摘要：This study aims to delineate the temporal relations between body mass index (BMI) and insulin in childhood and their impact on adult metabolic syndrome (MetS) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).The longitudinal cohort consisted of 609 whites and 339 blacks who had BMI and fasting insulin measured twice in childhood (mean age = 10.5 years at baseline and 15.9 years at follow-up). Incident MetS and T2DM were identified in adulthood (mean age = 30.5 years). Cross-lagged panel and mediation analysis models were used. After adjusting for age, race, gender, and follow-up years, the cross-lagged path coefficient of BMI → insulin (β = 0.326, p < 0.001) was significantly greater than that of insulin → BMI (β = -0.023, p = 0.207) in childhood, with p < 0.001 for the difference in βs. The path coefficient for BMI → insulin was significantly greater in MetS than in non-MetS groups (0.510 vs 0.190, p < 0.001), and greater in hyperglycemia than in normoglycemia groups (0.503 vs 0.285, p = 0.026). The mediation effect of childhood insulin on the BMI-MetS and BMI-hyperglycemia associations was estimated at 19.2% (p < 0.001) and 18.3% (p < 0.001), respectively. These findings provide evidence that higher BMI levels precede hyperinsulinemia during childhood, and this one-directional relation plays a significant role in the development of MetS and T2DM in adult life.
