摘要：Delayed reporting of health data may hamper the early detection of infectious diseases in surveillance systems. Furthermore, combining multiple data streams, e.g. aiming at improving a system's sensitivity, can be challenging. In this study, we used a Bayesian framework where the result is presented as the value of evidence, i.e. the likelihood ratio for the evidence under outbreak versus baseline conditions. Based on a historical data set of routinely collected cattle mortality events, we evaluated outbreak detection performance (sensitivity, time to detection, in-control run length) under the Bayesian approach among three scenarios: presence of delayed data reporting, but not accounting for it; presence of delayed data reporting accounted for; and absence of delayed data reporting (i.e. an ideal system). Performance on larger and smaller outbreaks was compared with a classical approach, considering syndromes separately or combined. We found that the Bayesian approach performed better than the classical approach, especially for the smaller outbreaks. Furthermore, the Bayesian approach performed similarly well in the scenario where delayed reporting was accounted for to the scenario where it was absent. We argue that the value of evidence framework may be suitable for surveillance systems with multiple syndromes and delayed reporting of data.
