INTEGRATED HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS: AN ASSESSMENT OF U.S. METHODS AND AN INNOVATION.
Samphantharak, Krislert ; Schuh, Scott ; Townsend, Robert M. 等
INTEGRATED HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS: AN ASSESSMENT OF U.S. METHODS AND AN INNOVATION.
I. INTRODUCTION
During recent decades, interest in the study of household finance
has grown rapidly. Campbell (2006) first advanced the case for treating
household finance as a distinct field of study in economics. The global
financial crisis of 2008-2009 strengthened that case due to the subprime
housing debacle in many industrial economies and its persistent impact
on household balance sheets. In particular, the extent and nature of
increased leverage and risk in household mortgages and their effects on
the real (housing industry) and financial (shadow banking) sectors of
the economy were not well known or understood prior to the crisis.
Consequently, there is now a focus on household decision making, how
households got into this trouble, what transpired in the crisis, and the
difficulties encountered thereafter. (1)
A hindrance to research and understanding of household economic
behavior (real and financial) has been the lack of sufficient data.
Relative to other countries, the United States has a large amount of
high-quality data on household economic behavior; these data will be
examined closely in this paper. Even the U.S. data, however, were
inadequate to inform economic agents and policymakers sufficiently to
avoid the financial crisis. Many efforts are underway to acquire and
develop additional needed data; these efforts include the
Eurosystem's Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS), which
was inspired partly by the U.S. Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). (2)
Other efforts, such as the National Academy of Science's call for a
substantially revised Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE), aim to reform
existing datasets (Dillman and House 2013).
The U.S. household survey data exhibit several characteristics that
limit their effectiveness. The U.S. statistical system (public and
private) is decentralized, with each data source specializing in a part
of household activity. Although there are often good reasons for
specialization, the result is a general lack of comprehensive
measurement of household activity. Many datasets are cross-sectional,
which limits their ability to track the behavior of specific households
over time, and are gathered infrequently. When data sources are combined
in an effort to provide a more comprehensive view of household behavior,
the combination of the specialized data sources can create imperfect, if
not misleading, views of household economic conditions, due to
differences in sampling, measurement, and linkages between microeconomic
and aggregate data. (3) These imperfections make it difficult to
ascertain from the data the extent and nature of important developments,
such as adjustments affecting household balance sheets in the wake of
financial crisis, increases in income inequality, and intergenerational
dynamics of household net worth.
Data on household behavior in other countries also exhibit
limitations, but there are signs of improvement in response to major
economic developments. Most notably, the financial crisis reaffirmed the
view that household finance is at the center of development economics
because financial access is thought to be one of the key factors that
could help poor and vulnerable households become more productive and
resilient in the face of economic shocks. In addition, there have been
payment innovations such as M-Pesa in Kenya, an electronic money issued
by a cell phone company, Safaricom, that in many respects is now on par
with currency there as a medium of exchange (Jack, Suri, and Townsend
2010). The often-expressed hope in developing economies is that a
deeper, more developed financial system can be built on top of such an
improved payments system, with some progress evident in countries such
as Pakistan. (4) These developments bring us back to the need for better
data on payments, household behavior, and a microfounded view of the
macroeconomy in developing countries. Fortunately, more countries are
producing data from household surveys that are doing a better job of
measuring these developments.
We believe an important step forward in understanding household
behavior is the development of more reliable and effective measures of
household economic activity, both real and financial. Therefore, an
overarching goal of this paper is to describe a comprehensive vision for
practical implementation of household surveys that are integrated with
financial statements and payments data, leaving no gaps in measurement
and strengthening the theoretical and applied linkages among measures.
The main contributions of this paper are: (1) to assess how well
integrated U.S. household surveys are with elements of financial
statements for households: and (2) to demonstrate how a diary of U.S.
consumer payment choices can be used to construct a new statement of
liquidity flows that advances the current state of the art in measuring
stock-flow dynamics and thus takes a step closer to realizing the
overarching vision of the paper.
Samphantharak and Townsend (2010, henceforth ST) describes the
baseline conceptual framework for the design of an integrated survey
that has been implemented in the field for almost 20 years and that
allows construction of a complete set of household financial statements
that is comprehensive and fully integrated. Essentially, ST create a set
of financial accounts akin to those of corporate firms: this set
comprises a balance sheet, income statement, and statement of cash flows
(CF). The concept is of a household with projects, that is, a collection
of assets that earn income from farm and nonfarm production activities.
This idea of assets earning income also extends to households engaged in
wage or salaried labor, meaning those that essentially generate income
from their human capital. A key element of this analysis is that all
aspects of household situations and behaviors are measured: income, in
order to measure the productivity of physical and human capital; assets
and liabilities, to measure wealth; and CF, to distinguish liquidity
from income and profitability. A key to this measurement is that the
accounts are required, by construction, to be consistent with one
another, thereby eliminating the possibility of gaps. Few surveys
feature this dynamic integration.
To illustrate how this works, and as a first step in the paper, we
use the ST framework to assess the degree of integration in leading U.S.
household surveys. For each survey considered, we tabulate and juxtapose
the data of each in the form of corporate financial statements applied
to the representative U.S. household. We first construct for each survey
a harmonized balance sheet, income statement, and statement of CF for a
recent time period that matches the survey dates--around 2012--as
closely as possible. To ensure maximum accuracy, we have invited
assistance from representatives associated with each survey; and to
encourage further refinement of this effort, we make our programs
available to interested researchers. Then, we use the estimated U.S.
household financial statements to characterize the degree of integration
by two distinct measures. Integration by coverage reflects the extent to
which a survey contains estimates of each line item in the financial
statements. All the surveys cover roughly half the income statement
items, although most specialize in income or expenditures. However, the
coverage of the balance-sheet items varies widely across surveys.
Integration by dynamics reflects the extent to which the statement of CF
accurately measures the law of motion between stocks (shown in the
balance sheet) and flows (shown in the income statement). None of the
surveys can provide truly direct statements of CF, and all of them make
large errors relative to indirect estimates of changes in assets and
liabilities.
Our assessment of integration in U.S. household surveys is merely a
factual statement of results and is not intended to be a criticism of
the surveys or a call for reforming them. We recognize and accept the
specialty nature of U.S. surveys, which has the benefit of allowing
gains from specialization and achievement of each survey's original
goals. For example, the Panel Study on Income Dynamics (PSID) was
originally designed to measure poverty and to contribute to its
reduction in conjunction with President Johnson's Great Society
programs; the CE was designed to gather data for developing accurate
price indices; and the SCF to measure wealth. Although some of these
surveys have evolved over the years, particularly the PSID, others
retain their original mandate. Yet, the specialization and persistence
of the U.S. surveys do leave gaps in measurement that can only be
overcome by comprehensive integration of the surveys with financial
statements. Ironically, because the PSID and SCF are so highly regarded,
they are adopted as the gold standard elsewhere in the world, for
example, in China and Europe, thus propagating essentially the same gaps
in these other surveys as in their U.S. counterparts.
A second step of this paper is to use the Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston's 2012 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (DCPC) to
demonstrate how consumer payment diary surveys can improve the dynamic
integration of surveys. (5) The DCPC directly measures several, but not
all, components of the law of motion governing the stock-flow
relationship between assets and liabilities (balance-sheet items) and
income and expenditures (income-statement items). Because the 2012 DCPC
is focused on consumer payments authorized by payment instruments (cash,
check, debit or credit card, online banking, and such), it focuses on
liquid assets used as payment instruments, including the currency held
and used by U.S. consumers. In this respect, the DCPC is similar to the
Townsend Thai Monthly Survey (TTMS), which underlies the ST methodology,
where currency is the main household asset and payment instrument in
rural Thailand. To provide a bridge to our key next step, we compare and
contrast the household financial statements constructed with TTMS with
those constructed with the DCPC.
The central innovation of this paper is the construction of a new,
more detailed analysis of CF at the level of liquid asset accounts,
where currency, checking accounts, and other liquid assets are
distinguished and treated separately. By tracking consumer expenditures
that are authorized by payment instruments tied to specific types of
liquid asset accounts, the DCPC matches expenditures to the sources of
money and credit that fund them. This matching cannot be done feasibly
by surveys that track consumer expenditures at the level of individual
products (the CE) or at the level of aggregated expenditure categories
("food away from home").
Linking all the liquidity accounts to one another and to the
expenditures (or investments) they fund makes it possible to better
assess the changing landscape of payments taking place in the United
States and industrialized countries as well as in emerging-market and
low-income countries. (6) This then links back to the need for data to
better inform public policy and to provide consumers with the
information they need to improve household decision making and economic
behavior. More informative financial accounts come from considering
payments, and vice versa: better payments data come from integrated
financial accounts. Development of household economic data from
dynamically integrated household surveys that include payment diaries
might be particularly beneficial for developing countries, where
household economic data are scarce, there are few preestablished surveys
with prior missions, and payment systems and financial industries are
changing rapidly. Of course, payments systems are also changing in the
United States. The 2015 DCPC took a small step toward integrating
payments and employing the ST framework, as described below. We provide
a framework and guidance for policymakers to implement this longer-run
vision.
The remainder of the paper proceeds as follows. Section II provides
an overview of the main U.S. household surveys. Section III reviews the
ST methodology and explains how it will be used in our analyses. Section
IV assesses the degrees of integration in U.S. household surveys, by
coverage and dynamics. Section V compares and contrasts the TTMS and
DCPC survey data. Section VI describes the innovation made possible by
the interaction of ST's methods with the DCPC. Section VII
concludes.
II. OVERVIEW OF U.S. HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
This section describes the main surveys included in this study,
which are used to collect data on U.S. household economic conditions
(henceforth, "household surveys"), plus the TTMS. Summary
descriptions of these surveys appear in Table 1 in order of chronology
based on continuous fielding. Five sponsors produce these U.S. surveys:
* University of Michigan, Institute for Social Research (ISIR)--The
Michigan ISIR sponsors two surveys. First, the biennial PSID, which is
"the longest running longitudinal household survey in the
world" and that includes data on wealth and expenditures as well as
other socioeconomic and health factors. (7) Second, the biennial
(even-numbered years) Health and Retirement Survey (HRS), which
"has been a leading source for information on the health and
well-being of adults over age 50 in the United States" for more
than 20 years; the HRS includes the biennial Consumption and Activities
Mail Survey (CAMS) for tracking household expenditures in
"off' years (odd-numbered). (8)
* U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)--The BLS sponsors the CE,
comprising "two surveys--the quarterly Interview Survey and the
Diary Survey--that provide information on the buying habits of American
consumers, including data on their expenditures, income, and consumer
unit (families and single consumers) characteristics." (9) "As
in the past, the regular revision of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
remains a primary reason for undertaking the Bureau's extensive CE.
Results of the CE are used to select new 'market baskets' of
goods and services for the index, to determine the relative importance
of components, and to derive cost weights for the market baskets."
* Federal Reserve Board--The Board sponsors the SCF, "normally
a triennial cross-sectional survey of U.S. families. The survey data
include information on families' balance sheets, pensions, income,
and demographic characteristics. Information is also included from
related surveys of pension providers and the earlier such surveys
conducted by the Federal Reserve Board." The SCF collects some
consumer expenditures directly. (10)
* U.S. Census Bureau--The Census Bureau sponsors the Survey of
Income and Program Participation (SIPP), "the premier source of
information for income and program participation. SIPP collects data and
measures change for many topics including: economic well-being, family
dynamics, education, assets, health insurance, childcare, and food
security." (11)
* Federal Reserve Bank of Boston--The Boston Fed's Consumer
Payments Research Center (CPRC) sponsors the annual Survey of Consumer
Payment Choice (SCPC) and the occasional DCPC, both of which measure
consumer adoption of payment instruments and deposit accounts and the
use of instruments. Originally, the SCPC and DCPC were not integrated
like the CE but were developed independently; they are now being
integrated. The SCPC collects only the number of payments, while the
DCPC also tracks the dollar values. Both provide data on cash and (in
later years) checking accounts plus revolving credit. The SCPC contains
very limited information about household balance sheets.
These surveys were selected because of their quality and breadth of
coverage of U.S. household financial conditions, including relatively
large numbers of detailed questions pertaining to the line items of
household financial statements (assets, liabilities, income, or
expenditures). None of the surveys contains all relevant financial
conditions because none was designed to do so. Thus, no single survey is
fully integrated with financial accounting statements and no single
survey alone can provide complete estimates of household financial
conditions. When combined, however, these U.S. household estimates come
closer than any single dataset available today to providing a
comprehensive assessment of U.S. household financial conditions. These
surveys were also chosen because, except for the HRS, they are
representative of U.S. consumers. (12) However, the surveys are
implemented with different samples of households (or consumers) and, in
some instances, substantively different survey questions, so their
estimates are not necessarily comparable.
We reiterate that each survey has its own particular purposes or
goals and that none is intended to provide a comprehensive, integrated
set of household financial conditions as described in ST. The CE, for
example, is primarily intended to produce data on a wide range of
consumption expenditures that aid in the construction of the CPI. In
contrast, the SCF primarily tracks details of assets and liabilities
plus income from all sources but does not track all consumer
expenditures. The PSID aims to estimate most income and expenditures but
also focuses on collecting data on social factors and health, a practice
that might be beneficial for every survey and data source. In any case,
the PSID's breadth limits the amount of detail it can obtain on
income and expenditures, so it does not obtain a comprehensive estimate
of balance-sheet items. For all of these reasons, the analysis in the
next section does not expect or presume to find an individual integrated
financial survey, nor does it recommend that any of these surveys change
what it is currently doing.
Table 1 summarizes the key characteristics of the selected U.S.
household surveys in terms of their basic features, survey
methodologies, and sampling methodologies. Surveys are listed in columns
in chronological order (left-to-right) based on their initial years of
continuous production. The oldest is the PSID, which dates back to the
1960s, while the newest, the SCPC and DCPC, are less than a decade old.
Most of the surveys are conducted relatively infrequently, ranging from
quarterly (the CE and SIPP) to triennially (the SCF). Although
implemented daily for 1 or 2 months, the official DCPC has been
implemented only three times in 5 years. The date of statistical
calculations refers to the period used to estimate the elements of the
household financial statements, as discussed later in the paper. The
rows of the table are grouped into sections related to the survey
methodology and the sampling methodology. For further comparison, the
table also shows corresponding information about the TTMS.
