文章基本信息
- 标题：UNIDADES REPRESENTATIVAS DE PRODUCCIÓN DE CEREALES. PANORAMA ECONÓMICO 2009-2014. ESTADO DE GUANAJUATO.
- 本地全文：下载
- 作者：José María Salas González ; Leticia Myriam Sagarnaga Villegas ; Gerardo Gómez González 等
- 期刊名称：Revista Mexicana de Agronegocios
- 印刷版ISSN：1405-9282
- 出版年度：2013
- 卷号：33
- 页码：483-494
- 语种：Spanish
- 出版社：Sociedad Mexicana de Administración Agropecuaria A.C.
- 摘要：The main goal of this analysis is to evaluate the economic viability of Representative Cereal Farms in the Mexican State of Guanajuato, in order to support a differentiated agricultural policy enhancing process and to boost the development of the agricultural sector in this Mexican state. Thirteen URP were located in different regions within the state and modeled under the 2009 agricultural settings, overall, under actual representative technologies of production and available irrigation systems. A panel farm process was applied to obtain the information required to the financial analysis for each URP. With the information obtained from the panel discussion, the historical risk (yields) reported by farmers, the projection prices calculated by FAPRI/SAGARPA/UACh 2010 and FAPRI 2011, and under the current support programs, different scenarios for economic viability were modeled. Economic key variables were chosen for the financial analysis (agricultural year 2009-2010) such as production cost, cash net income, and equilibrium point. For the economic analysis (2010-2014) the variables were: cash net income, ending cash reserves, nominal net worth, real net worth, economic viability, probability of negative ending cash reserves and probability of real net worth loosing. The financial and economic variables were estimated through the econometric program MexSim©. The results for the basis year analysis (2009) showed that most of the URP worked under the equilibrium point and only eight URP had positive net income. For the 2010-2014 period, the URP economic viability improved; seven URP were economically viable; and the rest of the URP needed governmental support to continue working. These results might be useful to design specific policies and tools for each kind of producer.
- 关键词：Economic viability; financial viability; profitability; production cost. Viabilidad económica; Viabilidad financiera; Rentabilidad; Costos de Producción.
