably the best that ever
lived. He didn't question mainstream economics from a philosophical
perspective. He didn't worry that the mainstream utility theory
leaves out a lot that matters about humanity. He had no political
objection to neoclassicism. Rather, he had a curious mind and tried to
check one presumption that was central to the practice of mainstream
economists. It was the presumption that, just as an individual has a
utility function whose maximisation tells you all you need to know about
rational individual behaviour, society has a similar function that can
be maximised. This is called a social welfare function. Previously,
economists had presumed that, if an individual has a utility function
whose maximisation yields the outcome that explains rational behaviour,
something similar must happen for society as a whole. The presumption is
that there must exist some mathematical function that aggregates this
collection of individual utility functions into one collective social
welfare function whose maximisation tells you what's good for
society.
If you accept the method of the mainstream, you begin at the micro
level. Like physicist, you look at the level of the smallest entity
which is the social outcome of the individual. The method of study will
hone in on the assumption that each of us maximises a particular utility
function. Then the question is what do we do collectively? What
justifies the state extracting taxes from you? You cannot explain that
on the basis of Jack or Jill's utility. There must be a utility
function for both Jack and Jill together, whose maximisation yields the
optimal sales tax or income tax or corporate tax. It is a way of taking
Jack's and Jill's individual utility functions and combining
them into a common one. All economists up to that time and taken for
granted that surely there is one. Ken Arrow questioned that. In politics
the electoral system and the transforms our individual preferences into
a collective choice. Arrow considered whether there is a similar way to
identify a social welfare function. Within the space of a couple of
years (during which he produced other important theorems of neoclassical
economics) he developed probably the most significant theorem of the
social sciences of the 20th century Arrow's impossibility theorem.
He proved that, under assumptions that almost everyone--especially
neoclassical economists--accepts, there exists no way of aggregating
individual preferences into society's preference.
Therefore, neoclassical economic has nothing to say about what is
in the interests of society, which is a rather significant problem.
There can be no theory of taxation. There can be no theory of
international trade. In international trade theory what neoclassical
economists do is to treat each country as an entity with its own utility
function, with its own well-defined interest. Now what is this utility
function? It's the aggregation of the utility functions of all its
citizens. But that doesn't exist, according to Arrow. You could
only have a social welfare function by assuming full dictatorship--one
person who has preferences that trumps everyone's preferences on
every issue. Neoliberals--who are neither neo nor liberal by the
way--still want to pretend they are liberals, so they cannot accept this
dictatorship principle. So the conundrum remains. The economics
profession wants to tell stories about what is good for society, to tell
macroeconomics stories based on utility maximisation analysis. This is
the grave dilemma which economists within the mainstream face and why
they should take the red pill. Nothing that you hear mainstream
economists say on television or in the pages of financial newspapers has
any basis in their own analysis, for reasons that Arrow's
impossibility theorem explains quite well.
Improving the model, avoiding the choice of pill?
Some economists have tried to do something different in order to
make the model a bit more realistic. For example, a mathematical
economist called Matthew Rabin tried to add a little bit of
psychological texture to 'rational economic man'. He sought to
introduce a simple psychological thought, recognising that we not only
care about outcomes, we also care what others think. For instance, take
a young person whose parents and peers have expectations of him or her,
perhaps expecting him or her to get a degree in economics, law,
medicine, whatever. In these circumstances, second order expectations
infiltrate the utility function and create a more realistic picture. It
is a picture of a human who doesn't only care about whether he or
she is going to become an economist or a doctor, but the utility he or
she gets from becoming an economist or doctor also depends upon the
weight of other expectations upon him or her. Rabin demonstrates this
nicely by saying: imagine a situation where are you would rather become
an artist, but your mum want you to be a doctor. Because you do not want
to disappoint--disappointing her would reduce your utility--you may
choose to become an economist, even though there is no coercion to do
so. It is mathematically possible to model this, but the usual outcome
is indeterminacy. The demand curves cannot be defined because demand
depends on what I think that you think that I think. It's
impossible therefore to pin down a precise, determinate relation between
price and quantity demanded. So the whole modelling process explodes.
