期刊名称：International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
电子版ISSN：2146-4553
出版年度：2019
卷号：9
期号：4
页码：263-272
DOI：10.32479/ijeep.7785
出版社：EconJournals
摘要：This study aims to develop autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict the solar, wind, spot and options pricing over the
next 2 years, with historical data being used in a univariate manner to understand market behaviour in terms of trends. The assessment is made in
the context of the Australian National Electricity Market (ANEM). The ARIMA models predict the future values of the monthly solar, wind, spot
and options prices for various Australian states using time-series data from January 2006 to March 2018. The results show increases from 30.46% to
40.42% for the spot electricity prices and from 14.80% to 15.13% for the options electricity prices in the ANEM with a 2-year horizon. The results
further show that wind prices are expected to increase by an average of 5.43%. However, the results also show that the average solar electricity prices
will decrease by 67.7%.
关键词：Electricity Pricing; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model; Forecasting
