期刊名称：International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
电子版ISSN：2146-4553
出版年度：2019
卷号：9
期号：5
页码：433-441
DOI：10.32479/ijeep.7870
出版社：EconJournals
摘要：Regional energy planning under uncertainty is an important concept in energy-economy models which makes the planning outcomes closer to reality
and enables the decision maker to select the best decision. Reliability of local energy supply and the possibility of long-term access to resources
and emissions reduction is an essential step. In this study, an urban energy demand which is supplied by electricity network is investigated with an
optimal combination of alternative energy resources such as solar, wind and natural gas during the next 10 years. The optimal combination of fossil
energy as well as renewable energies are determined by goal stochastic programming model. Isfahan province in Iran has been selected as a case
study. Empirical results indicate that due to the importance of investment and operation costs, the dominant share of energy supply will belong to
natural gas, while the shares of solar and wind energies remain constant in the next decade. In sum, the share of solar and wind energies increases by
8% in 10 years and therefore, it is not necessary to increase electricity supply by the network in order to meet annual increasing demand. CO2
and
NOx
emissions will decrease significantly.
关键词：Stochastic Programming; Goal Programming; Local Energy Planning; Iran
其他关键词：Stochastic programming; Goal programming; Local energy planning; Iran