Survey methodologies vary widely across the surveys along several
dimensions. One obvious distinction is the mode: survey (PSID, CE-S,
SCF, HRS, SIPP, and SCPC) versus diary (CE-D and DCPC) or "diary
survey." This distinction is complicated by the fact that modes
also vary for each type of survey or diary, including paper surveys,
paper diaries (or memory aids), online surveys--with or without
assistance--and interviews; some surveys use mixed-mode strategies. A
key differentiating factor among surveys is whether they collect data
based on respondents' recall, where the recall period can vary in
length from a period of 1 week to 1 year, or based on respondents'
recording the data, where the recording period is typically 1 day.
Recall-based surveys are more susceptible to memory errors and
aggregation errors (over time and variable types). Some sponsors field
their own survey (Michigan ISIR), while others outsource to vendors
(e.g., the SCF uses NORC, formerly called the National Opinion Research
Center).
The sampling methodologies are relatively similar across surveys.
All surveys aim to provide estimates that are representative of some
U.S. population measure, except the HRS, which is limited to older
households. The main reporting unit varies across surveys from
individual consumers to entire households, with some surveys obtaining
information about the household from just one member--an important
choice that can significantly affect the results of the survey. The
surveys also differ in whether the samples are drawn as independent
cross sections or as longitudinal panels. The precision of survey
estimates varies widely because sample sizes range from 2,000 to 52,000
reporting units.
Estimates of economic and financial activity for consumers and
households are influenced heavily by at least two major types of
factors: (1) heterogeneity in the survey specifications, sampling
methodologies, and data collection methodologies; and (2) variation
across surveys in the content, scope, and nature of questions about real
and financial economic activity. Therefore, the reader should not expect
estimates of income, expenditures, or wealth from the surveys to
coincide. Instead, there might be large discrepancies in estimates of
these economic and financial activities even if the conceptual measures
are similar. Differences in target populations can naturally produce
large differences in economic and financial measures. But even more
subtle survey design differences, such as recall versus recording, can
produce large differences in the estimated measures. With regard to
survey content and questions, even minor differences in wording can
elicit differences in measured concepts between surveys. Similarly, the
level of aggregation--collecting data on just the total or on the sum of
the parts of the total (and then adding them up)--can have dramatic
effects on estimates of the total values across surveys.
III. THE ST FRAMEWORK
This section provides a brief overview of the ST (2010) framework
for defining and measuring the integration of household surveys with
corporate financial statements.
A. Conceptual Framework
There are three main financial statements in the ST "household
as corporate finance" framework. (13) The first statement is the
balance sheet or the statement of financial position, which reports all
assets and liabilities at a point in time. The difference between assets
and liabilities is net worth. In the terminology of corporate financial
accounts, net worth is the household's equity in the household
enterprise. The second financial statement is the income statement,
which measures flows of revenues and expenses as well as the disposition
of net profit into consumption and savings over a period of time.
Finally, the statement of CF measures money, cash, or other liquid
assets flowing into and out of the household as part of the payments
system. In practice, CF are simply the outflows of cash for the
acquisition of inputs of production, as well as for investment and
consumption expenditures, and the inflows from sales of product,
liquidation of assets, and financing.
The balance sheet is a stock report, while the income statement and
the statement of CF are flow reports. There is a close connection
between the balance sheet and the income statement through the
connection between stocks and flows, as summarized in Figure 1.
Specifically, profits from production or from salary and other income
can be saved or consumed. Consumption is analogous to paying out a
dividend to the owner. Positive savings show up as an increase in (real
or financial) assets and wealth, reflected in the balance sheet at the
end of the period. Likewise, negative savings show up as a decrease in
assets and wealth. Indeed, the change in wealth in the balance sheet
between two points in time is essentially net savings. (14)
Income in corporate financial statements is typically accrued
income, based on the idea that expenses of production are not subtracted
until revenues from sales resulting from that production are recognized.
(15) The essential idea behind this notion of accrued income is that one
wants to measure the ultimate return on a project in order to compare
that return to alternatives; that is, one wants to measure the
opportunity cost in order to see whether the project is warranted, in
order to answer the obvious question: do the economic activities the
household has adopted "make sense"? Essentially, accrued
income is supposed to measure productivity. However, since the accrual
basis of accounting does not necessarily recognize revenues or expenses
when cash flows in or out of the enterprise, it cannot give analysts a
full understanding of the enterprise's liquidity. For example, a
project may be productive with a reasonably high rate of return, but it
may become illiquid due to CF fluctuations and the household may even go
bankrupt. This example illustrates one of the reasons why the statement
of CF is needed to obtain a comprehensive understanding.
To summarize, the reconciled financial statements must exhibit the
following accounting identities: (1) in the balance sheet, the
household's total assets must be identical to its total liabilities
plus total wealth or net worth, (2) the increase in household wealth in
the balance sheet over the period must be identical to the
household's savings (adjusted for unilateral transfers); that is,
it must be identical to a household's net income from the income
statement minus consumption, and (3) the increase in the
household's cash holdings in the balance sheet must be identical to
the household's net cash inflow in the statement of CF, summing
over all sources. Both sides of every accounting identity are measured.
One benefit of imposing accounting identities is that we avoid the
common problem that a variable generated from one set of questionnaire
responses yields a different value when computed from an alternative set
of responses. For example, Kochar (2000) finds that household savings in
the Living Standard and Measurement Study (LSMS) surveys computed as
"household income minus consumption" is different from
household savings computed from "change in household assets."
This discrepancy could come from various problems in questionnaire
design. For example, some of the assets might be omitted from total
assets, some assets might be financed by liabilities rather than
savings, or income and savings might be defined inconsistently. Indeed,
as mentioned above, one can use these two different measures of savings,
which may differ as indicated, as a consistency check within a survey or
diary fielding, with follow-up questions in the case of discrepancies.
ST applied this vision of integrated surveys to the TTMS.
Transactions in the monthly data are like journal entries for an
accountant, allowing the analyst to create complete financial accounts.
As details of the transaction partners are also recorded, one can map
networks within the village and also geographic patterns. Figure 2
illustrates the procedure for creating a household's balance sheet,
income statement, and statement of CF from a panel household survey.
More information about the TTMS appears in Section V.
B. Details of the Statement of CF
Because the dynamic accounting of linkages between stocks and flows
is central to this paper, we provide a more detailed discussion of this
topic. The statement of CF provides an accounting of cash received and
cash paid during a particular period of time, thereby providing an
assessment of the operating, financing, and investing activities of the
firm (or household).
The first step in constructing a CF statement is to define the term
"cash." Despite the label, it is important to remember from
the outset that currency is typically only part of this. For advanced
industrial economies such as the United States, standard corporate
financial statements tend to focus CF on the concept of "cash and
cash equivalents" (CCE):
* Cash--Currency (coins, notes, and bills) (16) and liquid deposits
at banks and other financial institutions, including demand deposits,
other checkable deposits, and savings accounts. This measure is similar
to the broad measure of money known as M2. (17)
* Cash equivalents--Short-term investments with a maturity of 3
months or less that can be converted into cash quickly, easily, and
inexpensively (high liquidity and low risk). None of the surveys
identify cash equivalents separately from similar investments of longer
maturity. Examples include 3-month Treasury bills versus 1-year Treasury
bonds and 3-month versus 6-month certificates of deposit. (18)
The assessment of U.S. surveys will focus on CCE for the statement
of CF. For the TTMS and DCPC, however, the statement of CF will focus
only on currency because Thai households transact primarily in currency
(Thai baht) and the 2012 DCPC is a payment diary that does not track the
entire balance sheet and has only one liquid asset (currency in U.S.
dollars, which is a payment instrument). (19) Most U.S. surveys do not
collect data on currency, which is a relatively small portion of
liquidity for most U.S. households, and only the SCPC and DCPC do so
comprehensively.
Once cash is defined, CF for that defined concept (CCE) can be
calculated to account for the operating, investing, and financing
activities of the firm (or household). (20) In particular, the statement
of CF includes three main parts:
* CF from production (or operating activities)--These are net CF
from operating activities of the firm (or household). The direct method
shows cash inflows from operations and cash payments for expenses, by
major classes of revenue and expense. Equivalently, the indirect method
converts net income from an accrual basis to a cash basis, using changes
in balance-sheet items.
* CF from investing activities (consumption and investment)--These
are net CF from investing activities of the firm (or household). Cash
outflows are primarily for investment in capital and for the purchase of
securities that are not CCE. Cash inflows are the converse, including
sales of capital and non-CCE securities. Individual items are listed in
gross amounts (inflows minus outflows), by activity. As applied to the
household, these are consumption expenditures (on nondurable goods and
services) and capital expenditures (on durable goods).
* CF from financing--These are net CF from transactions considered
to be the financing activity of the firm (or household). Cash inflows
occur when resources are obtained from owners or investors, such as by
issuance of equity or debt securities. Cash outflows are the converse,
in the form of payment to owners and investors or to creditors. As with
CF from investing, individual items are listed in gross amounts.
Another type of transaction sometimes associated with the statement
of CF is direct exchange, which occurs when noncash (not CCE) assets or
liabilities are traded without implications for cash. Often these
exchanges are difficult to classify as either investing or financing
activity because they may have elements of both. For that reason,
accountants do not agree on whether to include direct exchanges in the
statement of CF or to report them in a separate statement. For this
paper, we do not include them in the statement of CF.
In theory, the statement of CF provides an exact linkage between
flows in the income statement and changes in stocks on the balance
sheet. To verify this, the statement of CF compares measured CF with the
measured changes in assets and liabilities from the balance sheet. Total
CF is simply the sum of component flows,
[CF.sub.t] = [CF.sup.p.sub.t] + [CF.sup.v.sub.t] +
[CF.sup.f.sub.t],
where superscript p denotes production (operating activity), v
denotes investing activity, and f denotes financing activity. If all
financial-statement items are measured accurately and constructed
comprehensively, this estimate from the statement of CF should exactly
match the change in the stock of cash from the balance sheet,
[CF.sub.t] = [DELTA][A.sup.C.sub.t] = [A.sup.C.sub.t] -
[A.sup.C.sub.t-1],
where [A.sup.C.sub.t] denotes the asset value (end-of-period t) of
CCE (superscript C). If these CF identities were to hold exactly using
data from a survey, then that survey would be fully dynamically
integrated with financial statements. In practice, however, measurement
of financial-statement items is neither exact (due to measurement error)
nor comprehensive in actual surveys (due to failure to include all
items), so we expect to observe errors in the CF identities above (i.e.,
we expect to see less-than-full dynamic integration). One logical
measure of the degree to which survey estimates are integrated across
time (dynamically) is
CF error = 100 x [[CF.sub.t] -
[DELTA][A.sup.C.sub.t]/[A.sup.C.sub.t-1]]
which is expressed as a percentage of lagged cash. Smaller CF
errors (in absolute value) are interpreted as indicating better dynamic
integration of a survey. (21)
This analytical linkage between CF (also on the income statement if
the cash basis rather than the accrual basis is used) and the stock of
cash (balance-sheet items) can be disaggregated into the linkages
between individual liquid assets (stocks) in CCE and the gross flows
among them. Henceforth, our language assumes the cash basis is used, but
our analysis remains valid for the accrual basis, since the real
difference between the cash and accrual bases is only the labeling of
the transaction; for example, goods sold create an account receivable
that is not necessarily cash and does not appear on the statement of CF
if the latter does not recognize accounts receivable as CCE.
Nevertheless, the sale would be recognized as creating an increase in an
asset (an accounts receivable item).
To see the point about disaggregation, let [A.sup.C.sub.kt] denote
the end-of-period dollar value of a liquid asset in CCE from the balance
sheet, where subscript k denotes the account/type of liquid asset
(currency, demand deposits, and such) and subscript t denotes the
discrete time period (such as month, quarter, or year). Liabilities,
[L.sub.kt], are defined analogously and primarily represent various
types of loans; in principle, liabilities can be viewed as
negative-valued assets. (22)
Let [D.sub.kdt] denote the dollar value of deposits into account k
on day d (nearly continuous), and Wkdl the analogous withdrawals. (23)
Gross CF in period t are the sums across all daily flows into and out of
an asset type:
[mathematical expression not reproducible]
Asset deposits include primarily income of all types (including any
capital gains and losses from holding CCE), transfers of another type of
asset (or liability) into the account, or unilateral gifts received.
Asset withdrawals include primarily payments for goods and services
(consumption expenditures or capital goods investment), transfers to
another type of asset, or unilateral gifts given. Again, liability flows
are defined analogously.
Individual assets are governed by the following law of motion
between periods t - 1 and t:
[A.sup.C.sub.kt] = [A.sup.C.sub.k,t-1] + [D.sub.kt] - [W.sub.kt]
[DELTA][A.sup.C.sub.kt] = [D.sub.kt] - [W.sub.kt].
Individual liabilities are governed by an analogous law of motion
where the liability "return" is primarily interest paid.
Finally, the disaggregated CF for each CCE type of asset include
some that net to zero when aggregated across all account k accounts. For
example, if a consumer withdraws $100 in currency (k = 1) from a
checking account (k = 2), then [D.sub.1dt] = [W.sub.2dt]. For this
reason, it is informative to track the flows among types of asset (and
liability) accounts when analyzing the CF behavior of households. For
some types of asset accounts, such as a checking account, withdrawals
can be made with multiple payment instruments, such as checks, debit
cards, and various electronic bank account payments. Thus, the gross
flows between accounts can be further disaggregated by the type of
payment instrument used to authorize the flow. (24)
IV. ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATION IN U.S. HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
This section evaluates the content and structure of the main U.S.
household surveys, excluding the SCPC and DCPC, which are not designed
to be general surveys of household finance, in relation to corporate
financial statements. As noted earlier, no U.S. survey is fully
integrated with financial statements in a manner consistent with the ST
framework. However, all of the U.S. surveys contain questions that
provide estimates of many of the relevant stocks and flows in financial
statements. Therefore, the ST framework can be used to organize the
survey data into estimates of a representative (average) U.S.
household's financial statements: a balance sheet, income
statement, and statement of CF. The remainder of this section presents
those estimates for each survey and analyzes the results.
The tables in this section report estimates of U.S. financial
statements from the surveys. Each statement contains nominal
dollar-value estimates for the line-item elements from each survey,
aggregated to the U.S. average per household, with the sampling weights
provided by the survey programs. (25) Selected aggregate measures are
supplemented with medians. The line items (rows) of each financial
statement reflect our best effort to combine survey concepts into
reasonably homogeneous measures. (26) Where necessary and feasible, some
survey concepts fall into the "other" categories; tables are
footnoted extensively to clarify these details. To the extent possible,
all economic concepts from each survey are included in the statements.
