期刊名称：International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
电子版ISSN：2146-4553
出版年度：2019
卷号：9
期号：5
页码：322-330
DOI：10.32479/ijeep.7755
出版社：EconJournals
摘要：The natural gas price is an important and often decisive variable for economic policy makers. Many studies have been developed in order to establish
a stochastic process that can represent the movements or the returns of natural gas prices or variations of such prices time series to forecast price
expectations. This work aims to study the relationship between natural gas and crude oil prices in the international market, proposing to investigate
its nature and long term equilibrium, through the development of adequate econometric models for determining future expectations of major natural
gas price benchmarks, or of their returns. In order to accomplish this, time series for both benchmark crude oil and natural gas prices are subjected
to statistical tests with the purpose of verifying the underlying hypotheses behind the appropriate autoregressive dynamic models. The conditional
heteroskedasticity and non-normality of the return series, which are prevalent characteristics in energy markets, are considered when elaborating
these models. To reach the purpose of this work weekly natural gas and crude oil prices benchmarks traded in the international market were collected.
关键词：Natural Gas Prices; Crude Oil Prices; Cointegration; Causality; Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model
其他关键词：Natural Gas Prices; Crude Oil Prices; Cointegration; Causality; ARDL Model
