期刊名称：IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
印刷版ISSN：1755-1307
电子版ISSN：1755-1315
出版年度：2019
卷号：252
期号：4
页码：1-12
DOI：10.1088/1755-1315/252/4/042019
出版社：IOP Publishing
摘要：The research on the present situation and forecast of the supply of animal products in Sichuan Province is conducive to accelerating the agricultural supply-side structural reform and guaranteeing the effective supply of agricultural products. In this paper, on the basis of analyzing the situation of animal products in the past 10 years in Sichuan Province, using the Grey System Theory, and adopting GM (1, 1) Model, the supply of animal products in Sichuan Province in the next 10 years is forecast, through which the result shows that the model is highly precise and reliable. It concludes that, in the next 10 years, the output of animal products in Sichuan Province will increase in general year by year, except for somewhat decrease in that of herbivorous animals like cattle, sheep and rabbits in a few cities and regions, as regional difference exists. In the future, guidance provided for the development of husbandry should be based on the guarantee of products supply, change of consumers' concept and increase of investment in science and technology, in order to promote the agricultural supply-side structural reform.
