Economic openness, power resources and income inequality in the American States.
Xu, Ping
Economic openness, power resources and income inequality in the American States.
Acronyms used in this article: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA),
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Current Population Survey (CPS),
Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplements
(CPS-ASEC), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), cross-sectional and
time-series (CSTS), Error Correction Models (ECM),Gross State Products
(GSP).
The past three decades witnessed a resurgence of income inequality
in a number of western developed countries, spawning waves of
discussions about inequality's economic and political determinants.
In cross-national studies, scholars have largely focused their attention
on two genres of explanation: the socioeconomic and the political
reasons. On the one hand, economists argue that globalization such as
trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI) and migration, along
with other socioeconomic factors, have caused rising income inequality
during this time period (Borjas, 1994; Richardson, 1995; Williamson,
1997; Hatton & Williamson, 1998; Alderson & Nielsen, 2002; Levy
& Temin, 2007). Political scientists, on the other hand, argue that
political power such as the ideological orientation of the incumbent
political parties and strength of labor unions influences income
inequality through various distributive and redistributive policies
(Korpi, 1978; Huber & Stephens, 2001; Bradley, Huber, Moller,
Nielsen, & Stephens, 2003; Moller, Bradley, Huber, Nielsen, &
Stephens, 2003; Huber, Nielsen, Pribble, & Stephens, 2006).
Previous research on income inequality in the U.S. has focused
primarily on the national level and little empirical research has
examined the effect of globalization. The lack of research on
globalization (or economic openness) and inequality is partly due to the
lack of cases in a single-country study because data on some key
variables only go back to a few decades. Lijphart (1971) in his classic
article encourages scholars to use intra-national comparison to overcome
this "lack of case" issue. Luckily, in a federal system such
as the American one, the states differ from one another in a variety of
political and socioeconomic features. For instance, although inequality
has increased across the country, American states vary in their levels
of income inequality as well as in their motives and ability to fight
against its rising. (Kelly & Witko, 2012). In fact, over the past
fifteen years, some states managed to decrease their income inequality,
yet other states experienced a fast-growing disparity. Figure 1 here
shows the growth of income inequality from 1996 to 2010 in American
states. In addition, although policies of trade, FDI and migration are
largely made by the federal government, states experience vastly
different levels of economic openness in all three areas (for an example
see Figure 2 for variation in trade openness across states). (1)
It is curious how globalization influences income inequality in
American states with varying political environments. First of all,
economic openness is indeed an important explanation for rising income
inequality in the U.S. In particular, international trade and
immigration have each significantly contributed to a growing gap between
rich and poor during the past three decades.
[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]
[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]
Secondly, American states play an important role in fighting income
inequality. The data show that states with a liberal state government or
strong labor unions experience decreases in income inequality. They also
show that state-level income inequality is self-correcting; in other
words, when state income inequality is at a high level one year, state
governments will actively fight it back and lower the level in the next
year. These findings verify Kelly and Enns (2010) and Kelly and
Witko's (2012) conclusion that states are active and capable in
fighting inequality. Findings in this paper show strong evidence that
power resource theory applies in the United States, as is also shown in
Kelly and Witko's (2012) article. Democratic presidents, liberal
(or left-leaning) state governments and strong labor unions can all
decrease income inequality. Lastly, considering the fact that inequality
data in cross-national studies are hardly ever consistently compiled but
inequality data at the subnational level in the U.S. are compiled in a
highly consistent manner, (2) findings from this subnational study can
shed a more coherent and consistent light on our understanding of the
dynamics between economic openness, power resources and income
inequality.
In cross-national studies, scholars have long focused their
attention on globalization as an explanation for rising inequality
(Stolper & Samuelson, 1941; Boijas, Freeman, & Katz, 1992; Wood,
1994; Bernard & Jensen, 1995; Krugman & Venables, 1995; Cline,
1997; Wood, 1998; Feenstra & Hanson, 1999; Cline, 2001; Mahler,
2004; Lemieux, 2008; Jaumotte, Lall, & Papageorgiou, 2009).
According to them, trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) into the
country, and migration could all possibly lead to shifts of demand and
supply of labor and capital, and therefore influence income inequality
in one way or the other.
Trade. Using a two-country model, Stolper and Samuelson (1941)
argue that trade liberalization will result in increasing income
inequality in countries with abundant high-skill high-technology labor.
This is because countries with abundant high-skill high-technology labor
will mostly export technology-intensive products and import cheap-labor
intensive products. Exporting technology-intensive products could
potentially result in an increase in demand for high-skill labor in
these developed countries. Consequently, employment opportunities and
wages will increase for high-skill workers. Importing cheap
labor-intensive products from developing countries, on the other hand,
could result in a decrease in demand for low-skill workers, possibly
leading to lowered wages or higher unemployment among them. The gap
between the rich and poor as a result will likely enlarge. Countries
such as the United States often have their strength in high-skill
high-technology industries and therefore will often experience increases
in income inequality when trading with developing countries. Autor et
al. (2012) described this phenomenon vividly in their 2012 study.
According to them, the increasing imports from developing countries,
especially China, in recent years caused "higher unemployment,
lower labor force participation, and reduced wages in local labor
markets that house import-competition manufacturing industries"
(Autor et al., 2012, 2121). A direct consequence of trade with China was
that many former manufacturing workers in labor-intensive industries
were left "unemployed for years, if not permanently" (Thoma,
2012, 1).
