The Financial Crisis and Policy Responses in Europe (2007-2018).
Mongelli, Francesco Paolo ; Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo
The Financial Crisis and Policy Responses in Europe (2007-2018).
Introduction
The ECB's monetary policy response to the crisis is displaying
its effects, and the recovery of the euro area has evolved since
mid-2014. There is no simple way to recount the ECB's measures
during such a prolonged and mutating crisis. This paper explains the
events as they unfolded against the backdrop of a changing institutional
framework, and governance reforms. No encompassing study of such an
exceptional period exists. The architecture of the European Economic and
Monetary Union has also been changing. We also report several studies of
the monetary measures during the prolonged crisis, as well as diverse
criticisms of the ECB actions.
The crisis started as a Financial Turmoil in August 2007, followed
by the Global Financial Crisis in September 2008, and the Great
Recession in 2009-2010. These events exacerbated several imbalances that
had already been emerging in the euro area not long after the launch of
the euro. The financial governance could not deter them and financial
market discipline was weak. Flaws in EMU's architecture became
apparent. Then, in early 2010 the Sovereign Debt Crisis of the euro area
was triggered by unsustainable fiscal positions and overleveraged banks
in diverse countries. Financial backstops for either sovereigns or banks
lacked. At the peak of this phase, there was financial fragmentation and
a disruption in monetary transmission.
During the mutating crisis, the policy toolkit of the ECB has
expanded to also encompass: the provision of liquidity on demand at a
fixed rate and with full allotment since October 2008; a series of
longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) providing liquidity to banks
against a set of collateral that was broadened; the Outright Monetary
Transactions (OMTs) programme; enhanced monetary policy communication
through forward guidance (on both policy rates and asset purchases); a
large-scale private and public asset purchase programme (CBPP, SMP and
APP); and the use of negative interest rates. In the euro area, banks
play a predominant role in the financial system. Thus, a feature of the
ECB's responses is that they have supported banks' credit
provision throughout the crisis.
The effects of the ECB's monetary policy responses to the
prolonged crisis have been showing through in the euro area's
recovery since mid-2014. Monetary policy has been accompanied by
exceptional policy responses by national governments, strengthening of
European institutions, building a crisis management framework with
fiscal backstops, launching the single supervisory mechanism (SSM), and
various other reforms. These milestones are also noted in the
chronology.
Several criticisms of the euro, the ECB and the single monetary
policy have been put forward in recent years. In fact, such criticisms
started even before the launch of the euro. For example, Paul Krugman
and Joe Feldstein argued that the euro area was not an Optimum Currency
Area and a crisis was a matter of time. Stiglitz (2016) revisits these
arguments in a recent book. (1) Yet others questioned the fiscal
dimension of exceptional monetary policies as well as swelling TARGET
system (Sinn 2011, 2012; Sinn and Wollmershauser 2011), the handling of
sovereign crisis by "Troikas" (also Stiglitz 2016), the
"too low interest rates, for too long" like from BIS
researchers (Borio et al. 2016, 2017).
This article is organised as follows. "Financial Turmoil:
August 2007 to September 2008" section describes the financial
turmoil that marked the beginning of the crisis in August 2007.
"The Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession: September
2008 to May 2010" section reviews the global financial crisis that
started in September 2008 and the Great Recession of 2009-2010.
"Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis: May 2010 to 2nd Half 2013"
section covers the euro area sovereign debt crisis that began in early
2010. "The Low Inflation Phase: Starting in 2nd Half of 2013"
section discusses the policy responses during the low inflation phase of
the crisis starting in the second half of 2013. "A Recap of the
Policy Responses to the Crisis" section groups the non-standard
monetary policy measures into four main clusters. "Final
Remarks" section offers some final remarks. The paper provides only
a selective account until June 2018.
Financial Turmoil: August 2007 to September 2008
The ECB's monetary policy strategy rapidly unfolded after the
launch of the euro. During the first decade, price stability was broadly
achieved, despite various shocks. These included the burst of the
dot-com bubble, sharp exchange rate fluctuations and the September 11
attack. (2) Overall, the unemployment rate in the euro area declined and
trade in goods and services deepened. Money markets and sovereign bond
markets rapidly integrated (see ECB 2008). Cross-border bank activity
increased, but it consisted principally in short-term financial flows to
the euro area "periphery" that turned into a credit-boom
(Constancio 2013). The removal of cross-currency-matching restrictions
enabled a rapid increase in cross-country holdings of public debt.
Instead, integration was slow and uneven across other financial segments
(e.g. equities and insurances). In hindsight, financial market
discipline was inadequate. Moreover, EMU's architecture remained
incomplete, control mechanisms were weak, and euro area governance was
unable to contain persistent real imbalances and spur national reforms
where needed (Brunnermeier 2009; Mackowiak et al. 2009).
Initially, the epicentre of the financial crisis was in the USA,
not Europe. In fact, financial turbulences started in August 2007, when
delinquencies on sub-prime financial products surged in the USA,
impeding the correct pricing of the underlying assets. Financial market
tensions then spilled over from the USA into Europe and beyond, setting
in motion what was principally a liquidity crisis. In the money market,
the spread between the unsecured interest rate (i.e. the EURIBOR) and
the overnight index swap (OIS) rates started widening at all maturities
(Fig. 1).
As a result of the turmoil, market participants grew increasingly
concerned about access to market liquidity and possible non-repayment by
counterparties. The ECB responded quickly by offering more frequent
overnight fine-tuning operations to banks. These were both
liquidity-providing and liquidity-absorbing and were offered in addition
to the regular fine-tuning operation on the last day of the reserve
maintenance period. In practice, the ECB facilitated the frontloading of
the fulfilment of reserve requirements while steering very short-term
interest rates closer to the MRO rate.
This approach was successful, and money market spreads briefly
decreased in the latter part of 2007. The ECB reassured market
participants affected by the financial turmoil by providing them with
continued access to liquidity through more frequent refinancing
operations. On average, balanced liquidity conditions were maintained
over the reserve maintenance periods. (3)
However, money market calm was short-lived and longer-term
repurchase agreements were soon required. When tensions re-emerged at
the end of 2007, the ECB launched several supplementary three-month
LTROs. Then, in March 2008, it introduced six-month LTROs. Liquidity
provision in US dollars became available through a swap agreement with
the Fed.
The euro area economy was still growing at a robust pace, and
labour market conditions tightened. Inflation climbed steadily above the
ECB's definition of price stability, reaching 4% on the back of a
steep increase in global energy prices (Fig. 2). However, inflation
expectations still remained well anchored. In July 2008, the Governing
Council raised the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points to counter
risks of second-round effects stemming from higher energy and food
prices (Fig. 3).
To sum up, the instruments of the ECB's monetary policy
framework enabled a quick response to the Financial Turmoil. During most
of this phase, policy rates were kept steady (until July 2008), but
longer maturities were offered at refinancing operations. There was
almost no excess liquidity, and net recourse to the standing facilities
(the difference between the amounts in the MLF and the deposit facility)
was relatively small. Policy responses at the European level were
absent.
The Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession: September 2008
to May 2010
After Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in September 2008, the
financial crisis intensified and spread rapidly around the world
becoming a global financial crisis. Solvency concerns rose steeply as
several financial institution were perceived as vulnerable. The business
model of these banks--relying on short-term funding, low capitalisation
and high leverage ratios, and securitisation--was hit hard. In the euro
area, whose economy is heavily dependent on banks, this imperilled the
transmission of monetary policy impulses.