However, the question wording and concept definitions can vary
significantly across surveys, so detailed estimates fall short of
perfect harmonization. To ensure proper handling, we have provided our
preliminary results and software programs to managers or principal
investigators of each survey and offered them the opportunity to
evaluate and correct our analysis. (27)
Juxtaposing estimates of the financial statements for each survey
provides two benefits. First, and independently of the ST methodology,
the financial statements provide valuable information about the relative
magnitudes of real and financial economic conditions estimated by each
survey. Differences between survey estimates can be large in absolute
and relative terms because of the absence of perfect harmonization, as
noted above. The aggregate estimates may also diverge due to significant
differences in survey or sampling methodologies, described in Section
II, or due to differences in the coverage of statement line items,
described below. In any case, the comparison of estimates reveals the
relative strengths and weaknesses of each survey in measuring household
economic conditions.
Second, juxtaposing the estimates facilitates an easy and
quantitative assessment of how well each survey's questions
integrate with the elements of the household financial statements. The
degree of integration can be evaluated by at least two standards: (1)
the coverage of items in the statements; and (2) the dynamic interaction
between stock and flow concepts. With regard to coverage, we can further
quantify two types of coverage: (1) the percentage of detailed line
items estimated by the survey; and (2) the aggregate dollar values of
the estimates. As an example of the first of these coverage measures,
suppose that a balance-sheet concept had ten detailed items and one
survey estimated eight of them while another estimated only two of them.
Then, the first survey has broader coverage (80% vs. 20%). However,
line-item coverage is not necessarily an accurate indicator of value
coverage. If a survey had two estimates of the ten balance-sheet items,
and if each one were an estimate of the aggregate of five of the
detailed items (e.g., short-term assets and long-term assets), then the
survey might produce a very high percentage of the total value of assets
even though it did not include an estimate of each of the ten items.
Still, estimating the aggregate value of five items without estimating
each individual item is prone to producing biased estimates due to the
adverse effects of recall and reporting errors. The juxtaposed estimates
reveal the extent to which this kind of aggregation effect appears in
the survey estimates.
A. Balance Sheets and Income Statements
Balance sheets constructed from the U.S. surveys appear in Table 2
(A [assets] and B [liabilities]). The asset and liability estimates are
reported as current market values to the best of our ability, although
it is not always possible to be certain of the type of valuation
reported by respondents. Assets are divided into financial and
nonfinancial categories, with financial assets further divided into
highly liquid current assets (short-term) and assets with other terms
and liquidity (long-term). For financial assets, surveys usually obtain
market values explicitly or by assumption; where they distinguish
between face value and market value (e.g., for a U.S. government saving
bond) the latter is reported. For nonfinancial assets, the valuation
issue is almost the same, except the potential distinction is between
market value and book value. (28) For housing assets, the surveys
generally ask for the current (market) value of homes, but we cannot be
sure they do not report the purchase price, which is a book value. For
business assets, all surveys ask for a current (market) value, although
the form of the question varies and may use analogous terms (e.g.,
"sale price"). Liabilities are the current outstanding
balances for debt, not the original loan amounts. Liabilities are
divided into categories of revolving debt, characterized by an
indefinite option to roll over the liability, and nonrevolving debt.
Because the maturity of debt is generally not known from the surveys and
the term varies by debt contract within a category, the nonhousing debt
categories are listed in rough order of liquidity from most to least
liquid.
All the surveys report an estimate of total assets in Table 2A. The
U.S. households own average assets worth as much as $632,246, according
to the SCF, less half that amount, $226,314, in the CE survey. The HRS
estimate of $556, 295 is close to the SCF estimate, despite being
limited to older consumers. The breakdown of asset types is similar for
all the surveys. Financial assets generally account for less than half
of asset values, 29%-41%, despite variation in the number and type of
detailed asset categories. Tangible (physical) assets represent the
majority of asset values. Within financial assets, cash accounts for
roughly $30,000 for all but the SIPP, where it accounts for roughly
$12,000, and most is held in bank accounts. Only the SCF contains an
estimate of currency, but even that is not a direct estimate of actual
currency holdings of the household. (29) Overall, estimates of
balance-sheet assets are relatively comprehensive for all surveys, as
shown by their similar aggregate values and by the breadth of coverage
across detailed asset categories. The SCF is the most comprehensive,
with asset estimates in every category except short-term assets other
than bank accounts (checking and saving); the PSID, HRS, and SIPP are
almost as comprehensive as the SCF. The CE is much less comprehensive
and has considerably lower asset values.
All the surveys also report an estimate of total liabilities. The
U.S. households have average liabilities ranging across the surveys
between $61,979 and $ 112, 306, much lower than the value of total
assets and exhibiting less variation than across surveys. Housing debt
is by far the largest portion of liabilities, ranging from $58,143 to
$87,228 in all surveys where it is reported. The HRS asks specifically
only about housing-related debt, with a catch-all question for other
loans. The SIPP does not permit an exact estimate for housing-related
debt, but the "other loans" category most likely includes some
housing-related debt. While estimates of balance-sheet liabilities are
somewhat comprehensive for most surveys, they are not as comprehensive
as the estimates of assets. The aggregate values vary less and there is
less line-item coverage across detailed categories of liabilities. Once
again, the SCF is the most comprehensive, with liability estimates in
nearly every category. The PSID is almost as comprehensive as the SCF.
The other surveys are less comprehensive, although in different ways.
Given the estimates of total assets and total liabilities, household net
worth ranges from $152,646 in the CE to $519,940 in the SCF.
Income statements constructed from the U.S. surveys appear in Table
3. Income is divided into two main categories: compensation of employees
(the most common source of U.S. household income) and other income. The
latter includes income from all types of businesses owned and operated
by households. Expenditures also are divided into two main categories:
production costs and taxes. As explained above, the production costs of
households are expenditures associated with businesses operated directly
by a U.S. household; these businesses include sole proprietorships,
partnerships, and certain Limited Liability Corporations (LLC). (30)
Unlike TTMS, where most households operate a business (typically
agricultural), only a minority of U.S. households have a business. (31)
For the minority of U.S. households with a business, it would be natural
to apply corporate financial accounting to income (revenues) and
expenses, as in ST. However, none of the surveys provide sufficient
information about household business activity, so we use the simpler
approximation of revenues as "income" to accommodate the
majority of U.S. households without a business. Furthermore, all
income-statement estimates are reported on a cash basis of accounting,
so revenues and expenses are reported for the period when the cash is
received (income) or paid out (expenditures), because this method is the
primary way data are collected in the U.S. surveys.
All of the surveys report an estimate of total income (revenues).
The U.S. households received average total income of $61,431 to $83,863
per year. Estimates of labor income are even more similar across
surveys, ranging only between $42,377 and $53,623, essentially all of
which is wages and salaries. Estimates of other income types vary more,
ranging between $9,816 and $37,402, but account for less than
one-quarter of total income, except for the HRS estimates, which
represent 45% of total income. Overall, income estimates are the most
comprehensive and consistent portion of the household financial
statements across surveys, most likely because employment compensation
is widespread among U.S. households and the data are relatively easy to
collect. Estimates of income other than employment compensation are less
uniform across the surveys due to the unavailability of some detailed
line-item categories.
Although three surveys (the PSID, CES, and SCF) have estimates of
business income, none of them provide much information about household
business expenditures. They ask few, if any, questions about household
business activity (aside from the mere existence of a home business). No
survey has an estimate of production costs for household businesses.
Only three surveys with business income have estimates of taxes (these
estimates average less than $5,000 per household), and only the CE
reports employment taxes. Tax expenditures are those paid directly by
households and do not include taxes deducted by employers or paid by
third parties on behalf of households.
Given their estimates of total income and total expenditures, all
of the surveys provide estimates of net income (income less
expenditures), which range from $60,971 (CE) to $81,856 (SCF), as shown
at the bottom of Table 3. The HRS does not collect expenses, so its net
income equals total income. Net income is similar to income in the other
surveys because expenditures are relatively small (taxes only).
Household net income is treated as retained earnings that are
distributed to household members for consumption and investment
expenditures, which are recorded in the statement of CF (described
below).
B. Quantifying Integration by Coverage
We wish to characterize the degree to which surveys are integrated
with household financial statements in terms of coverage. We propose to
develop the criteria for measuring this kind of integration by
quantifying the extent to which a particular household financial survey
covers (includes) the breadth of the line items in standard balance
sheets and income statements. There are at least two dimensions along
which integration by item coverage could be measured using the estimates
from the preceding subsection. One is the fraction of detailed line
items for which a survey provides estimates ("line-item
coverage"). Another is the fraction of the total dollar value of
all line items estimated by a survey ("value coverage"). The
two measures are independent and not necessarily highly correlated. A
survey could cover most items in the financial statements but
underestimate them significantly; likewise, a survey might cover only a
small number of items but obtain very high-value estimates if the items
covered include mainly the highest-valued items. The latter situation
may occur when a survey only collects data on two aggregate
subcategories (such as short-term and long-term assets) but collects
none on the detailed line items within each subcategory.
We construct the measure of line-item coverage as follows. We
define the range of each financial statement as the number of the most
detailed line items (rows) from the tables earlier in this section.
Then, we count the number of line items (rows) for which each survey
provides a dollar-value estimate. The coverage estimate of integration
is the proportion of line items estimated relative to the total number
of line items. We call this the "item-coverage ratio," and we
construct two separate ratios, one for the balance sheet and one for the
income statement. This measure reflects only the extensive margin of
coverage because it does not account for the magnitude of the dollar
values in each line item; thus, it may not give a complete reflection of
coverage for total assets, liabilities, income, or expenditures.
We construct the measure of value coverage analogously, as follows.
We use the nominal dollar values for each individual line item in the
statements to construct the aggregate total values (sum of all
individual items) for each statement and divide the aggregate value by
the best available per-household estimate of the relevant metric for the
U.S. population. For the balance sheet, we use total assets and total
liabilities from the Flow of Funds accounts as the denominator. For the
income statement, we use personal income from the National Income and
Product Accounts (NIPA). The "value-coverage ratio" represents
survey coverage of the intensive margin of coverage. The difference
between the two types of ratios reflects the extent to which a
survey's coverage of financial statements is more integrated in its
intensive or extensive coverage of financial statements. To the extent
that one wishes to construct accurate estimates of aggregate U.S.
household financial conditions, the dollar-value ratio may be more
important.
Figure 3 provides scatter plots of the item-coverage ratio
(diamonds) and value-coverage ratio (squares) for the balance sheet and
income statement. The feasible range of both ratios is [0, 1], with the
upper end indicating that a survey has estimates of every single item in
the corresponding financial statement. Recall that the ratios are
independent and may not be highly correlated. Thus, the item-coverage
ratio does not necessarily reflect how well a survey produces aggregate
estimates of the data, and the value-coverage ratio does not necessarily
reflect how well a survey covers the number of line items in the
financial statements. Also, we make one important adjustment to the
income statement ratios to adjust for the application to households. As
shown in the next subsection, household consumption and durable goods
investment are listed in the statement of CF rather than the income
statement. However, for the purpose of quantifying the overall coverage
of household income and total household expenditures, both
business-related expenditures and household consumption or investment
expenditures, we include all types of expenditures in constructing the
coverage ratios for the income statements.
None of the U.S. surveys are completely integrated (ratio of 1.0)
with aggregate financial conditions for either statement, as can be seen
from Figure 3. In fact, no survey has either type of coverage ratio that
is greater than 0.6 for both financial statements. However, four of the
five balance-sheet ratios are greater than 0.5 (except CE) and four of
the five income-statement ratios are about 0.5 (except SIPP). The key
differences across surveys occur in both types of coverage ratios for
the balance sheets. The SCF has nearly complete value coverage of the
balance sheet (above 0.9 by value) and the HRS has a value ratio about
0.8 (by value). Most surveys have item-coverage ratios of about half of
the balance-sheet line items except the SCF, which covers the vast
majority of line items. Variation across surveys is less in the
item-coverage ratios for income statements.
C. Quantifying Integration by Dynamics
We also wish to characterize the degree to which surveys are
integrated with household financial statements in terms of dynamics. Our
proposed criterion for measuring this kind of integration is a
quantification of the extent to which the estimated stock-flow identity
holds in the survey estimates of household financial statements. The
statement of CF is well suited to quantifying this measure of
integration because it provides the linkage between the income statement
(flows of income and expenditures) and changes in the balance sheet
(stocks of assets and liabilities), assuming all stocks and flows are
measured exactly and comprehensively. As explained in Section III,
however, the CF error that arises in practice quantifies how well the
balance sheet and income statement are integrated over time. CF errors
represent consequences of incomplete item coverage of financial
statements, as well as various forms of mismeasurement of the items in
the financial statements.
Table 4 reports estimates of the statements of CF for each survey.
Starting with net income (from the income statement), the estimated
change in CF is the sum of three types of CF: from production, from
consumption and investment, and from financing. To construct these
statements, we have to estimate the elements of the CF from financing
using estimated changes in the relevant assets and liabilities from the
prior-period balance sheet. This methodology produces a CF estimate that
is a residual difference between net income and net CF, rather than a
direct measure of the gross CF in and out of the balance sheet, because
the latter are not available from the U.S. surveys. For comparison, we
estimate the change in cash holdings directly from the current and
prior-period balance sheets. (32)
The degree of dynamic integration is defined as the difference
(error) between the estimated CF variables and the change in cash
holdings estimated from the current and prior period balance sheets,
expressed in dollar terms and as a percentage of the lagged stock of
cash. We call this the "internal" CF error because it is
calculated using only the survey's estimates of stocks and flows.
However, cash holdings from any particular survey may differ from the
actual aggregate U.S. estimate of cash holdings (from the Flow of
Funds), so these errors may not accurately represent the true degree of
integration. Therefore, we also include the change in household cash
holdings from the Flow of Funds (same for each survey) and construct
errors in the survey CF estimates relative to the actual Flow of Funds
cash to give a better measure of dynamic integration. We call this the
"external" CF error.
As measured by their ability to track stock-flow identities in the
statements of CF, the U.S. surveys exhibit relatively weak dynamic
integration, and the degree of integration varies widely across surveys.