Although few studies have examined state-level income inequality,
economists have provided ample evidence that the increase of imports
from low-skill labor-abundant countries like China and India has led to
increases in wage inequality between low- and high-skill workers in the
United States (Galbraith & Liu, 2001; Manasse & Turrini, 2001;
Miller, 2001; Harrison, 2002; Feenstra & Hanson, 2003; Krugman,
2008; Autor et al., 2012). Based on this micro causal mechanism, we
might well conclude that international trade, especially trade with
developing countries like China, will lead to increases in income
inequality in American states that actively engage in such trade.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). FDI could influence income
inequality but there are divided opinions about which direction the
relationship runs. Jensen and Rosa (2007) point out two mechanisms
through which FDI could reduce inequality. First, the capital brought in
by foreign investors will likely compete with domestic capital for
labor. As a result, the demand for labor will increase, and the returns
to capital will decrease compared to returns to labor. Consequently, the
income gap between workers in general and the business firms will be
abridged. Secondly, if foreign companies primarily hire low-skill
workers, the demand of low-skill labor will increase, followed by an
increase in their wages. The gap between low-skill workers and other
members of the society will consequently decrease. Or, even if foreign
companies hire high-skill workers, the income gap between high-skill
workers and capital owners will still be abridged, although the gap
between low- and high-skill workers might increase.
Therefore, if the foreign investment primarily hires and benefits
low-skill workers, the gap between low-skill workers and other members
of the society will decrease, and the gap between capital owners and
workers in general will also be reduced, both of which will result in
lower income inequality. However, if the foreign investment primarily
hires and benefits high-skill workers, the effect of FDI on inequality
could be obscure: on the one hand, the demand for high-skill workers
will increase, which could lead to a closing gap between high-skill
workers and capital owners; on the other hand, the income gap between
low- and high-skill workers might increase. Weighing the two arguments
and considering the fact that companies do not only hire one type of
worker, we see that there is a good chance FDI could decrease income
inequality. Therefore, we hypothesize that states with more foreign
investment will likely have a lower level of income inequality.
Immigration. Scholars have long found that inequality rises in
resource-rich and immigrant-receiving countries, but decreases in
migrant-exporting countries (Williamson 1997; Hatton and Williamson
1998). This is because when large numbers of low-skill immigrants flow
into resource-rich countries, they could increase the supply of
low-skill labor and hence lower the average wages for low-skill workers
there. In the US, after the abolishment of the country quota system in
the 1960s, the demographics of immigrants into the country have changed
dramatically. As of 2010, more than half of the immigrants are from
Latin American countries and a third of the newly arrived immigrants are
immigrants entering illegally from Central America (Passel, 2005; Card,
2009; Camarota, 2012). Research has also shown that immigrants in the
United States on average earn less than native-born Americans and tend
to work in low-wage occupations (Borjas, 1994; Hanson, 2004). More
recently, Camarota (2012) finds that the median household income for
immigrants in 2011 is about 87 percent that of natives, and the median
household income for immigrants who arrived to the US after 2000 is only
76 percent that of native-born Americans.
Immigrants with low skills could increase the supply of low-skill
labor in the domestic labor market and therefore reduce the wages for
the low-skill workers in general. It is estimated that immigrant workers
coming to the United States between 1980 and 2000 reduced wages for
American high-school dropouts by 7.4 percent (Lerman, 1999; Borjas,
2004). Native low-skill workers in labor markets with a heavy immigrant
presence often experience the sharpest decrease in their wages (Topel,
1994).
Even though high-skill immigrants also exist, especially those who
possess high levels of education and stay to start their careers in the
United States, they might have contributed to rising income inequality
by joining the ranks of those at the higher end of the income
distribution. The highly-bifurcated skill sets of immigrants could
itself add to the polarization of the incomes between the rich and poor.
Alderson & Nielsen (2002), Atkinson (2003), Reed (2001), Lerman
(1999) and Card (2009) all find strong empirical evidence that
immigrants have contributed to inequality in the United States, even
though disagreements remain about the degree of the effect. (3)
In summary, economists and sociologists have examined the effect of
globalization on income inequality cross-nationally. By using data from
16 OECD countries, Alderson and Nielsen (2002) have even shown evidence
that globalization was one of the reasons income inequality had
increased in these countries since the 1970s. More specifically, they
find that trade, foreign direct investment, and to a lesser extent
migration all contribute to the resurgence of inequality in advanced
industrial societies.
Since the 1970s, transnational mobility of people, goods, services,
capital and information has shattered many barriers set by national
borders (Bosanceanu, 2009). United States has actively engaged in
globalization activities such as international trade and foreign
investment, as well as migration flows. In 2012, for example, the U.S.
imported an equivalent of 2.76 trillion dollars' worth of goods and
services and exported about 2.194 trillion dollars of goods and
services. In the same year, the U.S. received 157 trillion dollars'
investment from other countries and invested 328 trillion abroad. The
country also has a historically high level of immigrants, with
foreign-born individuals composing 13 percent of its total population.
However, thus far, little existing research has examined the effect of
globalization factors on state-level income inequality.
In this paper, we apply these theoretical arguments to the American
state context and test the following hypotheses. First, if a state
heavily engages in manufacturing imports or exports, it will experience
rising income inequality. Second, states that have a lot of foreign
investment will likely experience a decrease in income inequality.
Third, states that receive lots of immigrants could very possibly
experience an increase in income inequality because of the bifurcation
of immigrants' skills and their impact on the domestic labor
market.
