摘要：The objective of this study is to present an integrated stochastic approach for quantifying the risk of oil spill in marine waters and adjacent coasts. This was achieved via the effective cooperation between the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) and the Bogazici University (BU) within the framework of a bilateral joint research project. The proposed methodology integrates four models: (1) a physics-based hydrodynamic model (HYM) which computes the spatial distribution of surface water currents as the main driving force for oil transport, (2) an expert-based accident assessment model ( AAM ) to compute the frequency, location and characteristics of expected oil spills, (3) a physics-based oil spill model ( OSM ) which computes the propagation and fate of the oil slick, and (4) an expert-based impact assessment model (IAM) to compute the distribution of coastal impact due to oil contamination. The model is applied to two pilot areas: the Saronicos Gulf, Greece and Izmir Bay, Turkey. The flow fields in these areas were determined by the HYM for a large number of wind scenarios, based on which the transport and weathering of an oil slick were computed by the OSM . The most probable oil spill locations were identified by AAM based on the bathymetry, the maritime traffic and the currents. Finally, the IAM was applied to draw Coastal Oil Impact Maps in the regions of interest. Emphasis was placed on the presentation of the risk of oil reaching the coastline. Environmental sensitivity and economic importance were taken into account by assigning index values to all coastal cells.