Cuts in interest rates were coordinated among major central
banks--the ECB cut its three reference rates by a cumulative 125 basis
points by the end of 2008. Market illiquidity, combined with concerns
about the insolvency of other large US financial institutions, fuelled a
confidence crisis. The prevailing fear was that, despite the
interventions of central banks, available liquidity might not be
sufficient to meet banks' liquidity needs (Cassola et al. 2011).
This prompted a breakdown of all segments of the euro area money market
by late September 2008 (Heider et al. 2015; Durre and Smets 2014).
The hoarding of liquidity gained pace. The challenge for the ECB
was to foster an even transmission of monetary policy impulses across
countries and banks, while helping fend off risks of a financial
meltdown. It had to secure liquidity for money market participants that
needed it, and counter a credit crunch. In October 2008, the ECB decided
to offer unlimited liquidity at a fixed rate against collateral: a fixed
rate full allotment tender procedures (FRFA). This was applied to all
refinancing operations. The FRFA marked a turning point for the
ECB's reverse lending operations and generated a substantial
increase in overall excess liquidity, which was demand driven due to the
crisis. Later on, with the APP, the increase in excess liquidity was
instead supply driven.
In October 2008, the European Commission eased the EU's State
Aid Rules of the European Union. This enabled several European
governments to reassure markets and intensify direct measures of support
for their domestic banking systems. Despite these policy responses,
tensions spilled over from the financial sector into the real economy,
leading to the Great Recession. It hit the USA from the last quarter of
2007 until first quarter of 2009, and the euro area a few months later.
Lehman Brothers' collapse hit trade financing, and global trade
plummeted by one-third in the fourth quarter of 2008. Global economic
confidence plunged, driving down production, investment and consumption.
Within a few months, the euro area had entered its own severe
recession, which lasted from the second quarter of 2008 until the second
quarter of 2009. In response, numerous policy measures were deployed
across Europe, such as a fiscal loosening via automatic stabilisers, as
well as bank rescues in some countries.
Then, in November 2008, the European Commission formulated a 200
billion [euro] concerted European Economic Recovery Plan to boost demand
and stimulate confidence across the EU. The Stability and Growth Pact
was revised and softened, and the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedures
(MIP) were launched.
The collapse in money market activity and soaring spreads prevented
rate cuts from being passed through to banks and the economy. In
addition to the FRFA, the ECB launched a series of standard and
non-standard monetary policy measures: Policy rates--namely, the fixed
rate on the MROs--were cut sequentially from 4.25% on the eve of Lehman
Brothers' bankruptcy (on 15 September 2008), eventually reaching
1.00% (on 13 May 2009). The interest rate corridor defined by the
standing facilities was reduced to 100 basis points between October 2008
and January 2009; liquidity in certain foreign currencies continued to
be provided by the ECB, and international coordination with other major
central banks was strengthened; and eligibility criteria for collateral
were temporarily extended.
The "separation principle" was also formulated at this
time. In a regime of FRFA, banks could borrow the liquidity that they
needed, but only against adequate collateral subject to varying haircuts
and only if they were financially sound. This switch marked the
beginning of the ECB's non-standard monetary policy measures.
Thus, central bank intermediation stepped in as a substitute for
impaired private intermediation. At the same time, safeguards were
observed. Eligibility for Eurosystem monetary policy operations was
restricted to credit institutions supervised according to harmonised EU,
or equivalent, standards. The national central bank could provide
emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) on a temporary basis, provided the
financial institution was deemed solvent and could provide adequate
collateral, and as long as the ECB's Governing Council did not
object (see Linzert and Smets 2015).
The ECB acquired a "market functioning support role" by
carrying out the first outright purchase programme. Securitised
activities were hit during the crisis. Most transactions in structured
financial instruments, such as asset-backed securities, certificates of
deposit, commercial papers and covered bonds, also ceased. There was a
general mistrust about the quality of underlying assets. Moreover,
market activity in the sovereign bond markets of stressed countries
froze up. To address these tensions, in July 2009 the ECB launched a 60
billion [euro] covered bond purchase programme (CBPP) to be implemented
over the following 12 months. The CBPP was the first outright purchase
programme carried out by the ECB. Its aim was to revive this funding
channel for banks and support their credit intermediation. This would,
in turn, alleviate the impaired monetary transmission.
The combination of these standard and non-standard monetary policy
responses had a beneficial impact. It succeeded in reducing interest
rate spreads between the unsecured and secured segments of the money
market. In September 2009, spreads reached their lowest level since the
start of the crisis in August 2007, bringing some short-lived
improvements in euro area money market conditions. This window of
opportunity was used to promote diverse institutional reforms at the
European level.
Plans for a new European System of Financial Supervision (EFSF)
were launched in June 2009, becoming effective in January 2011. The
first pillar of the EFSF is represented by the European Banking
Authority (EBA), the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions
Authority (EIOPA) and the European Securities and Markets Authority
(ESMA). The second pillar of the EFSF is dedicated to macroprudential
supervision and centred on the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB),
which has a mandate to identify systemic risks. The European Council of
June 2009 also recommended establishing a "European Single
Rulebook" applicable to all financial institutions in the Single
Market. (4)
To sum up, the combination of exceptional monetary and non-monetary
policies facilitated an initial economic and financial recovery from the
Great Recession. Yet, despite the impact of these policy responses and a
strengthened EU institutional framework, new challenges were looming.
Attention started shifting to debt overhangs. Fiscal fundamentals
rapidly weakened in several euro area countries. The global financial
crisis and the Great Recession exacerbated euro area imbalances and put
substantial pressure on several euro area governments (Mongelli 2013).
Thus, the market began questioning the sustainability of public finances
in a growing number of euro area countries due to rising deficits and
swelling public debt.
Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis: May 2010 to 2nd Half 2013
Greece became a focal point of the financial crisis and contagion
spread to other vulnerable countries following the negative news about
Greece's public finances. Market concerns regarding the
sustainability of the Greek public debt were amplified by its
large-scale revisions in fiscal statistics. In April 2010, faced with a
lack of market access, the Greek government, the European Commission and
the IMF signed a Memorandum of Understanding on a programme to deal with
the country's fiscal, structural and macroeconomic imbalances. The
programme was funded via bilateral loans provided by the euro area
Member States and then EU/EFSF/IMF support which was conditional on
compliance with an agreed adjustment programme. On 10 May 2010, the
10-year yield spread between Greek and German government bonds reached
the then-historical high of around 1000 basis points.
With each euro area adjustment programme, starting with Greece, the
ECB acted in liaison with the European Commission and the IMF to assess
the fulfilment of the conditions attached to the financial assistance
programme. This cooperation became known as "troika". At that
time, there was no framework in place to negotiate and monitor
adjustment programmes. "Member states then asked the IMF, the
Commission and the ECB to contribute with their expertise at the time
when help was most needed. [] The ECB is subject to criticism for having
interfered too much in matters of national sovereignty". (5) In
recent years, however, the lack of financial backstops for sovereigns
and banks has been addressed. Later on, in the paper we describe the
creation of the permanent European Stability Mechanism and the launch of
the Single Supervisory Mechanism and a Single Resolution Mechanism for
banks.
Concerns regarding the sustainability of public finances also arose
in Ireland, Portugal and, later, Spain and Italy. Sovereign bond spreads
for several euro area countries soared (see Fig. 4). Financial contagion
had a negative impact on market liquidity and the market for new and
existing sovereign debt. For example, Ang and Longstaff (2013) compare
credit default swap rates in the euro area with those across individual
states in the USA and find evidence of a larger common factor.