State Politics, Policy and Income Inequality
Political and institutional factors can also influence income
inequality in the United States. In cross-national literature, scholars
have proposed the "power resource theory" to connect the
distribution of power in society with income distribution and
redistribution outcomes (Stephens, 1976; Korpi, 1978; Huber &
Stephens, 2001; Bradley et al., 2003; Huber et al., 2006). The core
thesis is that the political power of lower and working classes who
favor more distribution and redistribution will promote equal economic
outcomes. Empirically, scholars find that strong left parties and labor
unions represent the lower and working classes' interests, and
therefore contribute to more equal distributions through greater social
spending, more progressive taxes, higher wages for workers, and more
equally distributed social services (Sawyer, 1976; Tufte, 1980; Freeman,
1993; Western, 1995; Huber & Stephens, 2001; Bradley et al., 2003;
Card, Lemieux, & Riddell, 2003; Moller et al., 2003; Piketty, 2003;
Huber et al., 2006).
In the American context, scholars discover that the Democratic
party more often represents the interests of the lower and working
classes; and therefore, Democratic politicians are more likely to
produce policies that promote income equality. On the national level,
Bartels (20r(Y q[R]08) directly connects lower levels of income equality
to Democratic presidents. According to him, Democratic control of the
presidency leads to higher income growth for the poor and middle-class,
but Republican control of the presidency creates further divergence
between the income of the rich and poor. Under Republican presidents,
income tax cuts benefit the rich more than the poor, the federal estate
tax was gradually phased out and the real minimum wages decreased
substantially, all of which contributes to increasing income inequality
(Bartels, 2008, 197, 225).
There is also a positive relationship between de-unionization and
inequality in recent years. Unionization is an important way for workers
to bargain collectively for higher wages and better benefits, and
therefore could abridge the income gaps between the workers and their
employers However, unionization fell the most rapidly after the 1980s
and inequality rose at the same time period (Lemieux, 2008). Freeman
(1993) and Card (1992) find that de-unionization accounts for around 20
percent of the increase in wage inequality for US males in the 1980s,
while DiNardo et al. (1996) find that de-unionization accounts for a
third of the increase in the 90/50 gap between 1979 and 1988.
At the state level, Kelly and Witko (2012) have applied the power
resource theory to study state-level income inequality. They argue that
both state governments and the federal government could influence income
inequality through two mechanisms--distribution through the market and
redistribution through the government process. Although the federal
government has taken a larger responsibility in redistribution (i.e.,
the welfare system), states have assumed much more discretion in welfare
provisions after the 1996 welfare reform. In addition, state governments
could influence income distribution through economic policies such as
regulations on wages and salaries (e,g, minimum wage), union formation
and labor negotiation power, etc. Kelly and Witko (2012) discover that
income inequality tends to be lower in states with a liberal electorate
that supports a left party government, or states with a stronger union
presence.
Based on the power resource theory, we can conclude that states
with more liberal state governments and stronger labor unions will have
lower income inequality levels. At the federal level, Democratic
presidents should also be associated with lower inequality levels.
Other Explanations for Rising Inequality in America
Socioeconomic factors like economic growth, the size of the
manufacturing sector, the unemployed population, education levels, the
share of racial minorities in the population, and female labor force
participation have all been documented by scholarly literature to
influence income inequality (Kuznets, 1953; Kuznets, 1955; Dooley &
Gottschalk, 1985; Thurow, 1987; Treas, 1987; Rodwin & Sazanami,
1991; Gottschalk, 1997; Nielsen & Alderson, 1997; Bartels, 2005,
2009; Kelly & Witko, 2012). First of all, according to Kuznets
(1953, 1955), there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between
economic development and inequality. In other words, income inequality
increases and then decreases as the economy develops. Based on
Kuznets' prediction, inequality should have decreased since the
1970s, but surprisingly it increased substantially in the United States
and other developed countries. Therefore, scholars claim that the recent
increase of income inequality is a divergence at the right tail of the
Kuznets' inverted U-shape (Harrison & Bluestone, 1988; Noah,
2012). Furthermore, scholars like Bartels (2005, 2009) express concerns
that the rising income inequality in the United States is due to the
uneven spread of the benefits of economic growth across income groups.
Considering that the gains of economic growth disproportionately benefit
the top-income group, we can speculate a positive linear relationship
between economic development and income inequality after the 1970s in
the United States.
Second, as mentioned above, the manufacturing sector is
characterized by high productivity and collective bargaining power, and
therefore is a more equal sector compared to agriculture and service
sectors (Rodwin & Sazanami, 1991; Grant & Wallace, 1994; Benard
& Jensen, 1998). Using American county-level data, Nielsen and
Alderson (1997) indeed find that manufacturing employment has a negative
effect on inequality. Therefore, we posit a negative relationship
between the size of the manufacturing sector and state-level inequality.
Third, education levels of the population also influence income
inequality. Over the past three decades, the American education system
has not kept up with the technological revolution. As a result, the
demand for high-skill workers has grown faster than the supply, and
their income has grown substantially (Dooley & Gottschalk, 1985;
Gottschalk, 1997; Bartels, 2008). On the other hand, workers with low
levels of education have also failed to keep up with the technological
requirements of today's economy. Empirical research has shown
support for such a relationship. For instance, Crenshaw and Ameen (1994)
and Nielsen and Alderson (1997) find that the education level of the
population influences income inequality, with both high and low levels
of education leading to higher inequality. Based on the above argument,
I suggest that the shares of high- and low-educated population are both
positively related to inequality.
Fourth, as Kuznets (1955) argues, metropolitan areas inherently
contain greater inequality because of their greater social and economic
diversity. Therefore, we propose that the share of the urban population
will have a negative effect on income inequality.
Fifth, the income gap between white and black households has been
documented in previous literature (Nielsen & Alderson, 1997). Since
African Americans have lower mean incomes than whites, an increase in
the black population should be associated with greater dispersion in
overall state incomes. Indeed, Kelly and Witko (2012) find that income
inequality is higher in states with larger nonwhite populations.
Therefore, we anticipate a positive association between the black
population and state-level income inequality.
