期刊名称：International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
电子版ISSN：2146-4553
出版年度：2019
卷号：9
期号：4
页码：103-109
DOI：10.32479/ijeep.7566
出版社：EconJournals
摘要：One of the major decision problems facing any electrical supply undertaking is the forecasting of peak power demand. Aproblem therefore arises when
an estimate of future electricity demand is not known to prepare for impending possible increase in electricity demand. To overcome this problem,
it is therefore imperative to evaluate the precise amount of energy required for a sustainable power supply to customers. In line with this goal, this
study established a mathematical model of regression analysis using pseudo-inverse matrix (PIM) method for the assessment of the historical data of
covenant University’s electric energy consumption. This method predicts a more accurate and reliable future energy requirement for the community,
with special consideration for the next one decade. The accuracy of prediction based on the use of PIM method is compared with the forecast result
of the least squares model, commonly used by engineers in making long-term forecast. The error analysis result from the mean absolute percentage
error and the root mean square error (RMSE) performed on the two models using mean absolute deviation shows that the PIM is the most accurate
of the models. Though this method is examined using a University community, it can be further extended to cover the whole country, provided the
historical data of the country’s past electric energy consumptions is available.
关键词：Error Analysis; Historical Data; Linear Regression; Peak Demand; Pseudo-inverse Matrix
其他关键词：error analysis; historical data; linear regression; peak demand; pseudo-inverse matrix.