Negative feedback loops between vulnerable banks, indebted
sovereigns and weak economies took hold in several countries (Shambaugh
et al. 2012). After an already prolonged crisis, a sequence of sovereign
rating downgrades was accompanied almost simultaneously by downgrades of
most marketable securities issued by financial institutions
headquartered in countries affected by the sovereign debt crisis. This,
in turn, led to further downgrades across a broad range of assets in the
private securities markets. The decreasing prices of these assets
weakened the balance sheets of financial institutions, while their
recapitalisation through equity issuance and/or government support
appeared less and less likely (given the fiscal consolidation needed in
most countries to restore confidence in sovereign debt markets).
In May 2010, the ECB expanded its monetary policy outright
portfolio through secondary market purchases from credit institutions in
euro area public and private debt securities markets under the
Securities Markets Programme (SMP). The SMP was introduced after Greece
had received the first bilateral support and then EU/EFSF/IMF
conditional support: following the programme agreement. Although the SMP
was not subject to explicit conditionally, the ECB (2010) took note of
the commitments taken by the countries benefitting from the SMP
purchases to accelerate fiscal consolidation and ensure the
sustainability of their public finances.
The SMP ran until the end of December 2012 and reached an
outstanding nominal amount of around 218 billion [euro]. The extra
liquidity resulting from these purchases was sterilised by offering
banks fixed-term deposits with a 1-week maturity on a weekly basis.
Bonds purchased under the SMP were retained until maturity.
How effective was the SMP? While estimates vary, the evidence is
that SMP interventions countered upward pressures on spreads and lowered
the volatility of sovereign yields for most stressed countries. The
exception was Greece due to its long-term fiscal sustainability issues
(see Ghysels et al. 2017). A counterfactual exercise suggests that
purchases of Italian and Spanish bonds lowered 2-year yields by 320 and
180 basis points, respectively, and 10-year yields by 230 basis points
for both countries (see Eser and Schwaab 2016).
At the European level, new institutions were created as a financial
backstop for sovereigns and, later, for banks. In October 2010, the
leaders of France and Germany met in Deauville and publicly discussed
the possibility of restructuring sovereign debt plus private sector
involvement (PSI). As financial tensions escalated again and spilled
over to sovereign debt markets beyond Greece, it was announced that two
additional sources of financial assistance to countries--subject to
conditionality--would be established: the European Financial
Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM) and the European Financial Stability
Facility (EFSF). The EFSM was an intergovernmental agreement with a
maximum lending capacity of 60 billion [euro].
In December 2010, the European Council agreed to create a permanent
mechanism for the provision of financial assistance to countries, and
thus the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) took over the tasks of the
EFSF. This required some amendments to Article 136 of the Treaty on the
Functioning of the European Union.
There was also a short-lived hike in interest rates. All three of
the ECB's reference rates were raised by 25 basis points in April
2011 and again in July 2011, following almost 2 years of no changes. The
euro area economy had grown by 0.8% in the first quarter of the year,
and the economic analysis revealed some upside risks to price stability.
In fact, inflation had risen to 2.6% in March 2011 (and actually reached
3% towards the end of the year). There were concerns about second-round
effects in the setting of prices and wages, and a risk of inflation
expectations becoming dis-anchored from the ECB's definition of
price stability. With this interest rate increase, the ECB sent a signal
to price-setters and social partners--that it was unwilling to accept
second-round effects.
The EU's institutional framework was strengthened through
various governance reforms. In order to strengthen the governance of the
euro area, the "six-pack" was finalised in December 2011,
which entailed a reform of the Stability and Growth Pact, minimum
requirements for national fiscal frameworks and the launch of the
macroeconomic imbalance procedure. A "Fiscal Compact" to
promote prudent fiscal behaviour throughout the euro area was signed in
March 2012 (becoming operational in January 2013). It was followed by a
"two-pack" that strengthened coordination and monitoring of
budgetary processes.
Meanwhile, most euro area countries started a process of fiscal
consolidation. Fiscal consolidation started in 2011 and lasted until
2013. During this process of fiscal consolidation, revenue increases
predominated over expenditure cuts. Approximately two-thirds of the 3.6
percentage points of potential GDP consolidation during 2011-2013 were
revenue based (ECB 2017a, b).
The ECB had to counter acute financial fragmentation. The problem
was that cross-border transactions within the banking system suddenly
ground to a halt and funds flew out of stressed countries to national
banking systems that were perceived as safer (see Constancio 2013;
Altavilla and Giannone 2016).
By mid-July 2011, financial tensions intensified again. This time
the driving factor was the worsening of public finances in several euro
area countries and the restructuring of Greek sovereign debt. As a
result, financial conditions tightened and economic confidence fell.
Euro area economic activity contracted in the second half of 2011, in
what is often referred to as the "double-dip recession".
Towards the end of 2011, high financial market uncertainty and
banks' deleveraging contributed to a further reduction in money and
credit growth. The banking system of several euro area countries was
severely affected by escalating financial tensions and renewed
fragmentation. This hampered funding of a significant portion of the
banking sector in the euro area (which then had a knock-on effect on
credit creation).
In this challenging environment, the ECB reversed the interest rate
hikes of April and July 2011. Rates were cut in November and December
2011 by a total of 50 basis points. At the same time, the ECB introduced
several new non-standard measures including: two LTROs of 12 months and
13 months were announced on 6 October 2011, as well as a second covered
bond purchase programme (CBPP2) for an intended amount of 40 billion
[euro]; and two 36-month very long-term refinancing operations (VLTROs),
with the option of early repayment after 1 year, were conducted in
December 2011 and February 2012, with a combined gross amount of 1.019
trillion [euro].
These VLTROs gave banks funding certainty, eased redemption of
maturing bonds and helped them sustain credit lines with private
customers. Moreover, on 8 December 2011, the ECB also enlarged the
collateral list reduced the reserve ratio from 2 to 1%; and discontinued
the fine-tuning operations carried out on the last day of each
maintenance period.
These measures brought much needed financial support for
banks' funding. The impact of the two VLTRO operations could be
detected through a variety of indicators. First, risks of a major credit
crunch in the euro area receded significantly in the first quarter of
2012, as shown by the stabilisation in the size of the balance sheets of
euro area monetary financial institutions (MFIs). Second, the bank
lending survey pointed to a stabilisation in the provision of credit to
the economy. Third, several indicators of financial market volatility
and risk premia also showed that financial markets were calmer in the
first quarter of 2012 (see Kohler-Ulbrich et al. 2016).
In hindsight, the actions of the Eurosystem temporarily restored
some measure of monetary policy transmission. The pass-through or
monetary policy was supported by progress in fiscal consolidation, a
series of EU/euro area summits, the above institutional and governance
reforms, and some structural adjustments in several euro area countries.
For a short interval, the negative feedback loop relented.
In early 2012, weak growth and news of fiscal slippages in several
countries strained financial markets once more, and financial tensions
rose again. A rise in redenomination risk premia of sovereign bond
yields led again to a widening in the cost of funding for several
stressed euro area countries. (6) It also meant that the proper
transmission of the ECB's policy stance to the real economy was
again being seriously hampered across the euro area.
On 27 June 2012, Spain requested financial support for its banking
system and Cyprus requested a full adjustment programme. Two days later,
on 29 June 2012, the European Council agreed to create a European
banking supervision mechanism and a resolution mechanism. This was the
first step towards the banking union which required a proposal by the
European Commission.