I have observed in a variety of universities, especially in the
United States, that professors and supervisors encourage their students
to play around with the models, to try to make them more realistic, to
infuse a degree of humanity in the utility functions and the
assumptions. However, the students are not allowed to submit their PhD
thesis unless they solve the model, but to do that they would have to do
away with all the nice, fuzzy, warm stuff about real men and women that
they had infused into it. Either the hapless PhD student has to start
again from scratch or do something really sneaky--to introduce through
the back door an assumption which can never be explained logically but
which allows the mathematics to be solved. This is what it is usually
done. It takes a heroic disposition to say: 'to hell with it,
I'm not closing a model on the basis of assumptions that are
logically incoherent. If I state them, nobody is ever going to accept
it. Better to just close the model for the hell of it, to get the PhD,
become an academic, spent 15 years to get promoted to senior lecturer,
and then spill the beans on the profession'. Well, psychologists
tell us that cognitive dissonance is a very painful thing: the human
spirit, mind, soul has a tendency to remove it. By the time you're
35 or 40, how many heroes are there in the world who will turn around
and bite the red pill? The answer is very few, especially when your
income depends on not spilling those beans.
These tensions are particularly evident in this era of
financialisation, with the financial sector paying economists huge
quantities of money to take those models and transplant them to finance.
Remember those wonderful, collateralised debt obligations and all those
complex derivatives in the lead up to the great crash of 2008? The heads
of Lehmann Brothers and J.P. Morgan every day would go to work and would
demand to know the latest figure for the value at risk (VAR), which
would tell them how much of the assets of their companies was at risk
that day, given the most recent developments in the financial markets.
They demanded a number, but to have this number some economic model had
to be closed. Now remember the hidden axiom that was necessary to close
the models of the hapless PhD student? That was the kind of axiom that
had to be embedded inside those financial sector models. It was an
equilibrium assumption--an assumption that equilibrates the various
variables.
What does it mean to impose an assumption of determinacy and
equilibrium? In the world of microeconomics and finance it is to assume
that the various covariance matrices of risks have numbers in the
diagonals and zeros everywhere else. In other words, it is to assume
that there is no statistical correlation between the probability that
you default and the probability that I default. Or it was Epsilon,
tending to 0, a positive number vanishingly small. That might be
reasonable for some human situations: for example, estimating the
probability that I would break my leg in my bath today and you'll
break your leg as a result of my breaking my leg. If we live in
different homes and we are not in the same bath, it makes sense to
assume these probabilities are independent and therefore the covariance
between the two variables is zero or vanishingly small. But to make
those assumptions about financial markets is the equivalent of assuming
that there never be a crisis. Of course, if they could never be a crisis
you don't need a VAR: you don't need any such measure at all,
do you?
The challenge for political economy
Within the economic profession the dominant incentive is to learn
the trick of introducing hidden assumptions and beep biting the blue
pill. Mainstream economists in financial markets can make millions by
doing so. Meanwhile, in academia, economists publish their theoretical
papers in the journals which the priesthood of neoclassical economics
considers give the most brownie points, leading to more tutors being
employed in those university economics departments, getting more
research grants and so on. To go in a different direction by biting the
red pill and questioning all these models is likely to condemn you to a
much more difficult existence. When I was involved in developing and
teaching the political economy program at the University of Athens we
constantly had to hold the fort against monumentally powerful forces
trying to squash the living daylights out of it.
Why? Because taking the red pill is challenging to the established
order of things. It is a kind of heretical thinking. Kenneth
Arrow's heresy was logical and ultimately excepted, even
celebrated, but it left welfare economics bereft of any guiding
principle. Also coming from within the mainstream, John Maynard Keynes
made the fundamental transition from the blue pill to the red pill. This
enabled him to have something useful to say about the great depression.
Had he not bitten the red pill, there would have been absolutely no
commentary that made sense in that troubled area.
However, those of us who think we are biting the red pill--whether
as Marxists, Keynesians, post-Keynesians or whatever--must beware the
strong possibility that the pill we are taking which looks as if it is
red is getting bluer and bluer. This is my criticism of a lot of
Marxism--and I speak as a Marxist--because of the way in which
dialectics has sometimes been lost in sterile discussions about the
labour theory of value. Even Marx himself, as he was being lured into
British political economy, tended to remove himself from his earlier
commitment to the dialectical process.
But political economy can be a potent and effective red pill as
long as we teach it in universities through a combination of three
things. First, economic history: when we talk about capital, rent and
the labour force, these must be located in historical context. Second,
history of economic thought, in conjunction with economic history: we
need to know about the evolution of economic ideas. Third, lots of
scepticism is essential, especially about things that people say have
already been solved.
Yanis Varoufakis is an internationally renowned economist who was
Finance Minister for the Greek government, leading that country's
difficult and controversial negotiations with 'the Troika',
during 2015. He has also been Professor of Economics at the University
of Athens and the University of Texas, and was previously in the
Department of Economics at the University of Sydney.
This is an edited transcript of a talk given at the University of
Sydney, organised by staff and students in the Department of Political
Economy, in 2016.
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