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文章基本信息

  • 标题:Modelling Extinction of Polio Transmission Agents by Stochastic Differential Equations
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:J. G. Olawuwo ; Olabisi O. Ugbebor
  • 期刊名称:Annals. Computer Science Series
  • 印刷版ISSN:1583-7165
  • 电子版ISSN:2065-7471
  • 出版年度:2018
  • 卷号:16
  • 期号:2
  • 页码:161-163
  • 出版社:Mirton Publishing House, Timisoara
  • 摘要:

    Eradicating poliomyelitis has been a major health concern to stakeholders the world over. In this study, we have developed a pair of stochastic equations for the extinction probability functions in two types of human transmission agents namely: infectives (types 1) and carriers (type 2). By solving the equations, the result shows that with only one asymptomatic carrier in a population, eradication is possible when (ß2221+µ)2>4ß22µ where ßij is the Poisson rate at which type i transmission agent produces type j transmission agent and µ is the mean infectious period of the asymptomatic carriers.

  • 关键词:Extinction Probability; Polio Free Certification; Transmission Agents; Poisson Rate; Conditional Probability.
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