On 11 July, the ECB lowered rates by 25 basis points, narrowing the
corridor to 1.00%. The DFR reached 0% in July 2012 (and was then left
unchanged for almost 2 years, despite gradual declines in the MRO and
MLF rates). The ECB then suspended Greek bonds as collateral. (They had
only been reaccepted as collateral in March 2012.)
Preserving the unity of the euro area became the defining challenge
of the crisis. On 26 July 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi delivered a
speech in London in which he gave the assurance that: "Within our
mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.
And believe me, it will be enough". (7) This landmark speech is
widely credited with calming markets.
Several days later, on 2 August 2012, the ECB's Governing
Council announced the outright monetary transactions (OMTs). OMTs
consist of purchasing sovereign bonds in secondary markets under strict
conditions with the aim of "... safeguarding an appropriate
monetary policy transmission and the singleness of the monetary
policy". The technical framework of OMTs was announced on 6
September 2012 and, on the same day, the SMP was terminated. A necessary
requirement for OMTs was strict and effective conditionality attached to
an appropriate EFSF/ESM programme. Moreover, the liquidity created
through OMTs would be fully sterilised and aggregate OMT holdings and
their market values would be published on a weekly basis.
The impact of the OMTs announcement was immediate and sovereign
bond spreads started to contract. Market participants gained confidence
that stressed sovereigns could apply for financial support, satisfy the
necessary conditions and enable the ECB to intervene in their secondary
bond markets (see Altavilla and Giannone 2016).
In September 2012, the European Commission published a proposal for
a Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) for banks in the euro area. The aim
was to harmonise banking supervision practices and ensure that single
market rules were applied consistently across banks. In December 2012,
four European Presidents outlined a roadmap towards a genuine Economic
and Monetary Union. One year later, on 12 September 2013, the European
Parliament voted in favour of creating the SSM, with the ECB at its
centre. In preparation, a comprehensive assessment of 130 significant
banks' balance sheets was launched in October 2013. It was
completed ahead of the SSM assuming its official supervisory role on 1
November 2014.
In the meantime, forward guidance and the need to anchor
expectations acquired an ever greater importance. On 8 May 2013, the ECB
lowered rates and further narrowed the interest rate corridor, meaning
that room for further cuts in interest rates was increasingly limited.
Then, on 4 July 2013, the ECB introduced forward guidance about the
future path of key interest rates, e.g. announcing that they would
remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. (8)
The aim was to anchor policy expectations and influence the shape of the
yield curve.
The ECB's forward guidance is of a qualitative nature and
contingent on the outlook for price stability. There were no
quantitative criteria that would trigger changes of policy rates. The
stabilising effect on financial markets was apparent immediately. The
level of the money market yield curve, uncertainty about future policy
rates, the nervousness of financial markets and the responsiveness of
short-term yields to macroeconomic news all declined immediately after
the announcement (Fig. 5).
To sum up, as contagion spread from Greece to other vulnerable
countries, the main challenge for the ECB was to counter acute financial
fragmentation and preserve the singleness of monetary policy. Following
the negative news about Greece's public finances, negative feedback
loops between vulnerable banks, indebted sovereigns and weak economies
took hold in several euro area countries. At the European level, new
institutions were created to provide a financial backstop for
sovereigns. The ECB meanwhile announced the OMT programme of sovereign
bond purchases in secondary bond markets, conditional on an adjustment
programme, which calmed tensions in financial markets. Upon the launch
of the SSM, the ECB acquired the additional responsibility of single
supervision and a shared role for financial stability in the euro area
(see Smets 2014).
The Low Inflation Phase: Starting in 2nd Half of 2013
In the second half of 2013 headline inflation began to fall once
more, raising fears of deflation. (9) Inflation fell from 1.5% in
July-August 2013, to -0.7% in January 2015 (see Fig. 6). Inflation
expectations, which up until then had remained well anchored, started to
decline. Concerns of a prolonged period of low inflation grew, which led
the ECB to lower rates again on 11 November 2013.
During this period, monetary policy transmission became impaired
and uneven. While some lags in the transmission of monetary policy
impulses are normal, in June 2014 it was observed that the bulk of the
reduction in ECB key policy rates, a cumulative 125 basis points between
September 2011 and June 2014, had not yet been transmitted to households
and firms in stressed euro area countries. Hence, the monetary policy
stance had in fact tightened in these countries, as real interest rates
were subject to upward pressures induced by falling inflation. At the
same time, the medium-term outlook for inflation continued worsening,
while the exchange rate of the euro strengthened. Thus, there was a need
to extend the range of non-standard instruments that the ECB could
employ. (10)
One such measure was negative interest rates, which the ECB
introduced in June 2014, before lowering rates still further in
September 2014. When the DFR was brought below zero it marked the first
occasion on which a major central bank had lowered a key policy rate
into negative territory. With low inflation and a declining natural rate
of interest, slightly negative rates were aimed at restoring the
signalling capacity of the central bank by breaching the Zero Lower
Bound (see Coeure 2016; Constancio 2016; Rostagno et al. 2016). Real
rates adjust downward compensating for low inflation and contributing to
a significant flattening of the yield curve. Inflation expectations are
corrected upward with the rise in aggregate demand (see Lemke et al.
2017). Banks holding excess reserves have an incentive to increase
lending to the economy.
Additional credit easing measures were also added to revive the
provision of credit to the economy. The ECB announced a renewed round of
credit easing with a series of targeted longer-term refinancing
operations (TLTROs) fixed at the MRO rate plus 10 basis points. However,
this surcharge was abolished in January 2015. The maximum maturity for
the TLTROs was set to September 2018, and the initial allowance amounted
to 7% of outstanding loans to the euro area non-financial private
sector. The ECB sought to actively relieve credit conditions across
financial markets and support the bank lending channel.
Evidence from the bidding behaviour in the TLTRO, from banks
located in formerly stressed euro area countries highlights that those
banks which have participated in at least one of the first four TLTROs
have thereafter lowered their lending rates: they could replace more
expensive unsecured debt funding.
These credit easing measures were complemented by the ECB's
asset-backed securities purchase programme (ABSPP). This programme is
based on purchases of simple and transparent asset-backed securities
issued by the non-financial private sector, i.e. claims against the euro
area non-financial private sector, whose market had shrunk during the
crisis. Then, in September 2014, the ECB announced a third covered bond
purchase programme (CBPP3) consisting of purchases of eurodenominated
covered bonds issued by MFIs in the euro area. These programmes began to
have a sizeable impact on the ECB's balance sheet (see "Final
Remarks" section).
There were synergies. Ever longer reverse lending operations were
reinforced by CBPPs that reduced corporate bond spreads and revitalised
this market segment. These measures insured banks against the risks
associated with short-term refinancing in money markets enabling them to
then charge lower lending rates. Strained banks facing financing
difficulties and/or high funding costs benefitted the most (see Alvarez
et al. 2017; Darracq-Paries and De Santis 2015, and recent Bank Lending
Survey (BLS) on ECB website).
The cumulative effect of standard and non-standard measures started
to be felt, and bank lending rates fell. Between June 2014 and September
2015, bank lending rates for euro area non-financial corporations fell
by approximately 80 basis points. In stressed countries, these rates
fell by about 110-140 basis points, suggesting that the pass-through of
the ECB's policy stance strengthened most in the countries hit
hardest by the crisis. Yet, despite improved financing conditions,
economic growth remained subdued, downside risks increased and inflation
dynamics remained weak, with significant downside risks and even
deflation. Given this mixed outcome, a new round of measures became
necessary.
