期刊名称：International Journal for Research in Vocational Education and Training (IJRVET)
印刷版ISSN：2197-8646
出版年度：2017
卷号：9
期号：1
出版社：European Research Network in Vocational Education and Training (VETNET), European Educational Research Association
摘要：In monetary policymaking, central bankers have long pointed out the importance of measuring the expectations of financial market participants, households, and firms —especially with regard to inflation and the central bank’s so-called “reaction function” to changes in the economic outlook. In addition to model- and market-implied measures, there has been a growing interest in and reliance on survey-based measures of subjective expectations. This article describes two major innovative survey initiatives conducted by the New York Fed to measure policy-relevant expectations of households and market participants: the Survey of Consumer Expectations, and the Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Market Participants. A key feature of these surveys is its use of a probabilistic question format to elicit the likelihood respondents assign to different future events. We discuss the advantages of using probabilistic questions, illustrate their value in more fully measuring beliefs and uncertainty, and document the pervasiveness and importance of heterogeneity in beliefs among our survey respondents.