The absolute value of the internal CF error ranges from $6,290 (CE) to
$47,404 (SCF). Note that these errors are just one estimate in a time
series of errors that could be estimated, and other errors might be
smaller in absolute value during other periods. However, the sheer
magnitude of these internal errors suggests significant gaps in tracking
household financial conditions over time, even within the self-contained
estimates of a particular survey. (33) The CF errors are reported in
percentage terms relative to the two benchmarks: (1) the lagged cash
stock from the survey's balance sheet (internal error); and (2) the
lagged cash stock from the Flow of Funds aggregate benchmark data
(external error). The internal errors are relatively large, ranging from
about 13% to 37% of lagged cash (CE and SCF, respectively). The survey
estimates of CF are generally less than the external benchmark: all but
one of the external CF errors are even larger in absolute value, ranging
from about 8% to 61% of lagged cash.
V. THE TTMS AND DCPC
Moving beyond the U.S. household surveys, we now focus on two other
surveys that offer improved integration with financial statements and
reflect better measurement of certain aspects of household economic
conditions. The TTMS and DCPC are quite different in most regards. The
TTMS is a comprehensive survey of household economic conditions,
including home businesses; it is administered to Thai households, which
are relatively low-income, less-developed, and located in rural
geographic regions. In contrast, the DCPC is a relatively narrow
consumer survey that is administered to U.S. consumers and is focused on
payment choices. Nevertheless, the TTMS and DCPC both embody certain
elements of improved integration with financial statements. The TTMS is
heavily focused on the most basic and liquid M1 portions of
"cash" (or current assets). The DCPC includes currency and is
unique in this respect among the U.S. surveys that we analyze here. The
DCPC also features other means of payment, for example, payments that
use deposit accounts, although it does not track the level of these
deposits.
This section compares and contrasts the TTMS and DCPC surveys.
First, we present estimated balance sheets and income statements for
each survey and discuss their degrees of integration by item coverage.
Next, for each survey, we describe the methodology for measuring CF.
Finally, we assess its degree of integration by dynamics, emphasizing
its relatively high integration compared with the U.S. surveys. For this
section, we combine survey responses from the DCPC with responses from
the SCPC because both surveys are needed to estimate the financial
statements as thoroughly as possible. For simplicity, we refer to the
combined DCPC and SCPC estimates as "CPC."
A. Balance Sheets and Income Statements
Balance sheets and income statements constructed from the TTMS and
CPC surveys appear in Tables 5 and 6, respectively. These statements are
designed and organized similarly to the analogous statements from the
U.S. surveys, with a few exceptions. In these tables, the TTMS and CPC
data represent exactly the same time period (October 2012), and the TTMS
estimates have been converted to U.S. dollars using the Thai baht
exchange rate for October 2012. Unlike the U.S. survey entries, the
entries are not annualized because both the TTMS and the DCPC are
designed to be monthly surveys.
In general, the TTMS and CPC financial statements are not really
comparable due to the relative magnitudes of their respective economies.
The average asset value (Table 5) for TTMS households includes several
types of business assets, and is $89,082, and the average asset value
for CPC households is $301,425; this measure does not include any
business assets. This difference is magnified by the fact that the CPC
estimate is well below the highest estimate in the U.S. surveys (Table
2A) because it does not include any current assets beyond currency and
approximates tangible assets only roughly. The average liability value
is only $5,317 for TTMS households but, at $120,689, is more than 20
times larger for the CPC because there are relatively few borrowing
options for Thai households. The disparity between the Thai and U.S.
economies is even more evident from the income statements, shown in
Table 6, where the average CPC household income is roughly three and
one-half times larger than the average TTMS household income ($5,921 vs.
$1,643), and nearly five times larger net of expenditures ($4,081 vs.
$830).
One similarity between the TTMS and CPC financial statements is the
predominance of currency among current asset holdings. The average TTMS
household is estimated to have $30,874 in currency and less than $5,000
in other current assets (mostly bank accounts). The average CPC
household has $836 in currency, which is the only type of current asset
data collected. Although currency holdings are much lower in U.S.
households than in Thai households, the other U.S. surveys (except the
SIPP) estimate bank account holdings of about the same magnitude as Thai
cash holdings, which are roughly $30,000, as shown in Table 2A. The
improved 2015-2016 CPC also contains bank account balances (see below).
The accuracy of the data on currency holding in Thai households could be
improved, and we come back to this later.
In addition to differences in their respective economies, the TTMS
and CPC survey instruments are sufficiently different to inhibit
meaningful comparisons. The TTMS aims to collect data on all aspects of
Thai household economic behavior, an aim that produces extensive
estimates of the line items in the financial statements despite lower
economic development. In contrast, the CPC strives to measure payments
activity comprehensively and does not aim to cover financial-statement
line items widely. For these reasons, comparisons of line-item coverage
ratios between these surveys are not meaningful, nor are comparisons
with the U.S. surveys.
B. Measuring Cash (Currency) Flows
TTMS Survey Instruments. ST apply this household financial
accounting framework to households in the TTMS and create the accounts
from a baseline 1998 comprehensive survey and then month-by-month
interviews, currently up to month 205 and counting: that is, they have
17 years of monthly data. There was an initial enumeration of all
structures and all households living in a village (or in an urban
neighborhood), a census including who is eating and sleeping in what
structure, and a description of family relationships across the
individuals in these structures. The initial survey was an extensive
baseline, measuring not only initial assets and liabilities, but also
contracts and relationships, for example, borrowing and labor
arrangements. There are month-by-month follow-up interviews with
separate modules for assets and liabilities and for revenues and
expenses of various production activities. Every transaction is measured
in principle, subject to recall, for example, recall of purchases,
sales, gifts, and labor supply. A key to implementing this large survey
is the creation of rosters, lists of individuals in the household, debts
not yet repaid, plots of land under cultivation, and so on, so that
enumerators know which questions to ask.
The TTMS asks households for every transaction, such as a purchase,
whether it was done in cash (currency), in kind, or as a gift. Again,
the period of recall in the survey is the previous month (more exactly,
the time since the last interview, which is roughly 30 days).
Interviewers do not observe or ask about initial levels of cash holding,
but they do try to measure these flows by assuming that the initial cash
holding at the beginning of the survey was high enough so that
households never run out of cash; that is, cash levels can go to zero
but are never negative. Cash holding does hit the zero bound when
households purchase a durable or investment good with cash, which is
reassuring.
In contrast with this finding, ST infer that on average households
hold relatively large cash positions. This leads to two related
concerns. First, consumption expenditures in cash may be underestimated.
In this case, double-entry bookkeeping hits with a vengeance in the
sense that there could be two errors: an underestimate of cash
consumption and an overestimate of cash on the balance sheet. Second,
households may choose to underreport deposits into and withdrawals from
savings accounts, although they typically do confirm many transactions,
large and small. In this case, two items on the balance sheet, although
offsetting, may be mismeasured.
In addition, because currency is not only a means of payment but
also a store of value, it constitutes a relatively large portion of a
household's wealth, on average. Therefore, households are
understandably reluctant to report to enumerators how much currency they
are holding. A second problem is the frequency of interviews, hence
30-day periods of recall. One potential remedy would have been to have
households keep diaries of daily transactions for the entire month, or
to use intensive diaries for shorter time intervals per respondent (as
the DCPC does) to obtain a measure of aggregate activity. Initial
attempts to implement a diary in real time at the request of the
households themselves show great promise in dealing with this second
problem. We may not know the initial balance (still hidden), but the
changes in balances due to better-measured monthly transactions are more
accurate. This is a step toward the degree of accuracy of the CPC
surveys described below.
At the time of the conception and initiation of the TTMS in 1997,
the use of payment devices other than cash was rare in these rural
areas. Over time, there has been an increase in card dissemination and
small levels of use. The TTMS was modified to incorporate cards into the
survey, but measurement has been difficult due to many complex issues,
including question design, accounting methods, tracking card payments,
reconciling end-of-month statements, separating interest from principal,
rolling over debt, and so on. The remainder of the paper describes the
Boston Fed's DCPC, an approach that might have improved the TTMS,
and then shows how the integrated financial accounts can be extended
with the DCPC data to include multiple means of payment.
CPC Survey Instruments. The 2012 SCPC and 2012 DCPC are related but
independent instruments that were implemented around October 2012 with a
common sample of respondents from the RAND Corporation's American
Life Panel (ALP). The SCPC is an approximately 30minute online
questionnaire that collects data on consumer adoption and use of bank
accounts and payment instruments. The DCPC is a 3-day mixed-mode survey
with daily recording of payments in a paper memory aid (or other form)
plus three daily online questionnaires to input memory-aid data plus
answer additional questions based on recall within the day. In 2012,
most respondents took the SCPC before their randomly assigned 3-day
period during October, but some respondents completed the SCPC after the
DCPC. The order did not affect survey responses because the instruments
are independent.
Cash holdings (stock) data are collected by the SCPC and DCPC,
which are related but distinctly different types of survey instruments,
as described in Section II. The SCPC obtains estimates of cash held by
respondents on their person ("pocket, purse, or wallet") or on
their property (home, car, or elsewhere). (34) The 2012 DCPC obtained
estimates of currency (no coins) held by respondents on their person on
each of the four nights of the diary, asking the respondent to report
amounts by denomination of the bills ($1, $2, $5, $ 10, $20, $50, and $
100) and in total (summed for them in the online questionnaire). (35) In
October 2012, U.S. holdings of currency on person were on average $56
per person with a median value of $22.
CF--deposits and withdrawals (payments)--are collected by the SCPC
and DCPC as well. With regard to cash withdrawals made for expenditures
(payments), the SCPC obtains estimates of the number of cash payments
"in a typical period [week, month, year]," whereas the DCPC
more precisely obtains estimates of the number and value of each cash
payment (expenditure) made during a 3-day period. Both the SCPC and the
DCPC collect data on the number and value of cash withdrawals from bank
accounts and other sources. However, because cash withdrawals are
relatively rare for most consumers, the DCPC does not obtain estimates
that are as comprehensive for individual consumers as does the SCPC,
which asks for "typical" currency withdrawals during a longer
time period than 3 days. Only the DCPC tracks currency deposits to bank
accounts and other sources plus other unusual currency activity
(conversion of currency to/from other assets, exchanging coins for
bills, and such).
Two additional differences between the SCPC and DCPC have important
implications for their cash data. First, while both surveys ask
respondents to record their cash holdings at the time of the survey, the
SCPC allows respondents to estimate their holdings, while the DCPC
requires respondents to count their cash on person (bills only, no
coins) by reporting the number of bills of each denomination, and the
online DCPC questionnaire assists respondents in summing the value of
their cash holdings. As a result, the SCPC cash holdings data exhibit
more rounding (to the nearest $5, $10, or $20) and approximation than
the DCPC data. Second, the SCPC collects data on cash payments based on
respondents' recall of their typical behavior, while the DCPC
collects data that respondents record in essentially real time at the
point of payment. Recall-based estimates of payments are likely to be
inferior to recorded estimates due to potential errors from memory loss
and time aggregation. For more information about the DCPC and its
advantages in measuring consumer expenditures, see Schuh (forthcoming).
Measurement by Recall Versus Recording. By way of summarizing the
material in this paper so far, we describe the main advantage of TTMS
over the U.S. surveys and the innovation in the DCPC relative to the
TTMS. The main advantage of TTMS is that it aims to achieve complete
integration with household financial statements by line-item coverage
and by stock-flow dynamics. To see this point, consider the following
illustrative system of equations that reflects the subset of TTMS
financial-statement estimates for the CF dynamics of Ml liquid assets:
[mathematical expression not reproducible]
where the two assets, k = {1,2}, are currency (1) and demand
deposits (2) and [eta] denotes a composite measurement error. An
overhead circumflex ("hat") denotes a variable that is
estimated directly by the survey (TTMS). The exception is that the TTMS
does not directly collect cash holdings every period, unlike the DCPC.
Instead, the TTMS makes an estimate of the initial stocks, [mathematical
expression not reproducible] and then uses these stock-flow identities
to impute the estimates of cash stocks in subsequent periods, denoted by
an overhead tilde (~). In the imputation procedure, the TTMS enforces
the constraints imposed by the principles of integration, such as
[[??].sub.kt] [greater than or equal to] 0, and makes judgmental
adjustments where necessary.
Conceptually, the TTMS is fully integrated. It achieves complete
integration by line-item coverage because it estimates all items of the
balance sheet ([A.sub.1t], [A.sub.2t]) and CF statement ([D.sub.1t],
[D.sub.2t], [W.sub.1t], [W.sub.2t]). As a result, the TTMS would also
achieve complete integration by dynamics, provided it covered 100% of
the dollar values of the items; in this case, the stock-flow dynamics
would hold without error. However, it is essentially impossible for a
survey to reach complete value coverage, due to sampling errors, among
other challenges. For this reason, the TTMS imputes the periodic stock
of currency using a judgmental estimate of the starting value of
currency holdings for each household and adjusts it periodically if the
stock-flow law of motion produces an invalid level estimate. Of course,
the TTMS cannot claim to achieve full integration by dynamics or by item
coverage in terms of dollar value, as TTMS estimates likely have
measurement errors, as all surveys do. Nevertheless, the TTMS is
generally much more integrated than the U.S. surveys analyzed earlier,
which have much less than full integration by coverage (item or value)
and relatively large errors in CF dynamics. The links between the income
statement and the balance sheet were not incorporated into these U.S.
surveys.
In particular, one type of measurement error likely occurring in
the TTMS CF estimates arises from recall-based low-frequency (monthly)
estimates of CF. As noted, recall errors may occur from memory loss due
to time aggregation over the days of the month or over the number of
cash deposits and withdrawals (payments). To see this, note that monthly
currency withdrawals,
[W.sub.1t] = [[D.sub.t].summation over (d=1)] [[K.sub.t].summation
over (k=1)][W.sub.1kdt],
are the sum over all opportunities and days, where 28 [less than or
equal to] [D.sub.t] [less than or equal to] 31 and [K.sub.t] [greater
than or equal to] 0. Like most U.S. surveys, the TTMS obtains an
aggregate recall-based estimate of monthly cash withdrawals,
[[??].sub.1t], from deposits to currency, without measuring each
individual cash withdrawal, [W.sub.1kdt]. The same measurement issue
holds for currency deposits, which are less frequent and thus may be
measured with less error.