In January 2015, the ECB announced an expanded APP, with average
monthly purchases of public and private sector securities of 60 billion
[euro]. APP purchases are intended to be carried out until at least
September 2016 and in any case until the Governing Council sees a
sustained adjustment in the path of inflation that is consistent with
returning to price stability over the medium term.
The expanded APP would operate through diverse transmission
channels. One is the portfolio rebalancing channel--APP-related
purchases reduce the average duration of securities held by the public
and raise liquidity holdings by financial institutions, which encourages
them to acquire a broader range of other assets. This lowers their
yields and, in turn, lowers the cost of external financing for firms and
households. There is then the direct impact on cost of financing for
private sector programmes. Another channel is the policy signalling
commensurate with the size of the central bank's balance sheet and
the perception of its commitment to its mandate. Signalling also
supports the anchoring of market expectations of future interest rates,
and wage and price-setting. APP purchases lower lending rates, and last
there is the foreign exchange channel.
Reinforcing transparency and strengthening communication. In
January 2015 the ECB Governing Council started releasing the accounts of
the Governing Council meetings: i.e. 4-weeks after the monetary policy
meetings. At the same time the frequency of these meetings was switched
from monthly to 8-times per year.
The expanded APP succeeded in putting downward pressure on
long-term interest rates, and flattening the term structure of interest
rates. Not long thereafter, the financial cycle began to turn as a
result of the staggered effects of the TLTROs and the expanded APP. In
July 2015, the bank lending survey showed that year-on-year contraction
had stopped and loans had started to grow at a very modest rate of just
above zero. The gradual recovery in credit markets is illustrated in
Figs. 7 and 8.
Inflation forecasts for 2016 and 2017 were revised downwards.
Growth remained weak (albeit still positive since second quarter of
2013) and unemployment declined slowly, but steadily, from high levels.
Thus, considerable economic slack remained, although estimates differed
widely. Moreover, price pressures remained on the downside as
manufacturer prices and input costs continued falling, but at a slower
pace. Despite the deflation risk subsiding, the correlation between core
and headline inflation was increasing over time. This raised a new
concern--that persistently below-target inflation could become
entrenched, i.e. embedded in second-round effects. There was less and
less room to absorb any further shocks from falling global demand.
On 9 December 2015, the ECB lowered interest rates further and
announced a recalibration of the APP, which was also prolonged until
March 2017, or beyond if necessary. The purpose was to attain a
sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with the
Governing Council's aim of achieving inflation rates below, but
close to, 2% over the medium term. (11) This APP recalibration I was
accompanied by several more actions, such as reinvesting principal
payments and extending the list of APP-eligible assets to include
securities issued by regional and local governments. Interest rates on
sovereign bonds, corporate bonds and loans all fell. The euro reversed
the appreciation it had been experiencing since summer 2015, and equity
prices edged higher.
In mid-2015, the 2012 plan for a genuine EMU was revamped by the
Five Presidents' Report. This report set the goal of completing
four unions in three stages by 2025 (12): a fiscal union to establish a
framework for sound and integrated fiscal policies; an economic union to
promote convergence, prosperity and social cohesion; a financial union
that would add a capital markets union to the banking union; and a
political union promoting democratic accountability and the
strengthening of institutions (see European Commission 2014; Dorrucci et
al. 2015). Hence, elements of a new "constitutional framework"
for the euro area are gradually starting to emerge.
On 10 March 2016, the ECB lowered rates again, bringing the
interest rate corridor down to 65 basis points. The interest rate on the
MROs was lowered by 5 basis points to 0.00%, the interest rate on the
MLF by 5 basis points to 0.25%, and the interest rate on the deposit
facility by 10 basis points to -0.40%. At the same time, a considerable
expansion of the APP was announced, with average monthly purchases
increased to 80 billion [euro] (APP recalibration II). The ECB also
launched a corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) as an integral
part of the APP. As part of the CSPP, in June 2016 the Eurosystem
started purchasing investment-grade eurodenominated bonds issued by
non-bank corporations established in the euro area. (13)
Four new targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO II),
each with a maturity of 4 years, were also announced, starting in June
2016 and running until March 2017. A new feature was that borrowing
rates for these operations could be as low as the interest rate on the
deposit facility. Banks exceeding the lending benchmark would be able to
borrow at the DFR, meaning that their cost of funding would be negative
and they would be receiving a de facto subsidy. The aim of this TLTRO II
is to incentivise lending to the real economy and reinforce the
pass-through of the asset purchases to the financing conditions of the
real economy and provide additional monetary stimulus to return to price
stability.
On 8 December 2016, the ECB decided to continue its purchases under
the APP at the pace of 80 billion [euro] per month, on average, until
the end of March 2017 {APP recalibration III). Then, from April 2017,
net asset purchases under the APP would be brought back to an average of
60 billion [euro] per month until the end of 2017 and would continue at
that pace until a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation towards
price stability was seen. There were two important parameter changes:
the maturity range of public sector purchases was broadened by
decreasing the minimum remaining maturity for eligible securities from 2
to 1 year, and purchases of securities under the APP at a yield to
maturity below the interest rate on the ECB's deposit facility
would be allowed. There was also an enhancement of the PSPP securities
lending facilities with a possibility to use cash as collateral (with an
overall limit of 50 billion for the Eurosystem), and pricing linked to
the deposit facility rate.
On 26 October 2017, the asset purchase programme saw an extension
of the programme until September 2018 with a monthly pace of purchases
of 30 billion starting from January 2018. The main refinancing
operations and the three-month longer-term refinancing operations will
continue to be conducted as fixed rate tender procedures with full
allotment for as long as necessary, and at least until the end of the
last reserve maintenance period of 2019.
On 14 June 2018, the asset purchase programme was extended until
December 2018 with a monthly pace of purchases reduced to 15 billion
[euro] starting from October 2018. This APP recalibration is conditional
on incoming data on medium-term inflation outlook. This represents an
announcement of the end of the net asset purchases at the end of
December 2018. At the same time, the Governing Council announced that it
expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at
least through the summer of 2019.
To sum up, there is evidence that the cumulative effect of standard
and nonstandard monetary policy measures has been working. They have
generated strong downward pressure on financing costs, with rates
falling steeply across asset classes, maturities and countries, as well
as across different categories of borrowers. Recent ECB bank lending
surveys confirm that demand for loans and credit has rebounded and that
financing conditions are converging (see Kohler-Ulbrich et al. 2016).
While the economic expansion actually accelerated in the first half of
2017 (across countries and sectors), this has yet to translate into
stronger inflation (HICP inflation was around 1.5% in August 2017).
Andrade et al. (2016) find that the announcement of the APP in
January 2015 was effective in reducing sovereign yields on long-term
bonds and raising the share prices of banks holding relatively higher
shares of sovereign bonds in their portfolios. This is consistent with
versions of the portfolio rebalancing channel acting through the removal
of duration risk and the relaxation of leverage constraints for
financial intermediaries.
There was also a "signalling effect". After the
announcement of the programme, market expectations of future short-term
interest rates edged down, while inflation expectations tended to
increase. The introduction of the APP also helped the ECB guide
long-term inflation expectations closer to its price stability objective
by reducing private sector uncertainty about the length of the horizon
over which price stability will be restored (see Coenen and Schmidt
2016).