Sixth, Thurow (1987) predicts a positive relationship between
unemployment and income inequality, since a high unemployment rate
creates more people at the lower ends of the income distribution. From
this, we can posit a positive relationship between the size of the
unemployed population and inequality.
Lastly, conventional wisdom indicates that more women joining the
workforce could lead to widening family income gaps, because high-income
and high-educated women tend to marry high-income men. However, Nielsen
and Alderson (1997) and Treas (1978) show that female labor force
participation--especially the participation of low-income women--has an
equalizing effect on family income. We follow Nielsen and Alderson and
hypothesize that female labor force participation is negatively
associated with state-level income inequality.
Data and Methods
In order to test which factors explain income inequality, we
utilize pooled cross-sectional time-series (CSTS) data from the American
states from 1987-2004. We estimate state-level income inequality as a
function of three globalization variables--trade, FDI, and migration, as
well as a full set of political and socioeconomic controls that are
suggested to influence inequality.
Dependent Variable
Income inequality. We use Gini coefficients for state-level
disposable family income inequality as the measure of the dependent
variable. In the robustness check, we also use 90/10, 90/50, and 50/10
income ratios as measures for income inequality. Data on these measures
come from Guetzkow, Western, and Rosenfeld (2007) for the period from
1985 to 2003, as well as the author's update of their data from
2004 to 2009 by using the same procedures. These measures are based on
an income measure that includes wages, other earnings, and various
government transfers and benefits. Since the political and institutional
variables included in the models have implications for redistribution
(e.g., taxation and welfare policies), it is appropriate to measure
income inequality based on an income variable that includes a wide range
of income sources, including both wages and income from government
sources.
Independent Variables
Economic Openness
Trade. Since state-level importation data are not readily
available, we measure trade openness by the percentage of manufacturing
exportation in state gross products. This measure is highly correlated
with the total manufacturing trade (r = .79) as well as the total trade
measure (r = .8). State-level manufacturing exportation data are
collected from the Foreign Trade Division of the Department of Commerce
in the Census.
FDI. We use the total amount of FDI into the manufacturing sector
as a percentage of the state gross product as the measure of FDI,
considering that the manufacturing industry is the center of our
theoretical argument. Data on foreign direct investment are collected
from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Immigration. We use the percentage of foreign-born population as
part of the total population in each state as the measure of
immigration. (4) Data on foreign-born population are collected from
Current Population Surveys for the years 1996 to 2009; for other years,
we collect data from the decennial Census and use a linear interpolation
procedure to generate values for other years.
Power Resources
Based on the power resource theory, political power in favor of the
lower and working classes have a negative effect on income inequality.
We include three core independent variables to capture this left
political power.
Democratic presidents. Bartels (2008) suggests that a Democratic
presidency is an important indicator of left political power and
resulted in lower inequality in the United States. Therefore, we include
partisanship of the presidents as an independent variable, with 0
indicating a Republican president and 1 indicating a Democratic
president.
Left state government. Kelly and Witko (2012) find that both the
federal government and the state level government influence state-level
income inequality. We follow their tradition and use state government
liberalism to capture the left political power in state government. This
measure was created by Berry et al. (1998).
Union density. Union density, another measure of left political
power, measures the percentage of nonagricultural wage and salary
employees (including public-sector employees) who are union members.
Hirsch (2012) compiled data on union density by using a combination of
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS)
data.
Control Variables
Real GDP per capita growth. We use the real per capita income
growth rate as a measure of economic growth, and collect such data from
the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Manufacturing sector. We measure the size of the manufacturing
sector by the proportion of manufacturing products in the gross state
product. We collect data on this measure from the BEA.
College graduates. We include the percentage of college graduates
as a share in a state's population as a control. Data on college
graduates are collected from the Census.
Urban population. We include percentage of urban population as a
control variable and data on this measure are collected from the Census.
Black population. We include the percentage of the black population
as a control variable to estimate the effect of minority population on
inequality. (5) Data are collected from the Census.
Unemployment. We include the state unemployment rate as a control
variable and data on this variable are collected from the Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
Female labor force participation. Following Nielsen and Alderson,
we include female labor force participation as a control variable, and
have collected data on this variable from the BLS.
Model Specification
The panel unit root analyses show evidence that state-level income
inequality is a non-stationary process. Therefore, we use the dynamic
specifications of the Error Correction Model (ECM) by modeling the
first-order change in income inequality as a function of lagged income
inequality, a lagged term and a first-order difference term of all the
right-hand variables (De Boef, 2001; De Boef & Keele, 2008). An
advantage of the ECM is that it captures both the short- and long-run
effects of the independent variables on income inequality; in addition,
the ECM helps minimize the potential of spurious regressions with the
presence of non-stationary time-series data (De Boef & Granato,
1997). I also apply panel-corrected standard errors (PCSEs) to correct
panel heteroskedasticity and contemporaneous correlation issues (Beck
& Katz, 1995; Beck & Katz, 1996).
Empirical Results
In Table 1, we present the multivariate cross-sectional and
time-series (CSTS) estimates for three models when using the Gini
coefficient as the dependent variable. In the first model, we include
only the control variables; in the second model, we add the three
political independent variables (Left state government, union density,
and Democratic president), and in the full model (3), we also include
three globalization measures-trade, FDI and immigration. Turning to
these results, all three models show that the lagged Gini coefficient
has a significant and negative effect on the dependent variable, which
indicates that a higher state-level inequality in the current time
period leads to decreases in inequality in the next time period;
therefore, state-level income inequality is self-correcting on the state
level.
Turning to the political independent variables, we can see that
Model (2) and (3) show consistent findings.