By comparison, daily payment diaries like the DCPC represent an
innovation in the measurement of stock-flow dynamics by recording
high-frequency (daily) CF. For example, the DCPC obtains an estimate of
each individual cash withdrawal, [[??].sub.1kdt], by type, so the DCPC
estimate of aggregate monthly cash withdrawals is the sum of individual
withdrawals estimates,
[[bar.W].sub.1t] = [[D.sub.t].summation over
(d=1)][[K.sub.t].summation over (k=1)] [??],
denoted by an overhead line. Therefore, if high-frequency (daily)
recorded estimates of CF are more accurate than low-frequency (monthly)
recall-based estimates, then we expect that
[absolute value of [bar.[W.sub.1t]] - [W.sup.*.sub.1t]] <
[absolute value of [??] - [W.sup.*.sub.1t]],
at least on average, if not period-by-period as well. Consequently,
the DCPC estimates of the stock-flow law of motion for currency,
[DELTA] [A.sub.1t] = [bar.[D.sub.1t]] - [bar.[W.sub.1t]] +
[[mu].sub.1t],
are likely to be a better measure than those from the TTMS for the
reasons enumerated above: (1) DCPC estimates of monthly currency flows
are sums of individual opportunity-day flows; and (2) DCPC estimates of
currency holdings are obtained each period, not derived from an initial
condition (estimate) using the estimated flows. In this sense, the DCPC
estimates improve the integration of surveys with financial statements
and offer the opportunity for enhanced analysis of household behavior,
as demonstrated below.
C. Statements of CF
The statements of CF constructed from the TTMS and CPC surveys
appear in Table 7. In most respects, these CF statements are designed
analogously to the statements of CF from the U.S. surveys (Table 4), and
the elements are defined similarly to those in the balance sheets and
income statements for TTMS and SCPC/DCPC (Tables 5 and 6). One exception
is that the TTMS and DCPC represent CF and balance-sheet changes for one
exact month (October 2012) rather than annual (or lower-frequency)
flows. Also, bear in mind that the TTMS CF from financing equal the
actual changes in the balance-sheet stocks. Therefore, the estimated
change in currency from the CF statement equals the change from the
balance sheet by definition; hence, the CF error is exactly zero because
the stock-flow principle of motion is an identity, a significant step
forward. Thus, the TTMS appears fully integrated by dynamics, but this
integration is "artificially" high because it is derived
rather than estimated directly.
CF in Thai and U.S. households differ in both magnitude and type.
Net income is naturally much larger, $5,767 versus $729, in U.S.
households. Adjustments to net income for accrual-based income in the
statements of CF are modest for Thai households that have business
income (a total increase of $ 130), and not measured for U.S. households
($0), so the difference in CF from production are still large, $5,767
versus $859. However, CF for consumption and investment by U.S.
households are very large, estimated at $6,767, relative to net income
but much smaller relative to income, estimated at $327, for Thai
households. Similarly, U.S. CF from financing are larger, $259 versus
$13, and more diverse, notably with respect to credit cards (which were
not included in the 2012 TTMS). The estimated changes in currency from
CF are roughly similar, $-741 versus $544, despite larger differences in
net income and other flows. Finally, the CF error analysis is not
relevant or comparable. The TTMS error is zero ($0) by definition
because the balance-sheet changes are restricted to equal the CF. In
contrast, the DCPC error is a legitimate derivation from estimates of
all components of the stock-flow relationship. However, the error, $905,
is relatively large, 135% of lagged currency, because the DCPC was not
designed or implemented in a way that would ensure full dynamic
integration. Instead, the DCPC calculations illustrate the potential
advantage of a payment diary in tracking the gross flows of currency and
the stock-flow dynamics in financial statements.
VI. AN INNOVATION TOWARD BETTER INTEGRATION
This section introduces an innovation to CF accounting that
demonstrates a second advantage of the DCPC for moving another step
toward complete ST integration of surveys and financial statements. The
previous section explained how payment diaries like the DCPC produce
better estimates of CF and stocks than monthly surveys do. In addition,
payment diaries can produce estimates of CF that directly link
individual asset and liability accounts to CF via the payment
instrument, rather than just linking aggregate categories of assets and
liabilities to aggregate categories of CF. The remainder of this section
describes the linkage between the balance sheet and payment instruments
and then presents a new analysis of CF by account, before concluding
with a preview of further innovations in the 2015 DCPC.
A. Payment Instruments and Balance-Sheet Accounts
Table 8 depicts the linkage between payment instruments and their
associated balance-sheet accounts: assets and liabilities. Payments are
funded (settled) by one of two broad types of accounts: money (asset)
and credit (liability). Money includes transactions balances, or M1
(currency plus checking accounts), plus certain non-transaction
balances, which are part of M2. The latter are savings, but in some
cases can support a limited number of payments directly from or to the
account (account-to-account, or A2A, transfers). Payments funded by
money are usually settled instantly (with cash) or with delays of at
most a couple days. Alternatively, credit accounts fund payments that
are settled much later; nonrevolving credit accounts (charge cards)
require consumers to repay their debt during a certain period (typically
a month), while revolving credit accounts (credit cards) offer consumers
the option of rolling over some of the debt (up to a credit limit) to
the future indefinitely in exchange for incurring interest charges.
Monetary assets and unused credit limits are the liquidity that fund
payments that are tracked by instrument in the DCPC. (36)
The linkage between payment instruments and balance-sheet accounts
merits additional discussion before moving ahead. Table 8 reveals that
in U.S. household balance sheets the linkage is not one-to-one, due to
the proliferation of accounts and payment instruments in the U.S.
monetary and payment system. This linkage complexity is most evident in
the variety of instruments that can access various types of deposit
accounts (including saving accounts in M2). In particular, debit cards,
various types of checks, and electronic banking methods (OBBP and BANP)
all can be used to authorize payment or transfer from different types of
accounts. In addition, the linkages depicted in Table 8 reflect
aggregation of individual accounts within a type of account that the
overall pattern does not reveal. For example, the 2012 SCPC indicates
that 38% of U.S. consumers have more than one demand deposit (checking)
account (DDA), and 57% of consumers with multiple DDAs have multiple
debit cards, typically one (per account holder) for each DDA.
Consequently, the linkages between accounts and instruments can be
disaggregated further to match specific accounts and instruments within
the categories of Table 8. For example, a consumer (or household) may
own two DDAs with a debit card for each; thus, it would be necessary to
link DDA #1 to debit card #1, and similarly for the other account and
card. The 2012 DCPC accurately measures the linkages between types of
accounts and types of instruments (such as DDAs and debit cards), but it
does not measure the linkages between specific individual accounts and
specific individual instruments.
B. CF by Account
Given the linkage between accounts and instruments, the DCPC can
also link balance-sheet accounts (or types of cash stocks) to household
expenditures on consumer nondurable goods and services (or types of
withdrawal flows). (37) Theoretically, a payment diary could link
balance-sheet accounts for household capital goods to payments for
investment in durable goods, but the 2012 DCPC did not track these
concepts. In any case, the payment instrument plays the pivotal role
because, for each payment, it directly links the balance sheet--that is,
the asset or liability funding the payment--to consumer expenditures
broadly defined (more broadly than narrow consumption) for each payment
transaction.
Our major innovation of this paper is the "Statement of
Account Flows," which is constructed using the DCPC and appears in
Table 9. The rows in this new type of financial statement are generally
formatted as in a statement of CF, but separately for each payment
account. For example, the first column is the statement of currency
flows, which records the inflows and outflows of currency for each type
of transaction, starting with currency inflow from production activities
(monthly basis) in row A and followed by currency outflow from
consumption and investment activities in row B (separating consumption
expenditure in row B.1 from capital expenditure in row B.2). Next, row C
and its subsidiary rows report the net currency flows from financing
activities and its components: deposits (inflows; the C.1 rows) of
currency from each other account (DDA, nonfinancial deposit accounts
[NFDA], foreign currency, long-term financial assets [LTFA], revolving
debt, and other debt) and withdrawals (outflows; the C.2 rows) of
currency to each of those accounts. The remaining rows compare the
changes in currency balances from the statement of currency flows above
(row D) with those estimated from the balance sheet (row E), plus an
estimate of the error (in value and percentage of prior-period balance,
rows F and G, respectively).
Similarly to the statement of currency flows in the first column,
the remaining columns of the table represent information for the flows
of DDA, NFDA, foreign currency, LTFA, revolving debt, and other debt,
with the final column reporting the row sum. This provides the link from
aggregate cash to each of the payments mechanisms. Importantly, note
that the total net flows concept in row C appears in the last column
("All") as exactly zero by construction, since what goes into
one payment account comes from another.
Total average account balances of U.S. consumers declined $1,004 in
October 2012, according to the DCPC, as average consumption, at $6,771,
exceeded total account flows from production activities, which were
$5,767. This change in account balances tabulated from account flows
resulted from much larger gross inflows and outflows, as withdrawals, at
$8,524, exceeded deposits, which were $7,520. However, the decline in
account balances estimated from the statement of account flows was
considerably smaller in absolute value than the corresponding change
estimated from balance-sheet stocks, which was $8,816. Therefore, the
statement of account balances suggests that the DCPC is likely
incomplete and may have considerable measurement errors, despite its
conceptual promise for better integration by dynamics. One obvious area
of incompleteness in the statement of account flows is that deposits of
income to DDAs are not measured directly, but rather assumed to equal
the difference between net income and currency deposits to income. (38)
The statement of account flows exhibits at least two interesting
results with economic implications that may be useful for future
research to link real (consumption) and nominal (financial) household
choices. First, 99% of consumption, at $6,771, is funded by payments
from DDAs (65.3%), from credit cards (18.4%), and from currency (15.3%).
This result reflects heterogeneity in consumer payment choices, which
may have implications for payment systems and for household budgeting
and management of liquidity. Second, the gross-flow magnitudes are not
small relative to income and consumption, which raises questions about
the efficiency of the monetary system and relates to the classic
literature on money demand: Why are U.S. households holding relatively
large amounts of their liquid assets in payment accounts (just as Thai
households hold so much in currency)? Also, it is still not entirely
clear why consumers make such large transfers between currency and DDA,
two assets that have the same monetary nature (M1) and are essentially
equivalent for the settling of exchange. Evidence from the Survey of
Consumer Payment Choice indicates that many U.S. consumers still rate
the characteristics of currency (cost, speed, convenience,
recordkeeping, and such) high relative to other payment instruments, and
merchant acceptance of instruments is still not universal. Nevertheless,
these large transfers between currency and DDA likely involve costs that
may be reduced by the use of electronic money. All together, the account
flows provide new data with advantages that potentially offer greater
insight than existing data and research do into household financial
decision making and the optimal design of the payments system more
generally.
C. Improvements to the 2015 DCPC
While the 2012 DCPC introduced an innovation to the measurement of
currency flows that has enhanced the degree of integration for one type
of asset (currency), its coverage of financial statements has been
relatively low, due to its limited mission and purpose. However,
expanding the DCPC to measure the stocks of other assets from which
consumers make payments not only increases coverage and integration but
also provides important information for studying payment choices. For
example, the analysis of the demand for currency and payment cards
(debit and credit) by Briglevics and Schuh (2014) was limited by the
lack of data on checking account balances. Also, the results by Schuh
(2017) demonstrating the close correspondence between payments and
personal income were produced without the benefit of direct measurement
of the receipt of income by DCPC respondents.
Consequently, in 2015, the Boston Fed undertook to make major
improvements to the SCPC and DCPC that substantially improved their
integration with household integrated financial statements and the ST
methodology. Improvements to the coverage of balance sheets included
adding:
* Additional short-term liquid assets other than currency,
including balances held in checking (DDA) and nonbank deposit accounts,
such as prepaid cards, PayPal, and so on (SCPC and DCPC).
* Collection of outstanding debt balances from credit card bill
payments (DCPC only).
Improvements to coverage of income and CF statements included
adding:
* More intentional and detailed classification of expenditures
based on official NIPA definitions of consumption, which increases the
precision of the distinction between consumption and nonconsumption
expenditures (DCPC only).
* Collection of the actual dollar values, types, and frequencies of
personal income receipts, which will permit direct comparison of
aggregate DCPC income with NIPA income (39) (DCPC only).
* Increased precision and information about the timing and nature
of bill payments, which will improve the classification of expenditures
and expand the capability to link payments to assets, and especially to
liabilities (such as outstanding debt other than credit card debt).
Data from the 2015 and 2016 DCPC are in the process of being
analyzed and prepared for publication in the near future.
D. Lessons for Survey Design
For all of the household financial surveys covered in this paper,
and for any other similar survey, there is a relatively clear and
straightforward path to developing complete integration with household
financial statements. At least two main steps would need to be taken:
1. Obtain complete item coverage. All of the surveys are missing
some line items from the balance sheet, income statement, or statement
of CF. Adding survey questions to obtain estimates for each of these
line items would provide complete item coverage. Of course, the coverage
of a line item is not sufficient for full integration because errors may
arise from sampling, question design, and other factors. Also, further
disaggregation of the line items of the financial statements reported
earlier may be required to achieve accurate aggregate estimates.
Nevertheless, conditional on accurate estimation, comprehensive coverage
of line items is a necessary step toward full integration. The surveys
should also take into consideration innovations in financial instrument
and payment methods, as they provide alternatives or replacements.
2. Ensure exact stock-flow identities. All surveys could improve
the accuracy of their estimation of the dynamic identities inherent in
the statement of CF. The use of high-frequency payment diaries appears
to be one promising method for achieving this improvement. Provided the
estimation of stocks (assets and liabilities) is relatively accurate, it
is the estimation of aggregate flows (income and expenditures) over
relatively long periods of time (minimum 1 month, but up to I year or
more) that is the key survey methodology issue. Survey methods other
than high-frequency payment diaries may yield improved estimates of
aggregate flows, but it is not apparent which are the most successful.
Further research is needed on this matter.
These two items are necessary for improving the integration of
household financial surveys with household financial statements; they
may also have interaction effects: for example, the omission of an asset
from the balance sheet prevents improvements in the statement of CF.
However, there may be other development issues to address as well, such
as further improvements in the survey sampling frames.
VII. EXTENSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
While the development issues necessary for integration are
reasonably clear and straightforward, countervailing factors may inhibit
comprehensive integration. One factor may be the lack of motivation,
mandate, scope, or directive by the survey sponsors. Relatedly, the
expansion of one survey may begin to overlap the coverage of another,
which might be problematic for sponsors. For example, the SCF and CE
each have relative strengths that, when combined, might move the
collective dataset much closer to full integration of the accounts, but
expansion of one or both of these surveys would create significant and
costly duplication and would likely trigger a call for streamlining.
Finally, an obvious inhibiting factor is the lack of sufficient
budgetary resources to expand the survey and diary program, although
budgetary resources are jointly determined with the previously mentioned
factors.