A Recap of the Policy Responses to the Crisis
Monetary Policy Responses to the Crisis
Since the onset of the crisis, the interest rate instrument has
been used to its fullest extent, and the ECB is the only major central
bank to have lowered one of its policy rates--the deposit facility rate
(DFR)--into negative territory. Overall, since mid-2008 the MRO rate has
been reduced by a cumulative 4.75%, the DFR by 5.2% and the MLF rate
also by 5.2%. Further, since early 2009 the EONIA has always been close
to the DFR and thus has mostly been in negative territory since
mid-2014. Lowering the DFR to below zero is itself a non-standard
measure.
In hindsight, slightly negative interest rates have so far had a
positive effect on the economy, helping to lower bank funding costs and
boosting asset prices (Jobst and Lin 2016). Negative rates have also
enhanced the signalling effect of the ECB's monetary stance
strengthening its forward guidance. Moreover, there have been synergies
with other NSMs as the lower deposit rate has also supported the
portfolio rebalancing channel of the Asset Purchase Program by
encouraging banks to substitute investment in riskier assets for excess
reserves (van Riet 2017a, b; Reis 2016). Thus, NIRP has supported
accommodative financing conditions to an extent that would not have been
possible otherwise.
The other non-standard monetary policy measures can be grouped into
four main clusters. As the financial turmoil hit in August 2007, the
first cluster of nonstandard measures were longer "reverse
repurchase operations" (see Table 1). This table does not reflect
an official classification by the ECB. For example, MROs at fixed rate
full allotment are arbitrarily listed as providing credit easing, and
TLTROs are classified under the "conventional" instruments,
but in reality they are non-standard measures. The innovation consisted
in extending the credit operation maturities. Initially, ample
refinancing through the MROs and LTROs, as well as some additional
operations (including short-term operations with full allotment), was
sufficient.
Yet, as tensions in funding markets grew, the ECB moved from
variable rate ten'ders to fixed rate full allotment for all credit
operations in October 2008. This led to the provision of unlimited
liquidity at fixed interest rates. The maturity of LTROs was gradually
extended from 3 to 6 months (in March 2008), then to 1 year (at the end
of 2011) and finally to 3 years (in early 2012 through the VLTROs).
Then, starting in June 2014 a series of TLTROs was launched. A second
series (TLTRO II) was launched in June 2016 and ran until March 2017,
with maturities of 4 years.
The second cluster of non-standard measures was a group of "ad
hoc non-standard operations". These included foreign exchange
repurchase agreements and swaps with foreign central banks to lighten
funding constraints for European banks in foreign currencies and foreign
banks in euro, and ad hoc money market interventions to provide or drain
extra liquidity in order to adjust money market conditions. Finetuning
operations remained part of the toolkit and continued to function as
overnight liquidity-providing or liquidity-absorbing operations as
needed. Until early 2012, they were carried out at the end of the
reserve maintenance periods.
The third cluster consisted of an array of "outright purchase
operations". These were all "non-standard" monetary
policy measures, meaning that they were new in terms of the toolkit of
the ECB/Eurosystem. They were initially mainly aimed at repairing the
monetary policy transmission and the improving the functioning of
certain financial market segments. The first set of outright purchase
operations is represented by selective purchases of private sector
securities, such as the covered bond purchase programmes starting in
July 2009 (CBPP1), November 2011 (CBPP2) and September 2014 (CBPP3). A
second set of outright operations is represented by selective purchases
of public sector securities, for instance the SMP between 2010 and 2012
and the OMTs.
The aim of outright operations changed in mid-2014, with the start
of "quantitative easing" policy in order to provide further
monetary stimulus. These purchases mainly aimed at providing more
monetary policy accommodation whilst being at or close to the lower
bound for short-term interest rates. They included purchases of private
sector securities, under the ABSPP and CBPP3 which started in June and
September 2014 and the CSPP which started in June 2016, and purchases of
public sector securities under the PSPP launched in January 2015.
Together, these programmes form the APP.
The CSPP is facilitating NFCs' access to external finance.
Remarkably, there is evidence that CSPPs purchases are benefitting not
only large companies with access to direct financing, but also smaller
enterprises: leaving more room in banks' balance sheet to provide
loans to SMEs (Abidi et al. 2017). Moreover, lower bond market rates
reduce the funding cost of banks allowing them to provide cheaper
funding to SMEs. Steady improvements in the access of SMEs to bank
finance are shown by recent Surveys on the Access to Finance of
Enterprises (SAFE).
In recent years, central bank communication and various types of
verbal commitments have surged in importance (see Blinder et al. 2016).
Thus, the fourth cluster of non-standard measures was "enhanced
communication", beginning in July 2013 with forward guidance. The
ECB's guidance is of a qualitative nature, as it entails a
commitment about the future path of policy rates that is contingent on
the outlook for price stability, with the goal of anchoring inflation
expectations. Enhanced communication was strengthened by a negative
interest rate policy. A case in point was the commitments towards the
active use of non-standard measures in April 2014, and the balance sheet
expansion in November 2014.
There is evidence that central banks' pledges can promote an
earlier and more vigorous recovery by increasing agents' valuation
of longer-term assets and improving their expectations of future
economic activity and prices (see Altavilla and Giannone 2016; Altavilla
et al. 2015). This then leads to higher consumption, business investment
and prices than otherwise would be observed. Private sector forecasts
were gradually revised-up in response to the ECB's responsiveness
to economic slack and low inflation, thus supporting a sustainable
recovery and in curbing undesirable disinflationary pressures.
Non-monetary Policy Responses to the Crisis
Non-monetary policy responses to the protracted and mutating crisis
began already with the Financial Turmoil in August 2007. They gained
pace during the Global Financial Crisis, especially the euro area
crisis. While several were listed in the chronology, it may be useful to
cast a birds-eye view. At the risk of oversimplifying, they can be
organised in three overlapping clusters: direct intervention measures,
strengthening of the institutional framework, and regulatory reforms
(see Table 2).
Early on in the financial crisis, policy responses took primarily
the form of fiscal stimulus, guarantee schemes for bank deposits and
bonds, and direct injections of funds in exchange for equity
(recapitalisation). In mid-2009, there was an acceleration of regulatory
reforms to strengthen the financial system (e.g. Single Rulebook and
CACs), ease sovereign debt tensions and promote a level playing field
for financial services. In mid-2009, there was also a start of
institutional reforms with the launch of three new authorities (EBA,
EIOPA and ESMA) plus the ESRB, then the ESM and SRM, and then governance
reform (e.g. "Six-Pack", Fiscal Compact, "Two-Pack",
and later the 4/5-Presidents Report). On the need to complete national
structural reforms see Draghi (2017).
Final Remarks
When the crisis began in 2007, the ECB's monetary policy
framework enabled a rapid response to the financial turmoil. The ECB was
able to provide market participants with immediate access to liquidity
through more frequent refinancing operations. As the crisis mutated and
deepened, the monetary policy framework had to evolve to counter varying
threats to the unity of the single monetary policy of the euro area.
Conventional monetary policy instruments were augmented to correct
specific impairments in monetary policy transmission and allow for
further accommodation when the room for interest rate cuts shrank.
The ECB has learned several lessons from the crisis. Both the
economic and monetary analyses are now based upon a richer analytical
framework with a broader variety of data. Central banks also realised
the importance of financial stability in assessing threats to price
stability. The ECB's analytical framework now examines threats to
financial stability. Monetary policy implementation in crisis times
requires ever more prudence and responsibility. Moreover, the crisis has
shown that completing EMU is essential for a smooth pass-through of
monetary impulses and the functioning of monetary transmission; other
major central banks did not face this challenge.