[DELTA] left state government power has a negative and significant
coefficient (b = -0.012 in both models), indicating that left state
government power has an immediate negative effect on income inequality.
In other words, a one-unit increase in left state government power this
year will result in a 0.012 unit decrease in the dependent variable
(i.e., [DELTA] Gini coefficient) in the following year. To put it in
context, Gini coefficient has a range from 27.8 to 48.5 with an average
value of 37.5. In Model (3), after controlling for globalization
factors, left state government power also has a negative and significant
long-term effect. In keeping with De Boef and Keele (2008), we calculate
the long-term effect as -0.01. (6) In other words, in the long run, left
state government power could also decrease income inequality.
Union density is also shown to have a negative short- and long-run
effect on [DELTA] Gini coefficient in both Model (2) and (3). By using
Model (3) as an example, both AUnion density (b = -0.197) and [Union
density.sub.t-1] (b = -0.062) have a negative and significant
coefficient. Therefore, the short-run effect of union density is -0.197,
indicating that a one-unit increase in union density this year will
result in a 0.197 unit of decrease in Gini coefficient. Again, the
average value for Gini coefficient is 37.5, and union density varies
from 2.8 to 38.7 in all state years. The long-run effect of union
density is -0.127. The evidence shows that states with a stronger labor
union presence will experience decreased inequality in both a short and
long run.
At the federal level, Democratic presidency also turns out to have
a negative and significant long-run effect on income inequality. The
long-run effect is calculated as -2.158. In other words, when a
Democratic President is in office, American states will on average have
-2.158 points lower Gini coefficient in a long term. All three political
variables (left state government power, union density, and Democratic
presidency) all provide solid evidence for the power resource theory.
Political power representing lower and working classes in the United
States can also lower income inequality, just like in European
countries.
How about globalization factors? Surprisingly, out of the three key
indicators of globalization, only international migration has a
significant effect. As one can see, both [DELTA] Immigration (b = 0.274)
and [Immigration.sub.t-1] (b = 0.084) have a positive and significant
effect on the dependent variable. Again, based on De Boef and Keele
(2008), the short-run effect of immigration is reflected by the
coefficient of [DELTA] Immigration, 0.274, which indicates that a
one-unit increase in foreign-born population this year increases the
Gini coefficient by about 0.274 in the next year. Using DeBoef and
Keele's (2008) approach for measuring long-term effects, we
calculate the long-term effect of immigration on the Gini coefficient as
0.172. (7)
Turning to the control variables, these three models also show
consistent results. The size of the manufacturing industry has a
negative and highly significant effect on inequality in the long run
(although in the short-run, it seems to have a weakly significant
positive effect). The size of the highly-educated population (i.e.,
percentage of college graduates) has a positive and significant long-run
effect on inequality. The size of the Black population has a positive
and significant effect on inequality in the long run as well, and female
labor force participation could decrease income inequality in the short
run and this effect is also statistically significant. All these effects
are consistent across three models and within our expectations.
The findings from Model (1) and (2) are largely consistent with our
expectation with only two exceptions. First, manufacturing FDI and trade
do not seem to significantly influence the state-level Gini coefficient.
Secondly, different from what previous literature has suggested, we find
that Democratic presidents and percentage of Democratic House
Representatives are both associated with a potential to increase
state-level income inequality; however, Democratic Senators tend to
reduce state-level income inequality. In other words, the hypothesis on
the Democratic Party's reducing income inequality only works on the
Senate level on a national basis--not that of the House or the
President.
To test the robustness of the findings, we have run another set of
analyses, in which we use the 90/10, 90/50 and 50/10 income ratios as
the dependent variables. The 90/10 income ratio measures the relative
income between the top 10th percentile and the lowest 10th percentile
income groups in each state. The 90/50 income ratio measures the
relative income between the top 10th percentile and the 50th percentile
income groups, and the 50/10 income ratio captures the relative income
ratio between the 50th percentile and the lowest 10th percentile income
groups. All three income ratios can be used to capture income inequality
between certain income groups. Turning to the results in Table 2, one
can see that most of the findings still hold. In addition, FDI and trade
do significantly influence income differentials between income groups.
As one can see from Model (1) of Table 2 which has the 90/10 income
ratio as the dependent variable, [DELTA]FDI, [Trade.sub.t-1] and
[Immigration.sub.t-1] all have significant effects on the 90/10 income
ratio. More specifically, FDI has a negative short-run effect on the
income ratio between the 90th and 10th income percentiles. A one-unit
increase in FDI this year will result in a 0.004 unit decrease in the
90/10 income ratio in the following year. Both trade and immigration
have a positive and significant effect on the 90/10 income ratio in the
long run. The long-run effect is calculated as 0.028 (i.e., 0.015/0.544)
for trade and 0.042 (i.e., 0.023/0.544) for immigration. Among the power
resource variables, union density and Democratic president both have a
negative long-run effect on the 90/10 income ratio. The long-run effect
is -0.004 for union density and -0.520 for a Democratic president. Among
the control variables, the size of manufacturing and female labor force
participation both have negative long-term effects, and percentage of
college graduates and unemployment rate both have a positive long-term
effect on the 90/10 income ratio.
Turning to Model (2) in which we use the 90/50 income ratio as the
dependent variable, it turns out that neither FDI nor trade in the
manufacturing sector has a significant effect on the 90/50 income gap.
Immigration has a positive and significant effect on the 90/50
income ratio in the long run. In the long run, immigration increases the
90/50 income ratio by 0.007 (=0.005/0.672). Among the political resource
variables, again, union density and a Democratic president both have a
negative long-run effect on the 90/50 income ratio, and the long-run
effect is 0.010 for union density and 0.085 for a Democratic president.