The preceding discussion is equally relevant for the CPC survey and
diary. Like all surveys, the 2012 SCPC and DCPC have advantages and
disadvantages relative to the other surveys. However, one promising
feature of the CPC survey and diary is that they have considerable room
for quality improvements to the questionnaires that do not require
additional budgetary resources, alternative sampling methods, or broader
scope of operation and directive. The Boston Fed implemented the
following improvements in the SCPC and DCPC during the fall of 2015, and
the results will be forthcoming in future research.
* Separately identifying the payer (consumer) and payee rather than
defining merchant categories that combine payee and type of expenditure,
a separation that enables a far richer understanding of the purposes and
reasons for the expenditure (including whether or not the expenditure
was expected and the source of funding for unexpected expenses).
* Improvements to the statement of CF include additional
information on how households finance their expenditures, and also
provide additional real-time error-checking of online questionnaire
responses, using stock-flow identities among assets, income, and
expenditures.
These improvements highlight the fact that payment diaries link
individual expenditure entries of the income statement with their
associated assets and liabilities in the balance sheet and the detailed
statement of CF in ways that have not been realized in other studies,
including ST. However, the improvements are modest relative to the
additional innovations that would be required to achieve complete
integration, so much more research and data collection are needed.
The CE also is undergoing a redesign and improvement effort in
response to recommendations from a National Academy of Sciences review
panel, as described by National Research Council (2013). The report
recommends considering three new prototype designs:
* Design A--Detailed expenditures through self-administration. This
method would improve respondent reporting of expenditures and reduce
respondent burden in data collection.
* Design B--A comprehensive picture of income and expenditures.
This method would use technology, financial records, financial software,
and budget balancing to improve estimates of the income statement.
* Design C--Dividing tasks among multiple integrated samples. This
method would improve estimation of income-statement items through better
use of sampling methodology.
While these improvements are valuable and promising, the NAS report
does not appear to discuss or advocate the concept of integration beyond
improvements to estimation of the income-statement line items.
A detailed discussion of research coming from the TTMS, SCPC, DCPC,
and the other U.S. surveys is outside the scope of this paper. Many
excellent contributions make use of each of the various surveys, and
some use combinations of them. At the same time, analysts are limited in
what they do without the integration of the accounts; indeed, a
literature review would be useful to enumerate these strengths and
limitations and to illustrate what might be done with improved data. Of
course, this would take us well beyond the current endeavor.
Relatedly, although we have aggregated up to a common
"representative" set of financial accounts, one would often
like to disaggregate to some degree and go back to the underlying data
organized by the accounts. Given the recent interest in the observed
heterogeneous outcomes across U.S. communities in the lead-up and
fallout from the financial crisis, it would be natural to disaggregate
by geography (ZIP code, SMSA, commuting zone, county, and state).
Unfortunately, many of the surveys were not designed to be
representative at this level or lack sufficient observations to provide
statistical significance. Indeed, one ends up taking one piece of data
from one survey, another from another, and so on. But the available data
are not organized systematically under the conceptual framework of
integrated financial accounts. This, too, would seem to be a worthwhile
endeavor that is beyond the scope of the current paper.
In the broader introduction to this paper and in the measurement
efforts in the last few sections, we stressed the importance of payments
data that could make it possible to distinguish among the payment
instruments, align with more conventional measures of CF, and be used to
calculate changes in balance-sheet items and income statements. Again,
we have not had space in this paper to describe this connection in more
detail. Suffice it to note that innovation in financial markets and
monetary policy all point to issues related to the still-important use
of currency and issues related to the potential of alternative media of
exchange based on new asset accounts. Indeed, some papers in the
literature already note that the impact of monetary policy as previously
conducted was a function of the industrial organization of banks at a
local level. In particular, the willingness and ability of households to
substitute across cash and demand deposits was found to be crucial in
gauging the impact of policy. Better data on payments is thus central to
understanding the impact of monetary policy moving forward.
Although we have presented standard accounting practices, the
measurement provided by the accounts should be consistent with the
measurement suggested by theoretical models. For example, if there were
complete markets for contingent claims, then future income flows would
be conceptualized as discounted future income adding to contemporary
wealth. Contingent assets lose value when the expected states of the
world on which their value depends do not occur, but they gain in value
if the contracted state is realized. Wealth or net worth would move only
with aggregate shocks. With incomplete markets and contracts, it is
easier to envision wealth as the buffer stock or pension fund used to
deal with this uninsured uncertainty. In any event, there needs to be a
review of the contracts and implicit understandings a household has
entered into and scrutiny, in turn, of how to treat these in the
accounts. This, as well, remains the subject of another paper.
ABBREVIATIONS
ALP: American Life Panel
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics
CAMS: Consumption and Activities Mail Survey
CCE: Cash and Cash Equivalents
CE: Consumer Expenditure Survey
CF: Cash Flows
CPI: Consumer Price Index
CPRC: Consumer Payments Research Center
DCPC: Diary of Consumer Payment Choice
DDA: Demand Deposit Account
HFCS: Household Finance and Consumption Survey
HRS: Health and Retirement Survey
ISIR: Institute for Social Research
LLC: Limited Liability Corporations
LSMS: Living Standard and Measurement Study
LTFA: Long-Term Financial Assets
NFDA: Nonfinancial Deposit Accounts
NIPA: National Income and Product Accounts
NORC: National Opinion Research Center
PSID: Panel Study on Income Dynamics
SCF: Survey of Consumer Finance
SCPC: Survey of Consumer Payment Choice
SIPP: Survey of Income and Program Participation
ST: Samphantharak and Townsend (2010)
TTMS: Townsend Thai Monthly Survey
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and C. C. House. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2013.
Samphantharak, K., and R. M. Townsend. Households as Corporate
Firms: An Analysis of Household Finance Using Integrated Household
Surveys and Corporate Financial Accounting. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge
University Press, 2010.
Schuh, S. "Measuring Consumer Expenditures with Payment
Diaries." Economic Inquiry, Forthcoming.
SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Additional Supporting Information may be found in the online
version of this article:
Appendix S1. Data Appendix
(1.) For example, Mian and Sufi (2011) study the aggregate impact
of the home-equity-based borrowing channel and find that a large portion
of total new defaults between 2006 and 2008 were from homeowners who had
borrowed aggressively against the rising value of their houses. In a
panel analysis of 30 countries, Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) find that
an increase in the household debt-to-GDP ratio predicts lower GDP growth
and high unemployment. Outside the United States, a study by Agarwal and
Qian (2014) shows a negative consumption response by Singaporean
households to a decrease in access to home equity, with the result
concentrated in credit card spending and stronger among individuals with
limited access to credit markets or with a high precautionary saving
motive.
(2.) For more information on the HFCS, see
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-research/research-networks/
html/researcher_hfcn.en.html.
(3.) Carroll, Crossley, and Sabelhaus (2015) contains numerous
studies showing the various practical and theoretical tradeoffs inherent
in attempting to use survey data to build economic aggregates, tradeoffs
that can make comparing results from different surveys extremely
challenging. For instance, Crossley and Winter (2015) note the
difficulties survey designers can have even in defining the term
"household," which can significantly affect the comparability
of survey results. Similarly, surveys with a short reference period may
underestimate infrequent purchases, while surveys with a long reference
period may suffer from recall issues. Two surveys with different
reference periods may have comparability issues.
(4.) See Ahmed et al. (2015) for more information on the rise of
branchless banking in Pakistan.
(5.) Separately, Schuh (2017) reports that the DCPC produces
estimates of U.S. consumer expenditures that greatly exceed those from
the CE (and diary) and that approximately match National Income and
Product Account estimates of comparably defined measures of consumption
and disposable income.
(6.) For information about Federal Reserve efforts to stimulate
innovations in the U.S. payment system, see
https://fedpaymentsimprovement.org/.
(7.) For more information about the PSID, see
https://psidonline.isr.umich.edu/.
(8.) For more information about the HRS, see
http://hrsonline.isr.umich.edu/.
(9.) For more information about the CE, see http://www.bls
.gov/cex/ and http://www.bls.gov/cex/esxovr.htm. The CE dates back to
the 1800s but was not implemented annually until 1980; for details, see
https://www.bls.gov/cex/ ceturnsthirty.htm.
(10.) For more information about the SCF, see http://www
.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/scf/scfindex.htm.
(11.) For more information about the SIPP, see http://www
.census.gov/sipp/.
(12.) The HRS includes consumers ages 50 years and older and thus
includes households with relatively high income and assets, making it
more representative of all U.S. consumers than other surveys that focus
on subsets of the population, such as low-income consumers. Two
nonrepresentative surveys merit analogous analysis but are not included
here because they focus on selected low- and moderate-income (LMI) U.S.
consumers. One is the U.S. Financial Diaries (USFD), produced jointly by
the Center for Financial Services Innovation (CFSI) and the NYU Wagner
Financial Access Initiative. For more information, see http://www
.usfinancialdiaries.org/. Another is the National Asset Scorecard for
Communities of Color (NASCC), which is very similar to the PSID. For
more information, see https://socialequity .duke.edu/research/wealth.
Darity et al. (2015), and Chang et al. (2015).
(13.) This conception of households as analogous to corporate firms
raises some interesting issues. First, one may think of firms as
registered corporate entities. But the financial accounts also apply to
firms that are proprietorships, so formality or legality is not the
issue, per se. More substantive complications remain. The first is how
to treat membership in a household, not only with respect to changes due
to births and deaths of family members but also with respect to changes
due to marriages, divorces, and migration. For that matter, even within
the family there may be individual ownership of assets and liabilities,
traceable in principle when the distinction is clear to the family
members, but often it is not. Or, in the other direction, seemingly
separate families may in fact be closely related, not just by blood or
marriage but also by financial transactions and behavior. This is the
case for family and extended networks, as typically occurs in developing
economies, but also in some advanced economies, such as Spain.
(14.) There are two further qualifications. First, there is an
adjustment for net incoming unilateral transfers (e.g., gifts and
remittances), which are not thought to be part of the return on
investment projects per se but rather a financing device or even good
will. These are not uncommon for households. Second, the balance sheet
can change with asset appreciation or depreciation if these capital
gains or losses are recognized in the income statement. Thus, it is easy
to measure savings poorly if appreciation and depreciation change the
balance sheet and income statements if one does not consider active
flows of funds. Appreciation and depreciation can contribute
substantially to increases and decreases in income, especially for those
with substantial financial portfolios, as is the case for some older
households.
(15.) Accrual-basis accounting, where revenues (income) are
reported when they are earned and expenses (expenditures) are reported
when revenues are reported, may be a more accurate representation of a
company's net profits or financial condition (and a
household's financial condition) than cash-basis accounting.
Accrual-basis estimates would involve a substantial change. ST does this
for the TTMS data, and the contrast of cash basis with accrual basis has
been quite useful in research, as noted earlier. Note that the
differences between cash basis and accrual basis become less relevant
with annual data (in comparison to monthly or quarterly) since cash
received and revenues recognized are likely reported in the same period
(although some differences persist in the Thai data). Likewise, in such
cases, cash outflows and expenses likely take place in the same period.
These two accounting approaches are also less relevant for non-business
households, whose incomes are less likely to involve inventories and
trade credits. Another reason a small difference likely exists between
cash and accrued income in the U.S. data is that a large portion of
income earned by households in the United States is from wages, whose
receipt mostly corresponds to the period when labor services are
provided (the main caveat is the complication on how pensions are
treated, as mentioned above).
(16.) Currency could also refer to foreign currency, such as Euros,
or even private virtual currency, such as bitcoin, but we abstract from
these because the holdings of these currencies by U.S. households are
small and their liquidity is less than that of sovereign currency.
(17.) Recent innovations in the U.S. payment system include nonbank
financial companies that take deposits and make payments, such as PayPal
and general purpose reloadable (GPR) prepaid cards, such as Green Dot,
NetSpend, and Blue Bird. In some cases, these nonbank and/or
nonfinancial companies act as an agent between banks and households and
deposit the money they receive into bank accounts. However, tracking the
actual location of these assets is difficult and is attempted only in
the CPC due to its focus on payments. For most households, bank deposits
are the main type of cash, but nonbank deposits are becoming more common
for some households, especially unbanked and lower-income households.
(18.) Some CF statements focus on "current assets," which
is CCE plus other assets that can reasonably be expected to be converted
into cash (or cash equivalents) within about a year. Some current assets
are primarily attributable to business activity, which is not in the
scope of U.S. financial surveys or covered well by them and is therefore
excluded. These assets include accounts receivable, inventories,
marketable securities, prepaid expenses, and other liquid assets. In
theory, these items apply to household finance, but it would require
significant changes in the scope and methodology of the U.S. surveys to
include them.
(19.) ST also included deposits at financial institutions and
rotating savings and credit association (ROSCA) positions in their
balance sheets. However, these assets are not used much as a medium of
exchange by TTMS households and they change little over time, so they
were excluded from the definition of "cash." Nevertheless, the
ST statements of CF include adjustments for changes in these other
liquid assets.
(20.) The material in this section draws heavily from Imdieke and
Smith (1987).
(21.) This interpretation of the error is likely to be valid for a
point in time, as in our analysis later in the paper. However, the error
could be small in absolute value at any point in time by chance, so a
better measure over time might be the average absolute error over time.
(22.) Assets and liabilities are owned by individual consumers,
denoted by subscript i, who are members of a household. denoted by
subscript h. Agent identifiers are suppressed for simplicity because the
following discussion assumes aggregation occurs across all agents
eventually.
(23.) The day-specific flows are net of intraday deposits and
withdrawals, so this accounting could occur even more frequently (hourly
or even by the minute) to obtain further insight into CF.
(24.) This discussion and conceptualization apply even if a survey
does not have disaggregated data. Some notion of cash is implicitly
being used. That said, one can imagine how errors could arise, in
particular, discrepancies between the income statement and balance
sheet.
(25.) This conversion is necessary because of differences in the
sampling units. For surveys that do not use households as the reporting
unit, we sum across all reporting units to get the U.S. total and then
divide by a common estimate of the number of households from the March
Current Population Survey (CPS).
(26.) This classification naturally involves some discretion as to
the grouping and especially the level of aggregation. The latter affects
the quantitative measure of integration later, but can be made higher or
lower for alternative analyses.
(27.) We again thank the staff members of each survey program who
did so. This comparison is painstaking and difficult for one survey,
much less several, and it is a challenge even for the survey managers.