During the crisis the importance of communication increased, and
the ECB has enhanced its efforts to be clear and consistent. With
forward guidance, ECB communication has itself become a monetary policy
instrument. Since mid-2014, the monetary policy stance has been
determined by the combination of three types of interventions: low
policy interest rates, asset purchases in financial markets and TLTROs
for banks. Forward guidance is provided for both these interventions.
In hindsight, exceptional monetary policies helped maintaining
price stability and reverting financial fragmentation and impairments in
monetary policy transmission. They also provided time for policy makers
to tackle the shortcomings in EMU's institutional framework and
governance. Without such bold initiatives, it is likely that the crisis
would have hit the euro area with far more severe consequences than were
experienced. An open issue at present is to fathom the future shape of
monetary policies on the path to a "new normal" (see Reis
2016; van Riet 2017a).
The latter decade was also characterised by exceptional policy
responses by governments, the strengthening of several European
institutions, the building of a crisis management framework with
financial backstops, the launch of the SSM and various other reforms.
This institutional transformation needs to be completed in coming years.
Moreover, accommodating monetary policy is not a substitute to complete
necessary national structural reforms.
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(1) "It was a mistake to create a single currency without
creating a set of institutions that enabled a region of Europe's
diversity to function effectively with a single currency." Hence,
"it was almost inevitable that taking away two key adjustment
mechanisms, the interest and exchange rates, without putting anything
else in their place, would make macro adjustment difficult. Add to that
a central bank mandated to focus on inflation and with countries still
further constrained by limits on their fiscal deficits, the result would
be excessively high unemployment and gross domestic product consistently
below potential output. With countries borrowing in a currency not under
their remit, and with no easy mechanism for controlling trade deficits,
crises too were predictable" (Stiglitz 2016).
(2) The ECB makes monetary policy decisions on the basis of a
strategy comprising two elements: a quantitative definition of price
stability, and a two-pillar approach to analysing the risks to price
stability--the economic and monetary analyses. The Governing Council
clarified in 2003 that, in the pursuit of price stability, it aims to
maintain inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
Inflation is calculated based on changes in the Harmonised Index of
Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area as a whole. The ECB conducts
monetary policy by changing its three key reference interest rates: the
rate on the main refinancing operations (MROs), which was originally
called the minimum bid rate; the deposit facility rate (DFR); and the
marginal lending facility (MLF) rate (see Bindseil et al. 2017).
(3) Its three main pillars are: the Capital Requirements Directive
IV (CRD IV) and Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR), and the Bank
recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD. The CRD IV and CRR address the
problem of insufficient capitalization of banks; the amended directive
on Deposit Guarantee Schemes (DGS) endorsing the broadly agreed deposit
guarantee of up to 100,000 [euro]; the BRRD introduced a
"bail-in" mechanism.
(4) See European Parliament
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2Ol6/57OOOO/IPOL
ATA(2016)570000_EN.pdf.
(5) The euro redenomination risk is the risk that a euro asset will
be redenominated into a devalued legacy currency. This event would
follow a country leaving the euro area (De Santis 2015).
(6) The speech was delivered at the Global Investment Conference in
London.
(7) See the article entitled "The ECB's forward
guidance," Monthly Bulletin, ECB, April 2014; and Praet P.
"Forward guidance and the ECB", column published on VoxEU.org.
on 6 August 2013.
(8) See the box entitled "Risk of deflation?", Monthly
Bulletin, ECB, June 2014, pp. 65-69; and Ciccarelli, M. and Osbat, C.
(eds.), "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and
consequences", Occasional Paper Series, No 181, ECB, Frankfurt am
Main, January 2017.
(9) For an extensive study of the interest rate pass-through
channel in an environment of low, and declining, interest rates, see
Camba-Mendez et al. (2016), and the article entitled "The
transmission of the ECB's recent non-standard monetary policy
measures," Economic Bulletin, Issue 7, ECB, 2015.
(10) Specifically, a return to genuine price stability requires the
following three conditions to be satisfied: first, the euro area must be
on a path towards price stability within a meaningful horizon; second,
inflation must stabilise around price stability with sufficient
confidence; and third, the trajectory must be maintained even under less
supportive monetary policy conditions. Recent data are encouraging, but
there is still a need for confidence, patience and persistence.
(11) See https://ec.europa.eu/priorities/sites/beta-political/files/5-presidents-report_en.pdf.
(12) Upon the announcement of the CSPP, the spread between yields
on bonds issued by non-financial corporations and the risk-free rate
declined sharply. Encouragingly, non-financial corporations started
issuing more bonds.
(13) There were also ad hoc euro-denominated operations carried out
in other cases, e.g. the full allotment liquidity-providing operations
carried out on 9 August 2007 and the following days.
https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-018-0074-4
Francesco Paolo Mongelli [1] (iD) * Gonzalo Camba-Mendez [1]
Published online: 31 October 2018
[mail] Francesco Paolo Mongelli
francesco.mongelli@ecb.int
[1] European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany
Caption: Fig. 1 Money market spreads at various maturities in the
euro area. Note: EUR SPREAD for the various maturities (from 1 month
(1M) to 12 months (12 M)) is the difference in percentage points between
the unsecured (EURIBOR) and the secured (OIS) interest rates for each
corresponding maturity. Source: Bloomberg
Caption: Fig. 2 HICP inflation and core inflation (2007-2018).
Notes: Latest observation: June 2017. HICP: annual rate of change. HICP
excluding energy and food, HICP energy and HICP food: contributions in
percentage points. Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations
Caption: Fig. 3 ECB interest rates and money market rates
(2007-2018). Note: daily observations, percentages per annum. Sources:
ECB and Thomson Reuters
Caption: Fig. 4 Ten-year government bond spreads versus Germany
(2007-2018). Note: Daily observations, basis points. Sources: Thomson
Reuters and authors' calculations
Caption: Fig. S Fiscal deterioration and then gradual recovery
(2000-2016). Notes: The output gap is the gap between actual and
potential gross domestic product at 2010 reference levels (expressed as
a percentage of potential gross domestic product at constant prices).
Annual data in percent. Latest observation 2016. Source: ECB
calculations
Caption: Fig. 6 Euro area inflation rate and inflation expectations
(percentages). Notes: I/L swap refers to the euro area inflation-linked
swap. SPF refers to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. Sources:
Eurostat, ECB and Bloomberg
Caption: Fig. 7 Recovery in credit markets (2014-2018). Note:
Composite bank lending conditions for households and firms. Source: ECB
calculations
Caption: Fig. 8 Decline in bank lending rates (2014-2018). Notes:
Latest observation: July 2017; composite bank lending. Source: ECB
calculations
Table 1 ECB monetary policy instruments used as non-standard
measures (2007-2018). Sources: ECB website
Conventional
instruments 2/
"Credit easing"
A. Reverse lending operations ("Repos"): 1/
Refinancing operations
MPOs (Aug 2007 onward) x
MROs at FRFA (Aug 2007 onward) x
LTROs (3 months) at FRFA (Aug 2007 x
onward)
LTROs (6 months) at FRFA (March 2008 x
onward)
Supplementary LTROs at 1 year x
Very long LTROs at 3 years (Nov 11 and Dec x
12)
TLTROs (June 2014 and max maturity Sep. x
2018)
TLTRO II: Targeted LTROs (June 2016- x
March 2017)
B. Ad hoc non-standard operations:
Forex Repos and Swaps (2008-2009) x
Various ad hoc fine-tunings as needed x
C. Outright operations
Purchases of private sector securities
CBPP1 (July 2009)
CBPP2 (November 2011)
CBPP3 (Sep. 2014)
Selective purchases of public sector
securities
SMP (2010-2012) 5/
OMT ("contingent balance sheet policy")
Large-scale purchases of private sector
securities
ABSPP (June + Sep 2014)
CSPP (March 2016)
Large-scale purchases of public sector
securities
APP/PSPP (January 2015)
Expanded APP (March 2016)
D. Enhanced communication: 6/
Forward guidance (July 2013)
Commitment active use NSMs (April 2014)
Signal of balance sheet expansion (Nov. 2014)
Unconventional
instruments
"Market
support"
3/
A. Reverse lending operations ("Repos"): 1/
Refinancing operations
MPOs (Aug 2007 onward)
MROs at FRFA (Aug 2007 onward)
LTROs (3 months) at FRFA (Aug 2007
onward)
LTROs (6 months) at FRFA (March 2008
onward)
Supplementary LTROs at 1 year
Very long LTROs at 3 years (Nov 11 and Dec
12)
TLTROs (June 2014 and max maturity Sep.