Among the control variables, economic growth has a negative short- and
long-run effect that is weakly significant; college graduates have a
positive long-run effect; the size of the African American population
has a negative long-term effect that is weakly significant. Female labor
force participation has a negative short-run effect that is weakly
significant and a highly significant negative long-run effect.
When we use the 50/10 income ratio as the dependent variable, FDI
again turns out to have a negative short- and long-run effect; a
one-unit increase in FDI this year will result in a 0.001 unit decrease
in the 50/10 income ratio next year; FDI also has a negative long-run
effect which is calculated as 0.002. Immigration has a positive long-run
effect, which is calculated as 0.006. Among the political resource
variables, only a Democratic president has a negative and significant
long-run effect on the 50/10 income ratio. Among the control variables,
the size of manufacturing has a negative long-run effect that is weakly
significant; unemployment rate has a positive and significant long-run
effect.
Overall, all the results show consistent evidence that the
globalization factors indeed have an impact on income inequality in the
U.S. Immigration has a strong positive effect on income inequality
across the board. Trade has also contributed to the enlargement of the
income gap between the rich and poor (i.e., the 90/10 income ratio).
FDI, however, seems to have a negative and significant effect on the
income gaps between the rich and poor, as well as the gap between the
middle class and the poor (i.e., 90/10 and 50/10 income ratios).
A few political resource variables turn out to influence income
inequality in the United States. For instance, a Democratic president
has a negative effect on income inequality across the board. (8) Union
density also decreases inequality measured by the Gini coefficient, the
90/10 and 90/50 income ratios. Left state government power depresses the
general income inequality measured by Gini coefficient.
Summary and Conclusion
This study centers on exploring the determinants of state-level
income inequality, with a focus on the globalization factors that have
been missing in previous literature and the political power resource
factors. There are several interesting findings from this study, as we
have just seen.
In addition to what we have indicated, among the control variables,
generally speaking, a state with a larger manufacturing sector, a more
evenly educated state population, higher levels of urbanization, a lower
unemployment rate and a higher female labor force participation will
have a lower income inequality.
Atkinson (2003) argues that income distribution is a fairly
complicated phenomenon and that a single explanation cannot suffice for
all regions and time periods. Globalization factors such as trade, FDI
and migration were largely missing in previous studies of income
inequality at the American state level. This project fills this gap in
the literature and studies the effect of globalization on state-level
inequality in different state political environments. Findings of this
paper indeed show that the rising income inequality is caused by more
than one factor. Globalization, political and demographic environments
of a state all serve as credible explanations for the rising income
inequality in the United States, at least from my exploration of
inequality at the state level. More than anything, scholars interested
in income inequality should consider a comprehensive list of
explanations while studying determinants of rising inequality. Although
this paper considers a relatively comprehensive list of explanations for
inequality, it is not without limitations. For example, we did not
directly consider the role of technology. The extent to which
non-labor-intensive technology penetrates the state economy should have
an impact on job displacement for low-skill workers. However, due to
data limitation, we only considered this impact indirectly through the
education level of the state population. Future studies are encouraged
to examine more closely how technology plays a role in income
inequality.
What are the political and policy implications of these findings?
Under globalization, flows of labor (migration) have had and will
continue to have an important effect on the increasing economic
disparity in the United States. Considering that high levels of income
inequality could cause social conflicts and instability, the U.S.
government may want to consider policies to reduce the gap between
low-skill immigrants and other members of the society. American states
could try to incorporate immigrants into a wider range of social safety
net and possibly remove work barriers for legal low-skill immigrants in
order to close the income gap between low-income immigrants and other
members of the society. The government may also consider adopting
measures to encourage admissions of high-skill immigrants instead of
low-skill immigrants.
Those who wish to stimulate the economy, create more job
opportunities and reduce income inequality will want to encourage FDI
into the United States. Since trade hurts the low-skill manufacturing
workers, it is not a good idea to liberalize trade completely
considering that trade in the manufacturing sector results in rising
income inequality. Although trade openness contributes to more equalized
income distributions among countries, it raises income inequality
domestically in the United States. Therefore, the U.S. needs to be
cautious when liberalizing trade with other countries. The bottom line
is that both the national and state governments need to bear in mind
some of the detrimental consequences of globalization on domestic
economic outcome and consider potential policy solutions before fully
embracing it.
Second, this project takes a panoramic view of globalization and
examines whether or not trade, FDI and immigration have a different
effect on state-level income inequality. In the US, there are divided
opinions about globalization, with supporters of the Washington
Consensus/ neoliberalism in favor of liberalization of trade, FDI and
interest rates, yet anti-globalization individuals dread the negative
social and economic consequences resulting from globalization. Results
of this paper show that at least some aspects of globalization and
economic openness increase the income disparities in the United States,
but not all aspects of economic openness do that. By providing answers
to whether or not globalization increases domestic inequality, this
paper could lend some insight to the debate surrounding globalization.
National and state governments in the U.S. could use some caution at
least while deciding whether or not to open up the rest of the world.
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Ping Xu
University of Rhode Island *
* author email: pingxu@uri.edu
(1) As a matter of fact, state governments do have a basket of
policy tools at their disposal that could influence levels of trade,
foreign investment and immigration (Krueger and Xu 2015). For instance,
states can use corporate tax policies to attract international business
and capital into their states instead of neighboring states. Washington,
for example, charges no corporate tax, but Pennsylvania charges a 9.9
percent corporate tax rate. States such as Arizona and Mississippi
mandate all businesses to check their employees' status and work
eligibility with the E-verify programs, while many other states do not
have such a requirement written in law. All these different state
policies will influence the levels of trade, FDI and immigration in the
state.
