期刊名称：International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management
印刷版ISSN：1756-8692
电子版ISSN：1756-8706
出版年度：2019
卷号：11
期号：2
页码：289-307
DOI：10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2017-0110
出版社：Emerald Group Publishing Limited
摘要：The development of models that allows the evaluation and prediction of erosion processes is an important tool for the management and planning of coastal systems. Mangrove forests systems are under threat by the impacts of erosion, which is also intensified by human activity (and aggravated in the scenarios of global warming and climate change). The purpose of this paper is to develop a model of geographic information systems (GIS) that can be used for any estuary area, but it can also be used for mangroves.,This paper uses georeferentiation which is defined as a set of parameters that best characterize the mangrove areas: elevation (m); geomorphology; geology; land cover; anthropogenic activities; distance to the coastline (m) and maximum tidal range (m). Three different methods are used to combine the various vulnerability parameters, namely, DRASTIC index, analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and square root of the geometric mean.,The three approaches presented in this work show different types evaluating vulnerability to erosion, highlighting a stronger overvaluation of the areas presented with a high vulnerability, through the use of DRASTIC index when compared with two other approaches. The use of the AHP shows similarity to the square root of the geometric mean model, but the AHP also presents a higher percentage of vulnerable areas classified as having medium to very high vulnerability. On the other hand, the use of square root of the geometric mean led to a higher percentage of areas classified as having low and very low vulnerability.,These three qualitative models, based on a cognitive approach, using the set of parameters defined in this research, are a good tool for the spatial distribution of erosion in different mangroves in the world.,Global warming and climate change scenarios require adaptation and mitigation options supported by science-based strategies and solutions.
关键词：Climate change;Geographical information system;Vulnerability;Coastal erosion;Mangroves;Population displacement