2018)
TLTRO II: Targeted LTROs (June 2016-
March 2017)
B. Ad hoc non-standard operations:
Forex Repos and Swaps (2008-2009)
Various ad hoc fine-tunings as needed
C. Outright operations
Purchases of private sector securities
CBPP1 (July 2009) x
CBPP2 (November 2011) x
CBPP3 (Sep. 2014) x
Selective purchases of public sector
securities
SMP (2010-2012) 5/ x
OMT ("contingent balance sheet policy") x
Large-scale purchases of private sector
securities
ABSPP (June + Sep 2014) x
CSPP (March 2016) x
Large-scale purchases of public sector
securities
APP/PSPP (January 2015) x
Expanded APP (March 2016) x
D. Enhanced communication: 6/
Forward guidance (July 2013)
Commitment active use NSMs (April 2014)
Signal of balance sheet expansion (Nov. 2014)
"Quantitative
easing"
4/
A. Reverse lending operations ("Repos"): 1/
Refinancing operations
MPOs (Aug 2007 onward)
MROs at FRFA (Aug 2007 onward)
LTROs (3 months) at FRFA (Aug 2007
onward)
LTROs (6 months) at FRFA (March 2008
onward)
Supplementary LTROs at 1 year
Very long LTROs at 3 years (Nov 11 and Dec
12)
TLTROs (June 2014 and max maturity Sep.
2018)
TLTRO II: Targeted LTROs (June 2016-
March 2017)
B. Ad hoc non-standard operations:
Forex Repos and Swaps (2008-2009)
Various ad hoc fine-tunings as needed
C. Outright operations
Purchases of private sector securities
CBPP1 (July 2009)
CBPP2 (November 2011)
CBPP3 (Sep. 2014)
Selective purchases of public sector
securities
SMP (2010-2012) 5/
OMT ("contingent balance sheet policy")
Large-scale purchases of private sector
securities
ABSPP (June + Sep 2014) x
CSPP (March 2016) x
Large-scale purchases of public sector
securities
APP/PSPP (January 2015) x
Expanded APP (March 2016) x
D. Enhanced communication: 6/
Forward guidance (July 2013)
Commitment active use NSMs (April 2014)
Signal of balance sheet expansion (Nov. 2014)
FRFA stands for fixed rate full allotment
(1) These operations are complemented by several expansions of the
collateral list, a relaxation of eligibility criteria for
collateral, an extension of the list of counterparties and a
reduction of the minimum reserve requirement
(2) This refers to n-standard use of a conventional instruments:
e.g. by extending maturities to relieve bank funding stress
(3) The role of market functioning support is to help restore
impaired monetary transmission across the euro area
(4) Quantitative easing aims to provide further monetary stimulus
(5) The SMP has an impact on market liquidity and the size of the
balance sheet after suspension of sterilisation
(6) This communication is of a qualitative nature--the commitment
about the future path of policy rates is contingent on the outlook
for price stability
Table 2 Non-monetary EU policy responses to the
financial crisis. Source: authors' elaboration
Policy responses Date announced
I. Direct intervention
measures
1.1 Fiscal stimulus
European recovery plan 26th Nov 2008
An investment plan for Europe 26th Nov 2014
1.2 Rescue interventions
Capital injections From Aug 2008
Nationalisation of banks From Sep 2008
Creation of bad bank schemes
Debt guarantees From Sep 2008
1.3 Regulatory interventions
Short sales prohibitions From Sep-2008
2. Strengthening the
institutional framework
2.1 Coordination of financial
supervision
EBA, ESMA, EIOPA 18 th June 2009
ESRB 18th June 2009
SSM & SRM 12th Sept 2012
2.2 Financial back-up for
sovereign debt crisis
EFSM & EFSF 10th May 2010
ESM 25th March 2011
2.3 Governance reforms
"Six-Pack" From Dec 2011
Fiscal Compact Mar-12
"Two-Pack"
4/5-Presidents Report From Dec-2012
3. Regulatory Reforms
3.1 For a robust financial
framework
A single rulebook (CRR, DGS, 18th June 2009
BRRD,...)
3.2 Sovereign debt tensions
and restructurings
Ban on naked positions on 15th Sept 2010
sovereign CDS
Introduction of collective 1st Feb 2012
action clauses
3.3 Other regulatory reforms
Softening EU framework to 25th Oct 2008
assess state aid
Short sales regulation 2nd June 2010
Policy responses Purpose
I. Direct intervention
measures
1.1 Fiscal stimulus
European recovery plan Boost aggregate demand in
coordinated manner, support
confidence and reinforce long-term
competitiveness
An investment plan for Europe Strengthen competiveness and
stimulate investment for purpose of
job creation
1.2 Rescue interventions
Capital injections Address bank vulnerabilities and
avoid associated systemic risks
Nationalisation of banks As above
Creation of bad bank schemes As above
Debt guarantees As above
1.3 Regulatory interventions
Short sales prohibitions Avoid risk of negative share price
spirals that can lead to systemic
risk
2. Strengthening the
institutional framework
2.1 Coordination of financial
supervision
EBA, ESMA, EIOPA Upgrading the quality and
consistency of national supervision
and strengthening oversight of
cross-border groups
ESRB Monitor and assess potential
threats to financial stability
issuing risk warnings and
recommendations
SSM & SRM Restore confidence in banking
supervision, break doom-loop and
orderly resolution
2.2 Financial back-up for
sovereign debt crisis
EFSM & EFSF Provide financial assistance to
countries under financial stress
ESM As above, but permanent plus
mandatory CACs
2.3 Governance reforms
"Six-Pack" Including: reform SGP, requirements
for fiscal frameworks, and MIP
Fiscal Compact Provisions to guarantee prudent
fiscal behaviour
"Two-Pack" Strengthening coordination and
surveillance of budgetary processes
4/5-Presidents Report Roadmap towards more genuine EMU:
fiscal, financial, economic and
political union by 2025
3. Regulatory Reforms
3.1 For a robust financial
framework
A single rulebook (CRR, DGS, Promote sound financial regulation
BRRD, ...) and guarantee a level playing field
and an integrated single market for
financial services
3.2 Sovereign debt tensions
and restructurings
Ban on naked positions on Prevent market fragmentation and
sovereign CDS ensure smooth functioning of
sovereign debt markets
Introduction of collective Facilitate process of debt
action clauses restructuring when a government
faces the possibility of a default
3.3 Other regulatory reforms
Softening EU framework to Enhance soundness and stability of
assess state aid the banking sector
Short sales regulation Increase transparency on short
positions held by investors
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