(2) Since countries often use different income definitions and the
units could vary from individual to family or even household, it is
extremely difficult to obtain comparable data on inequality across
countries. This data consistency issue has been notorious for
researchers interested in studying income inequality cross-nationally.
(3) Card (2009) finds that immigration explains about 5 percent of
the increase of the wage inequality; Lerman (1999) and Atkinson (2003)
argue that it explains 10 percent of the growth in earnings inequality;
Reed (2001) suggests that immigration explains about 25-40 percent of
the regional variance in the growth of Gini between 1969 and 1997.
(4) This measure not only includes permanent resident immigrants
and naturalized citizens, but also temporary legal foreign-born
residents and undocumented immigrants.
(5) We have replaced Black Population with Nonwhite population in
the model and re-run the analyses. The results remain unchanged.
(6) The long-term effect can be calculated based on the coefficient
of Left state government [power.sub.t-1] (b = -0.005) and the
coefficient of [Gini coefficient.sub.t-1] (b = -0.487):
-0.005/-(-0.487)=-0.01.
(7) Following DeBoef and Keele (2008), the long-term effect of
immigration is: Long term effect = (0.084)/-(-0.487) = 0.172.
(8) One may be curious if total trade and total FDI have the same
effects as manufacturing trade and FDI on state-level income inequality.
I have run the same sets of models with total trade (measured by total
amount of export as a percentage of state gross products), total FDI
(measured by total amount of FDI as a percentage of state gross
products) and immigration. These models have shown similar results and
consistent findings. Statistical results of these models can be obtained
by contacting the author: pingxu@uri.edu
TABLE 1: ECONOMIC OPENNESS, POWER RESOURCES,
AND INCOME INEQUALITY IN AMERICAN STATES, 1987-2004
Model (1)
Coeff. (SE)
Gini [Coefficient.sub.t-1] -.329 *** (.036)
[DELTA] FDI
[FDI.sub.t-1]
[DELTA] Trade
[Trade.sub.t-1]
[DELTA] Immigration
[Immigration.sub.t-1]
[DELTA] Left state government power
Left state government [power.sub.t-1]
[DELTA] Union density
Union [density.sub.t-1]
[DELTA] Democratic President
Democratic [President.sub.t-1]
[DELTA] Per capita growth .030 (.035)
Per capita [growth.sub.t-1] .025 (.050)
[DELTA] % Manufacture .116 * (.059)
% [Manufacture.sub.t-1] -.027 ** (.009)
[DELTA] % College graduates .001 (.000)
% College [graduates.sub.t-1] .001 *** (.000)
[DELTA] % Urban Population .436 (.301)
% Urban [Population.sub.t-1] -.007+ (.004)
[DELTA] % Black -.841 * (.423)
% [Black.sub.t-1] .024 *** (.005)
[DELTA] Unemployment rate .079 (.093)
Unemployment [rate.sub.t-1] .014 (.051)
[DELTA] Female labor force -.136 ** (.043)
participation
Female labor force -.024 (.021)
[participation.sub.t-1]
Constant 12.191 *** (1.913)
N 1550
R-Square .1783
Wald Chi-Square 108.92
Model (2)
Coeff. (SE)
Gini [Coefficient.sub.t-1] -.382 *** (.037)
[DELTA] FDI
[FDI.sub.t-1]
[DELTA] Trade
[Trade.sub.t-1]
[DELTA] Immigration
[Immigration.sub.t-1]
[DELTA] Left state government power -.012 ** (.004)
Left state government [power.sub.t-1] .000 (.002)
[DELTA] Union density -.082 * (.035)
Union [density.sub.t-1] -.064 *** (.010)
[DELTA] Democratic President .057 (.352)
Democratic [President.sub.t-1] -.466 * (.227)
[DELTA] Per capita growth .026 (.032)
Per capita [growth.sub.t-1] .038 (.047)
[DELTA] % Manufacture .099+ (.056)
% [Manufacture.sub.t-1] -.027 *** (.008)
[DELTA] % College graduates .001 + (.000)
% College [graduates.sub.t-1] .001 *** (.000)
[DELTA] % Urban Population .359 (.274)
% Urban [Population.sub.t-1] .002 (.004)
[DELTA] % Black -.375 (.391)
% [Black.sub.t-1] .010* (.005)
[DELTA] Unemployment rate .158+ (.086)
Unemployment [rate.sub.t-1] .130 * (.282)
[DELTA] Female labor force -.137 *** (.282)
participation
Female labor force -.031 (.034)
[participation.sub.t-1]
Constant 14.332 *** (1.832)
N 1550
R-Square .2194
Wald Chi-Square 144.61
Model (3)
Coeff. (SE)
Gini [Coefficient.sub.t-1] -.487 *** (.050)
[DELTA] FDI .004 (.003)
[FDI.sub.t-1] -.001 (.005)
[DELTA] Trade .074 (.064)
[Trade.sub.t-1] .016 (.018)
[DELTA] Immigration .274 *** (.081)
[Immigration.sub.t-1] .084 *** (.017)
[DELTA] Left state government power -.012 * (.005)
Left state government [power.sub.t-1] -.005 * (.002)
[DELTA] Union density -.197 *** (.057)
Union [density.sub.t-1] -.062 *** (.013)
