摘要：Over the past 100 years there has been an almost unbroken rise in both automotive ownership and use. Its evolution has been a product of powerful positive feedback mechanisms leading to a locking in of the automotive mode as the dominant element of transport systems. But there are now a number of social, economic, technological and environmental changes the coincidence of which are bringing fundamental and far reaching changes to our urban transport systems. The automobile in its ubiquitous internal combustion powered privately owned form is progressively giving way to, variously, car sharing, electric powertrains and autonomous driving systems. This special issue’s review of the Future of Transport looks at both the causes and effects of these changes. In terms of the phenomenon of peak car, its socio-economic drivers are examined in the context of changing urban demographics and the extent to which it is becoming a global phenomenon. Environmental drivers of change are examined in the context of climate change, public transport efficiency, rebates for retiring old higher polluting vehicles and fuel efficiency standards. The emergence of the electric powered car (EV) and its likely rapid replacement of internal combustion engined vehicles (ICVs) is shown to be a key agent in the transformation of our transport systems. Technology is identified as an equally important driver through its enabling of car sharing and autonomous driving systems. As the new forms of usage and powering of vehicles progressively become integrated, new forms of transport are likely to emerge and blur the distinction between private and public transport. In this way transport as a service (TaaS) is beginning to emerge and the era or private ownership of cars recede.
关键词：Path dependence ; Autonomous cars ; Electric cars ; Car sharing ; Peak car ; Peak oil