Thus, we view our results in this section as preliminary and welcome
further development and improvement of the analysis. To this end, we are
making underlying data and software programs available to the public,
and we invite other researchers to refine and expand our analysis.
(28.) There are some tradeoffs between using book value and market
value. For illiquid assets (of any type) that are rarely traded, market
value is not readily available. Subjective assessments of value are
prone to have measurement errors. In such cases, conservative accounting
practices value the assets at historical cost. In contrast,
mark-to-market requirements may be more appropriate when markets are
thick and volatility is not excessive.
(29.) Respondents to the SCF report actual currency holdings only
if they choose to do so in an optional response about other assets, and
this category also includes "cash" that is not currency, like
prepaid cards. The SCF estimate is very small relative to the amount
reported by Greene, Schuh, and Stavins (2016) from the SCPC, which
indicates average total cash holdings per consumer of $207 (excluding
large holdings, which represent the top 2% but are not estimated
precisely).
(30.) For more information about these business structures and
their tax implications, see https://www.irs.gov/
businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/business-structures.
(31.) The number of sole proprietorships and partnerships was equal
to about 24% of U.S. households in 2012, and about 6% of U.S. employment
is self-employment as of 2016. The actual share of households with one
of these businesses depends on the type of business and the composition
of households. but we lack sufficient data to make exact calculations.
(32.) The duration of the preceding period varies according to the
frequency of the surveys, from one quarter (CE) to 3 years (SCF).
(33.) In principle, it would be interesting to compare the coverage
ratios with the CF errors to quantify the relationship between them.
However, with only one point-in-time estimate of coverage and dynamic
integration for a handful of surveys, such an analysis would be
premature. With more data on CF errors over time, it might be feasible
to conduct such an analysis.
(34.) Measuring cash in "pocket, purse, or wallet" is an
approximate method of identifying actual "transactions
balances" of cash. Although it does not ask the respondent for
these balances directly, it is a relatively objective and easy method of
collecting these data. An alternative approach is to ask for
"transactions balances" directly, as in the Survey of
Household Income and Wealth in Italy
(http://www.eui.eu/Research/Library/ResearchGuides/Economics/Statistics/DataPortal/SHIW.aspx). The SCPC also estimates U.S. consumer holdings of
cash balances "on their property" (house, car, etc.), and some
of this cash may be intended (eventually) for use in transactions as
well. However, it is unclear whether respondents have an appropriate
understanding of transactions balances or provide accurate estimates of
them.
(35.) See Fulford, Greene, and Murdock (2015) for an analysis of $1
bills and Greene and Schuh (2014) for an analysis of $100 bills.
(36.) Note that deposits into an asset account are similar to
reductions in loan accounts, although one is an asset and the other a
liability. Likewise, withdrawals from an asset account are similar to
increases in loan accounts. But there is a substantive difference in
that asset accounts require deposits before being used, whereas
liability accounts can be unfunded initially and repaid later.
(37.) If designed properly, a payments diary also could link
balance-sheet accounts to the expenditures of household businesses, but
we omit these from the discussion because the DCPC instructed
respondents to exclude household business payments.
(38.) Furthermore, the income of individual consumers (2012 DCPC
respondents) is not estimated directly. We use the 2012 SCPC estimate of
household income for the respondent (reported in categorical form rather
than in exact dollar amounts) and other data in the SCPC. DCPC, and SCF
to impute income for the DCPC respondents. This shortcoming was
partially addressed in the 2015 DCPC (see Section VI.C below).
(39.) The 2012 DCPC only asked for the days on which income was
received by the respondent, not the dollar amount of income of
individual respondents. The 2012 and 2015 SCPC asked for total household
income in dollar ranges.
KRISLERT SAMPHANTHARAK, SCOTT SCHUH and ROBERT M. TOWNSEND *
* Stacy Carlson, Mi Luo. Jason Premo, Giri Subramaniam, and David
Zhang provided excellent research assistance. We thank Allison Cole,
Claire Greene, John Sabelhaus, Robert Triest, the editor of Economic
Inquiry, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments, and Suzanne
Lorant for excellent editing. We also thank all the staff members who
manage the surveys studied in this paper for their assistance and
reviews of our data calculations. The Townsend Thai Monthly Survey has
been supported by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child
Health and Human Development (NICHD) grant number ROI HD027638; the
research initiative PEDL, a program funded jointly by CEPR and DFID,
under grant MRG002_1255; the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce; the
Thailand Research Fund; and the Bank of Thailand. The views expressed in
this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the
views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve
System.
Samphantharak: Associate Professor, Department of Economics,
University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0519. E-mail
ksamphan@ucsd.edu
Schuh: Director, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston, Boston, MA 01887. Phone (617) 973-3941, Fax (617) 619-7541,
E-mail scott.schuh@bos.frb.org
Townsend: Elizabeth & James Killian Professor, Department of
Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA
02142-1347. E-mail rtownsen@mit.edu
doi: 10.1111/ecin.12489
Online Early Publication October 12, 2017
Caption: FIGURE 1 Relation between Household Income Statement and
Balance Sheet
Caption: FIGURE 2 Constructing Financial Statements from a Panel
Household Survey
Caption: FIGURE 3 Financial Statement Line-Item Coverage Ratios for
U.S. Surveys
TABLE 1
Overview of U.S. Surveys and Diaries and TTMS
PSID CE-S/D
Sponsor University of BLS
Michigan
Vendor University of Census Bureau
Michigan
Frequency Biennial Monthly
Period 1968-present 1980-present
Statistical 2011, 2013 2011, 2012
calculations
Questionnaires
Observation unit U.S. family unit U.S. consumer units
Mode(s) Interview Interview, diary
Data collection Recall Recording, recall
Measurement Past year Daily expenditures
period (diary), or past year
(survey)
Sampling
Target population Total U.S. Total U.S.
noninstitutional noninstitutional
Sampling frame Survey research U.S. Census Bureau
center national master address file
sampling frame
Sample size ~10,000 ~7,000
Longitudinal panel 4 consecutive 14 days
quarters
SCF SIPP
Sponsor Federal Reserve Census Bureau
Board
Vendor NORC/University of Census Bureau
Chicago
Frequency Triennial Quarterly
Period 1983:Ql-present 1983:Q4-present
Statistical 2009, 2012 2010, 2011
calculations
Questionnaires
Observation unit U.S. primary U.S households
economic units
Mode(s) Interview Interview
Data collection Recall Recall
Measurement "Average" week for Past month, past
period expenditures, past 4 months, or past
year for income year
Sampling
Target population Total U.S. Total U.S.
noninstitutional
Sampling frame NORC national U.S. Census Bureau
sampling frame and master address file
1RS data
Sample size ~6,000 14,000-52,000
Longitudinal panel None 2.5-4 years
HRS/CAMS S/D-CPC
Sponsor University of Boston Fed
Michigan
Vendor University of RAND/University of
Michigan Southern California
Frequency Biennial Yearly/Irregular
Period 2008-present 2012, 2015
Statistical 2010, 2012 2011, 2012
calculations
Questionnaires
Observation unit U.S. households U.S. consumers and
households
Mode(s) Interview, mail Interview, diary
Data collection Recall Recording (1 day),
recall (1 year)
Measurement Past year Daily payments
period (DCPC), or
"typical" week,
month, year
(SCPC)
Sampling
Target population U.S. ages 50+ Age 18+
noninstitutional noninstitutional
Sampling frame Panel of adults born RAND ALP, USC
1931-1941 UAS, GfK
knowledge
networks
Sample size 9,000-15,000 ~2,000
Longitudinal panel Fixed 3-day waves tied to
SCPC annual panel
TTMS
Sponsor Townsend
Thai
Monthly
sponsors
Vendor Thai Family
Research
Project
Frequency Monthly
Period 1998-present
Statistical 2012
calculations
Questionnaires
Observation unit Thai
households
Mode(s) Interview
Data collection Recall
Measurement Past month
period
Sampling
Target population Rural and
semi-urban
households
Sampling frame Initial village
census
Sample size ~800
Longitudinal panel 1998-present
CE-S: http://www.bls.gov/CE/capi/2015/cecapihome.htm;
CE-D: http://www.bls.gov/CE/ced/2013/cedhome.htm; TTMS:
http://townsend-thai.mit.edu/about/; SIPP:
http://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/sipp/about.html;
PSID: https://psidonline.isr.umich.edu/; SCPC:
http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/cprc/scpc/;
DCPC: https://www.bostonfed.org/economic/cprc/
data-resources.htm; SCF: https://www.federalreserve.gov/-
econresdata/scf/scfindex.htm; HRS/CAMS:
https://hrs.isr.umich.edu/about
TABLE 2
U.S. Surveys: Balance Sheets: (A) Assets, Various
Dates and (B) Liabilities, Various Dates
PSID CES SCF
(A) Assets 422,616 226,314 632,246
Median 151,000 170,600
Financial assets 163,376 65,537 262,168
(% of assets) (39) (29) (41)
CURRENT ASSETS 95,883 65,115 140,176
Cash 29,850 30,849 30,354
Currency 12
Government-backed 12
currency
Private virtual
currency
Bank accounts 29,850 30,849 30,342
Checking accounts 17,239 12,660
Savings accounts 13,610 17,682
Other deposit accounts 0
Other current assets 66,033 34,266 109,822
Certificates of deposit 4,994
Bonds 408 8,227
Mutual funds/hedge funds 40,964
Publicly traded equity 56,335 33,858 48,874
Life insurance 9,698 6,763
LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS 67,493 422 121,992
Retirement accounts 67,493 97,007
Annuities 5,490
Trusts/managed 13,773
investment accounts
Loans to people outside 422 5,722
the household
Other important assets
Tangible (physical) assets 259,240 160,777 362,445
(% of assets) (61) (71) (57)
Business 51,404 108,760
Housing assets 188,992 160,777 234,187
Primary residence 149,211 149,760 170,159
Other real estate 39,781 11,017 64,028
Vehicles 18,844 19,498
Unknown assets 7,633
(%) of assets) (1)
(B) Liabilities 82,288 73,668 112,306
Median 18,800 23,000
Revolving debt 2,671 4,512 2,185
(% of liabilities) (3) (6) (2)
Credit cards/charge cards 2,671 4,447 2,096
Revolving store accounts 65 89
Nonrevolving debt 79,617 69,156 110,121
(% of liabilities) (97) (94) (98)
Housing 67,506 58,143 87,223
Mortgages for primary 54,856 52,559 63,889
residence
Mortgages for investment 12,650 3,086 19,598
real estate or second
home
HELOC/HEL 2,498 3,556
Loans for improvement 180
Loans on vehicles 4,310 3,926 4,508
Education loans 6,507 5,788
Business loans 10,317
Investment loans 289
(e.g., margin loans)
Unsecured personal loans
Loans against pension plan 288
Payday loans/pawn shops
Other loans 1,294 7,087 1,708
Net worth (equity) 340,328 152,646 519,940
Cumulative net gifts
received
Cumulative savings
HRS SIPP
(A) Assets 556,295 351,702
Median 240,000 67,113
Financial assets 205,461 160,651
(% of assets) (37) (46)
CURRENT ASSETS 125,898 102,642
Cash 34,733 12,434
Currency
Government-backed
currency
Private virtual
currency
Bank accounts 34,733 536
Checking accounts 536
Savings accounts
Other deposit accounts 11,898
Other current assets 91,165 90.208
Certificates of deposit 9,354
Bonds 14,860 3,376
Mutual funds/hedge funds 18,830
Publicly traded equity 66,951
Life insurance 68,002
LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS 79,563 58,009
Retirement accounts 79,563 54,759
Annuities
Trusts/managed
investment accounts
Loans to people outside 361
the household
Other important assets 2,889
Tangible (physical) assets 336,951 191,051
(% of assets) (61) (54)
Business 55,006 25,921
Housing assets 264,500 154,795
Primary residence 190,818 147,855
Other real estate 73,682 6,940
Vehicles 17,445 10,335
Unknown assets 13,883
(%) of assets) (2)
(B) Liabilities 64,614 61,979
Median 5,600 3,750
Revolving debt 2,661
(% of liabilities) (4)
Credit cards/charge cards
Revolving store accounts
Nonrevolving debt 64,614 59,318
(% of liabilities) (100) (96)
Housing 58,584
Mortgages for primary 48,984
residence
Mortgages for investment 4,440
real estate or second
home
HELOC/HEL
Loans for improvement 5,160
Loans on vehicles 3,707
Education loans
Business loans 5,338
Investment loans 102
(e.g., margin loans)
Unsecured personal loans
Loans against pension plan
Payday loans/pawn shops
Other loans 6,030 50,171
Net worth (equity) 491,681 289,723
Cumulative net gifts
received
Cumulative savings
Notes: Table entries are average dollar values for
the survey's unit of observation, approximately a
household. Assets and liabilities are stocks dated
as of the time of the survey, generally the end of
the year. Sampling weights provided by each survey
were used in calculating the average values in accordance
with the survey's data documentation. A more detailed data
appendix (Appendix SI, Supporting Information) and the Stata
programs used to construct the tables are available at
http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/F7JB 1K. HELOC/HEL,
home equity line of credit / home equity loan.
Sources: PSID 2013, CE 2012, SCF 2013, HRS 2012, and
SIPP 2011. See Section II for more details.
TABLE 3
U.S. Surveys: Income Statements, Various Dates
PSID CES
Income 67,187 65,316
Median 44,500 46,774
Labor income 53,623 51,543
(% of total income) (80) (79)
Wages and salaries 53,473 51,543
Professional practice or trade 113
Other labor earnings 37
Production income 3,748 3,075
(% of total income) (6) (5)
Business income (self-employment) 2,472 2,926
Rent 1,276 149
Other income 9,816 10,698
(% of total income) (15) (16)
Interest, dividends, etc. 2,206 1,204
Government transfer receipts 1,302 5,812
Other transfer receipts, from business 131
Other transfer receipts, from persons 380
All other income 6,177 3,302
Expenditures 1,837 4,345
Production costs
(% of total expenditures)
Depreciation
Capital losses
Business expenses
Cost of labor provision
Cost of other production activities
Taxes 1,837 4,345
(% of total expenditures) (100) (100)
Employment taxes 2,508
Other taxes 1,837 1,837
Net income 65,350 60,971
SCF HRS SIPP
Income 83,863 79,779 61,431
Median 45,000 46,300 45,396
Labor income 53,192 42,377 48,767
(% of total income) (63) (53) (79)
Wages and salaries 53,192
Professional practice or trade
Other labor earnings
Production income 11,347 1,144
(% of total income) (14) (2)
Business income (self-employment) 11,347
Rent 1,144
Other income 19,324 37,402 18,176
(% of total income) (23) (47) (30)
Interest, dividends, etc. 6,682 18,093
Government transfer receipts 10,670 12,415 7,294
Other transfer receipts, from business 423
Other transfer receipts, from persons 372
All other income 1.600 6,471 10,882
Expenditures 2,007 0 22,487
Production costs
(% of total expenditures)
Depreciation
Capital losses
Business expenses
Cost of labor provision
Cost of other production activities
Taxes 2,007 2,798
(% of total expenditures) (100)
Employment taxes 585
Other taxes 2,007 2,213
Net income 81,856 79,779 38,944
Notes: Table entries are average dollar values for
the survey's unit of observation, approximately a
household. Income and expenses are reported for the
prior 12 months, or annualized where necessary. Sampling
weights provided by each survey were used in calculating
the average values in accordance with the survey's data
documentation. A more detailed data appendix (Appendix S1)
and the Stata programs used to construct the tables are
available at http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/F7JB1K.