[DELTA] Democratic President .032 (.238)
Democratic [President.sub.t-1] -1.051 *** (.204)
[DELTA] Per capita growth -.048 (.034)
Per capita [growth.sub.t-1] -.038 (.054)
[DELTA] % Manufacture .119+ (.065)
% [Manufacture.sub.t-1] -.016+ (.009)
[DELTA] % College graduates .000 (.000)
% College [graduates.sub.t-1] .001 *** (.000)
[DELTA] % Urban Population .699 (.602)
% Urban [Population.sub.t-1] -.015 ** (.005)
[DELTA] % Black -.060 (.438)
% [Black.sub.t-1] .007+ (.004)
[DELTA] Unemployment rate .056 (.107)
Unemployment [rate.sub.t-1] .062 (.054)
[DELTA] Female labor force -.201 *** (.051)
participation
Female labor force -.061 * (.029)
[participation.sub.t-1]
Constant 22.823 *** (2.215)
N 815
R-Square .2964
Wald Chi-Square 466.28
Significance levels: + 0.10 level,
* 0.05 level, ** 0.01 level, *** 0.001 level
TABLE 2: ECONOMIC OPENNESS, POWER RESOURCES, AND
INCOME INEQUALITY IN AMERICAN STATES, 1987-2009
(1) 90/10
Coeff. (SE)
Gini [Coefficient.sub.t-1] -.544 *** (.069)
[DELTA] FDI -.004 *** (.001)
[FDI.sub.t-1] -.001 (.002)
[DELTA] Trade -.030 (.029)
[Trads.sub.t-1] .015 * (.007)
[DELTA] Immigration .077 (.049)
[Immigration.sub.t-1] .023 *** (.005)
[DELTA] Left state government power .001 (.002)
Left state government power -.000 (.001)
[DELTA] Union density .001 (.027)
Union [density.sub.t-1] -.002 *** (.003)
[DELTA] Democratic President .017 (.058)
Democratic [President.sub.t-1] -.283 *** (.052)
[DELTA] Per capita growth -.013 (.014)
Per capita [growth.sub.t-1] -.029 (.020)
[DELTA] % Manufacture .031 (.042)
% [Manufacture.sub.t-1] -.010+ (.006)
[DELTA] % College graduates .000 (.000)
% College [graduates.sub.t-1] .000 * (.000)
[DELTA] % Urban Population .210 (.184)
% Urban [Population.sub.t-1] -.001 (.002)
[DELTA] % Black -.115 (.120)
% Black t-1 .001 (.003)
[DELTA] Unemployment rate .000 (.040)
Unemployment [rate.sub.t-1] .071 * (.029)
[DELTA] Female labor force -.010 (.020)
participation
Female labor force -.024 *** (.007)
[participation.sub.t-1]
Constant 5.129 *** (0.663)
N 815
R-Square .3058
Wald Chi-Square 432.21
(2) 90/50
Coeff. (SE)
Gini [Coefficient.sub.t-1] -.672 *** (.056)
[DELTA] FDI -.000 (.000)
[FDI.sub.t-1] .000 (.000)
[DELTA] Trade .000 (.006)
[Trads.sub.t-1] .002 (.001)
[DELTA] Immigration .014 (.010)
[Immigration.sub.t-1] .005 *** (.001)
[DELTA] Left state government power .000 (.000)
Left state government power .000 (.000)
[DELTA] Union density -.004 (.004)
Union [density.sub.t-1] -.007 *** (.001)
[DELTA] Democratic President .010 (.014)
Democratic [President.sub.t-1] -.057 *** (.012)
[DELTA] Per capita growth -.005+ (.003)
Per capita [growth.sub.t-1] -.007+ (.004)
[DELTA] % Manufacture .004 (.007)
% [Manufacture.sub.t-1] -.001 (.001)
[DELTA] % College graduates .000 (.000)
% College [graduates.sub.t-1] .000 *** (.000)
[DELTA] % Urban Population .024 (.037)
% Urban [Population.sub.t-1] .000 (.000)
[DELTA] % Black -.042+ (.024)
% Black t-1 .000 (.001)
[DELTA] Unemployment rate .001 (.007)
Unemployment [rate.sub.t-1] .006 (.004)
[DELTA] Female labor force -.006+ (.004)
participation
Female labor force -.009 *** (.002)
[participation.sub.t-1]
Constant 1.924 *** (.167)
N 815
R-Square .3488
Wald Chi-Square 389.12
(3) 50/10
Coeff. (SE)
Gini [Coefficient.sub.t-1] -.625 *** (.074)
[DELTA] FDI -.001 *** (.000)
[FDI.sub.t-1] -.001+ (.000)
[DELTA] Trade -.014 (.010)
[Trads.sub.t-1] .006 (.003)
[DELTA] Immigration .011 (011)
[Immigration.sub.t-1] .004 * (.002)
[DELTA] Left state government power .000 (.001)
Left state government power -.000 (.000)
[DELTA] Union density .006 (.010)
Union [density.sub.t-1] -.002 (.001)
[DELTA] Democratic President .006 (.015)
Democratic [President.sub.t-1] -.064 *** (.013)
[DELTA] Per capita growth -.001 (.004)
Per capita [growth.sub.t-1] -.006 (.006)
[DELTA] % Manufacture .006 (011)
% [Manufacture.sub.t-1] -.005+ (.003)
[DELTA] % College graduates .000 (.000)
% College [graduates.sub.t-1] -.000 (.000)
[DELTA] % Urban Population .081 (.062)
% Urban [Population.sub.t-1] -.001 (.001)
[DELTA] % Black -.019 (.042)
% Black t-1 .000 (.001)
[DELTA] Unemployment rate -.003 (.014)
Unemployment [rate.sub.t-1] .029 * (.012)
[DELTA] Female labor force .003 (.007)
participation
Female labor force -.001 (.003)
[participation.sub.t-1]
Constant 2.055 *** (.352)
N 815
R-Square .3410
Wald Chi-Square 720.11
Significance levels: + 0.10 level, * 0.05 level,
** 0.01 level, *** 0.001 level
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