摘要：Pollutant emissions in river basins may be subject to change. How can we succeed in predicting future pollutant emissions and risks? The approach presented here is based on the hypothesis that the existing scenarios on developments in society may provide useful indications on future pollutants. To begin with, the results of four societal scenario-based analyses showed that some developments are directly connected to consumption and the emission of specific substances. Second, it appeared that the effects of other development scenarios are more complex, such as those associated with climate change. Quantitative statements with regard to the implications of such scenarios on future pollutants can be particularly difficult. A third important group of changes are technological developments. Frequently observed changes in this respect are substitutions of problematic substances by substances with a similar structure. When the pollutant consequences of future development scenarios are taken together it will be possible to explore political, societal, or technical mitigation efforts which can be undertaken now or in the near future to counteract the effects of developments that are considered as extremely hazardous for man and the environment. Thereby, a careful monitoring of developments in society can help to develop appropriate strategies which should include preemptive emission and impact reduction efforts. Finally, we developed recommendations how to manage future emerging pollutants in river basins.