Sources; PSID 2013, CE 2012, SCF 2013, HRS 2012, and
SIPP 2011. See Section II for more details.
TABLE 4
U.S. Surveys: Statements of CF
PSID CES
(Cash Defined as Current Assets) 2010-2012 2011-2012
Net income (+) 65,350 60,971
Adjustments:
Depreciation (+) 0 0
Change in account 0 0
receivables (-)
Change in account payables (+) 0 0
Change in inventory (-) 0 0
Change in other (not cash) 0 0
current assets (-)
Consumption of household 0 0
produced outputs (-)
CF from production 65,350 60,971
Consumption expenditure (-) -43,766 -44,849
Capital (durable goods) 0 0
expenditure (-)
CF from consumption and -43,766 -44,849
investment
Transfers to/from long-term -362 0
investments
Leading (-) 0 -151
Borrowing (+) 4,230 8,089
Net gifts received (+) 0 0
CF from financing 3,868 7,938
Change in cash holding 25,452 24,060
(from statement of CF)
Change in cash holding 3,091 17,770
(from statement of
balance sheet)
CF error 22,362 6,290
Internal error (%) 25 13
External error (%) 30 8
SCF HRS
(Cash Defined as Current Assets) 2010-2013 2010-2012
Net income (+) 81,856 79,779
Adjustments:
Depreciation (+) 0 0
Change in account 0 0
receivables (-)
Change in account payables (+) 0 0
Change in inventory (-) 0 0
Change in other (not cash) 0 0
current assets (-)
Consumption of household 0 0
produced outputs (-)
CF from production 81,856 79,779
Consumption expenditure (-) -28,850 -45,073
Capital (durable goods) 0 0
expenditure (-)
CF from consumption and -28,850 -45,073
investment
Transfers to/from long-term 1,231 0
investments
Leading (-) 1,359 50
Borrowing (+) -4,349 -3,757
Net gifts received (+) 0 0
CF from financing -1,759 -3,707
Change in cash holding 51,247 31,000
(from statement of CF)
Change in cash holding 3,843 1,678
(from statement of
balance sheet)
CF error 47,404 29,322
Internal error (%) 37 24
External error (%) 61 39
SIPP
(Cash Defined as Current Assets) 2010-2011
Net income (+) 38,944
Adjustments:
Depreciation (+) 0
Change in account 0
receivables (-)
Change in account payables (+) 0
Change in inventory (-) 0
Change in other (not cash) 0
current assets (-)
Consumption of household 0
produced outputs (-)
CF from production 38,944
Consumption expenditure (-) -22,487
Capital (durable goods) 0
expenditure (-)
CF from consumption and -22,487
investment
Transfers to/from long-term 0
investments
Leading (-) 4,452
Borrowing (+) -8,988
Net gifts received (+) 0
CF from financing -4,536
Change in cash holding 11,921
(from statement of CF)
Change in cash holding -18,622
(from statement of
balance sheet)
CF error 30,543
Internal error (%) 25
External error (%) 42
Notes: Table entries are average dollar values for the
survey's unit of observation, approximately a household.
CF are at a yearly rate and are constructed with the most
recent prior data available. Sampling weights provided by
each survey were used in calculating the average values.
A more detailed data appendix (Appendix S1) and the Stata
programs used to construct the tables are available at
http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/F7JBlK.
Sources: PSID 2010-2013, CE 2011-2012, SCF 2010-2013,
HRS 2010-2012, and SIPP 2010-2011. See Section II for
more details.
TABLE 5
TTMS and SCPC/DCPC: Balance Sheets, October 2012
DCPC/
TTMS SCPC
Assets 89,082 301,425
Median 146,053
Financial assets 35,553 836
(% of assets) (40) (0)
CURRENT ASSETS 35,321 836
Cash 35,332 836
Currency 30,874 836
Government-backed 30,874 836
currency
Bank accounts 4,458
Other current assets -11
Certificates of deposit
Net ROSCA position -11
Accounts receivable 0
Bonds
Mutual funds/hedge funds
Publicly traded equity
Life insurance
LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS 232
Retirement accounts
Annuities
Trusts/managed investment
accounts
Other lending 232
Tangible (physical) assets 53,529 148,421
(% of assets) (60) (49)
Business assets 334
Agricultural assets 1,243
Housing/household assets 4,582 148.421
Primary residence 148,421
Inventories 8,394
Livestock 290
Other nonfinancial assets 38,687
Unknown assets 152,168
(% of assets) (50)
DCPC/
TTMS SCPC
Liabilities 5,317 120,689
Median 42,935
Revolving debt 5,306
(% of liabilities) (4)
Credit cards/charge cards 5,306
Revolving store accounts
Nonrevolving debt 5,317 115,383
(% of liabilities) (96)
Housing 67,278
Mortgages for primary residence 67,278
Mortgages for investment real
estate
HELOC/HEL
Loans for improvement
Accounts payable 1,480
Loans on vehicles
Education loans
Business loans
Investment loans
(e.g., margin loans)
Unsecured personal loans
Loans against pension plan
Payday loans/pawn shops
Other loans 3,837 48,105
Net worth (equity) 83,765 180,736
Cumulative net gifts received
Cumulative savings 56,779
Notes: Thai baht converted to U.S. dollars at a rate
of 30.68 baht per dollar. Values are stocks as of the
time of the survey, which for the CPC is between the
beginning of September and the end of October. TTMS entries
are at the household level. CPC entries are either at the
household level or converted to a household level by
multiplying consumer values by 2.045. A more detailed
appendix (Appendix SI) and the Stata programs used to
construct the tables are available at
http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/F7JB IK. HELOC/HEL, home
equity line of credit / home equity loan.
Sources: TTMS and SCPC.
TABLE 6
TTMS and SCPC/DCPC: Income Statements, October 2012
TTMS SCPC/DCPC
Income 1,643 5,921
Median 4,413
Censored income 4,789
Labor income 252
(% of total income) (15)
Production income 1,368
(% of total income) (83)
Business 326
Agricultural activities 1,042
Cultivation 536
Livestock 392
Produce 390
Capital gains 2
Fish and shrimp 114
Other income 23
(% of total income) (1)
TTMS SCPC/DCPC
Expenditures 813 1,840
Production costs 813
(% of total expenditures) (100)
Business 251
Agricultural activities 529
Cultivation 133
Livestock 292
Capital losses 1
Depreciation 12
Other expenses 280
Fish and shrimp 104
Labor provision 32
Other production activities 1
Taxes 1,840
(% of total expenditures) (100)
Net income 830 4,081
Notes: Thai baht converted to U.S. dollars at a rate
of 30.68 baht per dollar. Values are stocks as of the
time of the survey, which for the CPC is between the
beginning of September and the end of October. TTMS
entries are at the household level. CPC entries are
either at the household level or converted to a
household level by multiplying consumer values by
2.045. CPC household income is originally reported
in buckets; precise estimates are imputed with the
help of SCF data. A more detailed appendix (Appendix S1)
and the Stata programs used to construct the tables are
available at http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/F7JBlK.
Sources: TTMS, DCPC, and SCPC.
TABLE 7
TTMS and DCPC: Statements of CF, October 2012
(Cash Defined as Currency) TTMS DCPC
Net income (annual basis) (+) 8,750 69,207
Net income (monthly basis) (+) 729 5,767
Adjustments:
Depreciation (+) 94 0
Change in account receivables (-) -37 0
Change in account payables (+) 0 0
Change in inventory (-) 80 0
Consumption of household produced outputs (-) -6 0
Net capital gains (+) -1
CF from production 859 5,767
Consumption expenditure (-) -245 -6,767
Capital (durable goods) expenditure (-) -77 0
CF from consumption and investment -327 -6,767
Change in demand deposits (-) -67 -421
Change in NFDA deposits (-) NA 59
Change in foreign currency (-) NA -2
Change in credit card balance (-) NA 1,292
Change in long-term assets (-) 76 -669
Change in other debts (-) 4 NA
CF from financing 13 259
Change in currency balance 544 -741
(from statement of CF)
Change in currency balance 544 164
(from statement of balance sheet)
CF error 0 905
Internal error NA 135%
Notes: Thai baht converted to U.S. dollars at a rate
of 30.68 baht per dollar. Values are stocks as of the
time of the survey, which for the CPC is between the
beginning of September and the end of October. TTMS
entries are at the household level. CPC entries are
either at the household level or converted to a
household level by multiplying consumer values
by 2.045. CPC household income is originally reported
in buckets; precise estimates are imputed with the
help of SCF data. A more detailed appendix (Appendix S1)
and the Stata programs used to construct the tables are
available at http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/F7JBlK.
Sources: TTMS, DCPC, and SCPC.
TABLE 8
Payment Instruments and their Balance Sheet Accounts
Balance Sheet Accounts Payment Instruments
Assets (money) U.S. currency, foreign
Currency currency, private currency
(e.g., Bitcoin)
Traveler's check Traveler's check
Checking accounts owned by Checks (personal or certified),
consumers (demand and other debit card, OBBP, BANP
checkable deposits)
Checking accounts owned or Cashier's check, prepaid card,
managed by financial money order
institutions or nonfinancial
payment service providers
(but may have pass-through
deposit insurance for
consumers)
Savings accounts owned by Checks, debit card, OBBP, BANP
consumers ("nontransactions"
accounts in the non-M1 part
of M2 with direct payment
capability)
Liabilities (credit)
Revolving credit Credit card
Nonrevolving credit Charge card, text/SMS
OBBP. online banking bill payments; BANP,
bank account number payments; SMS, short message service.
Source: Authors' analysis and Greene,
Schuh, and Stavins (2016).
TABLE 9
DCPC Statement of Account Flows, October 2012
Flows Associated
with Accounts
Currency DDA NFDA
A. Production (inflows) 388 5,379 NA
B. Consumption and -1,038 -4,422 -58
investment (outflows)
B.1 Consumption -1,038 -4,422 -58
expenditure
B.2 Capital (durable NA NA NA
goods) expenditure
C. Financing -91 -536 -1
C.1 Deposits (inflows) 498 564 20
From currency -- 564 15
From demand deposits 455 -- 2
From nonfinancial 21 NA --
deposit accounts
From foreign currency 0 NA NA
From long-term NA NA NA
financial assets
From revolving accounts 22 NA 3
From other debt NA NA NA
Addendum: Total 886 5,943 20
deposits (inflows)
C.2 Withdrawals -589 -1,100 -21
(outflows)
To currency -- -455 -21
To demand deposits -564 -- NA
To nonfinancial deposit -15 -2 --
accounts
To foreign currency -2 NA NA
To long-term assets NA NA NA
To revolving accounts NA NA NA
To other debt -8 -643 0
Addendum: Total -1,627 -5,522 -79
withdrawals (outflows)
D. Change in account -741 421 -59
balance (from Statement
of Account Flows)
E. Change in account 164 NA NA
balance (from Balance
Sheets)
E Flow error 905 NA NA
G. Error (% lagged account 135% NA NA
balance)
Flows Associated
with Accounts
Foreign Revolving
Currency LTFA Debt
A. Production (inflows) NA NA NA
B. Consumption and NA -- -1,249
investment (outflows)
B.1 Consumption NA -- -1,249
expenditure
B.2 Capital (durable NA -- NA
goods) expenditure
C. Financing 2 NA -43
C.1 Deposits (inflows) 2 NA NA
From currency 2 NA NA
From demand deposits NA NA NA
From nonfinancial NA NA NA
deposit accounts
From foreign currency -- NA NA
From long-term NA -- NA
financial assets
From revolving accounts NA NA --
From other debt NA NA NA
Addendum: Total 2 NA NA
deposits (inflows)
C.2 Withdrawals 0 NA -43
(outflows)
To currency 0 NA -22
To demand deposits NA NA NA
To nonfinancial deposit NA NA -3
accounts
To foreign currency -- NA NA
To long-term assets NA -- NA
To revolving accounts NA NA --
To other debt NA NA -18
Addendum: Total NA NA -1,292
withdrawals (outflows)
D. Change in account 2 NA -1,292
balance (from Statement
of Account Flows)
E. Change in account NA -4,501 -673
balance (from Balance
Sheets)
E Flow error NA NA -619
G. Error (% lagged account NA NA 92%
balance)
Flows Associated
with Accounts
Other
Debt All
A. Production (inflows) NA 5,767
B. Consumption and NA -6,771
investment (outflows)
B.1 Consumption NA -6.771
expenditure
B.2 Capital (durable NA NA
goods) expenditure
C. Financing 669 0
C.1 Deposits (inflows) 669 1,753
From currency 8 589
From demand deposits 643 1,100
From nonfinancial 0 21
deposit accounts
From foreign currency NA 0
From long-term NA 0
financial assets
From revolving accounts 18 43
From other debt -- 0
Addendum: Total 669 7,520
deposits (inflows)
C.2 Withdrawals NA -1,753
(outflows)
To currency NA -498
To demand deposits NA -564
To nonfinancial deposit NA -20
accounts
To foreign currency NA -2
To long-term assets NA 0
To revolving accounts NA 0
To other debt -- -669
Addendum: Total NA -8,524
withdrawals (outflows)
D. Change in account 669 -1,004
balance (from Statement
of Account Flows)
E. Change in account 9,489 -8,816
balance (from Balance
Sheets)
E Flow error -8,820 7,812
G. Error (% lagged account 93% -89%
balance)
Source: 2012 DCPC and authors' calculations.
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